Measurement error affects risk estimates for recruitment to the Hudson River stock of striped bass

We examined the consequences of ignoring the distinction between measurement error and natural variability in an assessment of risk to the Hudson River stock of striped bass posed by entrainment at the Bowline Point, Indian Point, and Roseton power plants. Risk was defined as the probability that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more, relative to the equilibrium value, at least once during the time periods examined (1, 5, 10, and 15 years). Measurement error, estimated using two abundance indices from independent beach seine surveys conducted on the Hudson River, accounted for 50% of the variability in one index and 56% of the variability in the other. If a measurement error of 50% was ignored and all of the variability in abundance was attributed to natural causes, the risk that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more after 15 years was 0.308 at the current level of entrainment mortality (11%). However, the risk decreased almost tenfold (0.032) if a measurement error of 50% was considered. The change in risk attributable to decreasing the entrainment mortality rate from 11 to 0% was very small (0.009) and similar in magnitude to the change in risk associated with an action proposed in Amendment #5 to the Interstate Fishery Management Plan for Atlantic striped bass (0.006)--an increase in the instantaneous fishing mortality rate from 0.33 to 0.4. The proposed increase in fishing mortality was not considered an adverse environmental impact, which suggests that potentially costly efforts to reduce entrainment mortality on the Hudson River stock of striped bass are not warranted.     

Enrichment of a microbial culture capable of degrading endosulphate, the toxic metabolite of endosulfan

AIMS: The aim of this study was to isolate a source of enzymes capable of degrading endosulphate (endosulfan sulphate), the toxic metabolite of the pesticide endosulfan. METHODS AND RESULTS: A microbial broth culture capable of degrading endosulphate was enriched from endosulfan-contaminated soil by providing the metabolite as the sole source of sulphur in broth culture. No microbial growth was observed in the absence of endosulphate. In the presence of endosulphate, growth of the culture occurred with the concomitant formation of three chlorine-containing compounds. Thin layer chromatography and gas chromatography--mass spectral analysis identified these metabolites as endosulfan monoaldehyde, 1,2,3,4,7,7-hexachloro-5,6-bis(methylene)bicyclo[2.2.1]-2-heptene and 1,2,3,4,7,7-hexachloro-5-hydroxymethylene-6-methylenebicyclo[2.2.1]-2-heptene. The second and third compounds have not been reported in previous metabolic studies. The enriched culture was also able to utilize alpha- and beta-endosulfan as sulphur sources, each producing the hydrolysis product endosulfan monoaldehyde as the sole chlorine-containing metabolite. Alpha-endosulfan was more readily hydrolysed than the beta-isomer. CONCLUSIONS: This study isolated a mixed microbial culture capable of degrading endosulphate. The products of degradation were characterized as novel endosulfan metabolites. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: This study describes the isolation of a mixed microbial culture that is potentially a valuable source of hydrolysing enzymes for use in enzymatic bioremediation, particularly of endosulphate and alpha-endosulfan residues.     

Identifying and managing adverse environmental health effects: 2. Outdoor air pollution

AIR POLLUTION CONTRIBUTES TO PREVENTABLE ILLNESS AND DEATH. Subgroups of patients who appear to be more sensitive to the effects of air pollution include young children, the elderly and people with existing chronic cardiac and respiratory disease such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma. It is unclear whether air pollution contributes to the development of asthma, but it does trigger asthma episodes. Physicians are in a position to identify patients at particular risk of health effects from air pollution exposure and to suggest timely and appropriate actions that these patients can take to protect themselves. A simple tool that uses the CH²OPD² mnemonic (Community, Home, Hobbies, Occupation, Personal habits, Diet and Drugs) can help physicians take patients'' environmental exposure histories to assess those who may be at risk. As public health advocates, physicians contribute to the primary prevention of illness and death related to air pollution in the population. In this article we review the origins of air pollutants, the pathophysiology of health effects, the burden of illness and the clinical implications of smog exposure using the illustrative case of an adolescent patient with asthma.Case A 16-year-old girl and her mother visit their family physician in July because the daughter woke up at 6 am that morning with shortness of breath, a cough and tightness in her chest. The girl has a history of asthma and used salbutamol soon after the onset of symptoms, with some but not total relief. She reports having had no symptoms during the previous month. She had a few episodes of wheezing the previous summer, which resolved with the use of salbutamol, and a cough that persisted for 2 weeks after an upper respiratory tract infection in the winter. She has no history of allergies, hayfever or other medical problems. She is a nonsmoker and has no family history of allergies. Audible wheezing is detected on physical examination, but the girl does not appear to be in distress. Her vital signs are normal, as are the results of the ear-nose-throat and cardiovascular examinations. Respiratory examination reveals wheezing throughout chest, no focal findings and a centrally placed trachea. The girl''s calves are soft and nontender, and there is no evidence of ankle edema. Her peak expiratory flow is 240 L/min (expected for height 400 L/min). Spirometry testing is unavailable. Fifteen minutes after 2 puffs of salbutamol her peak expiratory flow increases to 320 L/min. To identify possible exposures that may have contributed to the asthma episode, the physician quickly takes an environmental exposure history using the CH²OPD² mnemonic — Community, Home, Hobbies, Occupation, Personal habits, Drugs and Diet (1Table 1Open in a separate windowQuestions surrounding this case: What was the patient''s exposure to outdoor air pollutants? How should the patient and family be counselled about dealing with these trigger factors? What are the possible inducers and triggers from indoor air pollution? How can the patient and family find out about the status of outdoor air quality in their community?     

Issues and strategies in the DNA identification of World Trade Center victims

Identification of the nearly 3000 victims of the World Trade Center attack, represented by about 15,000 body parts, rests heavily on DNA. Reference DNA profiles are often from relatives rather than from the deceased themselves. With so large a set of victims, coincidental similarities between non-relatives abound. Therefore considerable care is necessary to succeed in correlating references with correct victims while avoiding spurious assignments. Typically multiple relatives are necessary to establish the identity of a victim. We describe a 3-stage paradigm--collapse, screen, test--to organize the work of sorting out the identities. Inter alia we present a simple and general formula for the likelihood ratio governing practically any potential relationship between two DNA profiles.     

Dependency effects in multi-locus match probabilities

For finite populations, differences in individual histories can cause between-locus allelic dependencies even for unlinked loci. The main motivation for this study is to quantify the effect of such dependencies on genotypic match probabilities. We compare the two-locus match probability, the probability that two individuals (four gametes) chosen at random will have the same genotype at both loci, with the probability computed as the product of the one-locus match probabilities. It is demonstrated that the product rule probability always underestimates the two-locus match probability. For highly mutable minisatellite loci, these probabilities can differ by an order of magnitude or more. A simplified three-locus problem is explored, providing evidence that the degree of under-estimation worsens for more loci.     

Evaluation of an internal positive control for Cryptosporidium and Giardia testing in water samples

AIMS: An internal positive control for Cryptosporidium and Giardia monitoring was evaluated for use in routine water monitoring quality control. The control, known as ColorSeed C&G (BTF Pty Ltd, Sydney, Australia), is a suspension containing exactly 100 Cryptosporidium oocysts and 100 Giardia cysts that have been modified by attachment of Texas Red to the cell wall, allowing them to be differentiated from unmodified oocysts and cysts. The control enables recovery efficiencies to be determined for every water sample analysed. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 494 water samples were seeded with ColorSeed C&G and with unlabelled Cryptosporidium and Giardia and then analysed. Additionally, the robustness of the ColorSeed labelling was challenged with various chemical treatments. Recoveries were significantly lower for the ColorSeed Texas Red labelled Cryptosporidium and Giardia than recoveries of unlabelled Cryptosporidium and Giardia. However, the differences in recoveries were small. On average ColorSeed Cryptosporidium recoveries were 3.3% lower than unlabelled Cryptosporidium, and ColorSeed Giardia recoveries were 4% lower than unlabelled Giardia. CONCLUSIONS: ColorSeed C&G is suitable for use as an internal positive control for routine monitoring of both treated and raw water samples. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The small differences in recoveries are unlikely to limit the usefulness of ColorSeed C&G as an internal positive control. The ColorSeed labelling was found to be robust after different treatments.     

The development of molecular fluorescent switches

Molecular systems in which fluorescence switches between 'on' and 'off' states when driven by chemical stimuli can be designed according to a few principles. The photochemical mechanisms examined are photoinduced electron transfer, internal charge transfer and excimer formation, with emphasis on the first category. These designs open the way to sharp signalling of small chemical species that perform critical biological functions.     

Quantitative assessment of IgG antibodies to Helicobacter pylori and outcome of ischaemic heart disease

Criticisms of serological studies on Helicobacter pylori and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) include: undiagnosed heart disease in live controls; no assessment of severity or outcome of IHD; and qualitative not quantitative measurements of IgG to the bacteria. The aim was to assess quantitatively IgG levels specific for H. pylori (ng ml(-1)) among patients who survived a myocardial infarction (MI) with those who died of IHD. Sera were from four groups: (1) men who survived one MI; (2) men matched for age and socioeconomic background to group 1; (3) individuals who died suddenly of IHD; (4) accidental deaths matched for age and sex to group 3. Levels of IgG to H. pylori increased with age (P<0.005) but were not associated with smoking or socioeconomic groups. There was a correlation between IgG to the bacteria and decreasing socioeconomic levels only among group 1 (P<0.01). IgG levels were higher for subjects who died of heart disease (median=151 ng ml(-1)) compared with survivors (median=88 ng ml(-1)) (P=0.034) and higher for survivors compared with their controls (median=58 ng ml(-1)) (P=0.039). Future serological studies of H. pylori in relation to IHD should be quantitative and severity of disease considered in analyses.     

Effects of autonomic disruption and inactivity on venous vascular function

The effects of autonomic disruption and inactivity were studied on the venous vascular system. Forty-eight subjects, 24 with spinal cord injury (SCI) and 12 sedentary and 12 active able-bodied controls, participated in this study. Peripheral autonomic data were obtained to estimate sympathetic vasomotor control [low-frequency component of systolic blood pressure (LF(SBP))]. Vascular parameters were determined using strain-gauge venous occlusion plethysmography: venous capacitance (VC), venous emptying rate (VER), and total venous outflow (VO(t)). An additional vascular parameter was calculated: venous compliance [(VC/occlusion pressure) x 100]. VC and VO(t) were significantly different (SCI < sedentary < active). VER adjusted for VC was not different for any group comparison, whereas venous compliance was significantly lower in the SCI group than in the able-bodied groups and in the sedentary group compared with the active group. Regression analysis for the total group revealed a significant relationship between LF(SBP) and venous compliance (r = 0.64, P < 0.0001). After controlling for LF(SBP) through analysis of covariance, we found that mean differences for all venous vascular parameters did not change from unadjusted mean values. Our findings suggest that in subjects with SCI, the loss of sympathetic vasomotor tone contributes more than inactivity to reductions in venous vascular function. Heightened VC, VO(t), vasomotor tone, and venous compliance in the active group compared with the sedentary group imply that regular endurance training contributes to optimal venous vascular function and peripheral autonomic integrity.