Do species distribution models explain spatial structure within tree species ranges?

Aim To evaluate the ability of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the spatial structure of tree species within their geographical ranges (how trees are distributed within their ranges). Location Continental Spain. Methods We used an extensive dataset consisting of c. 90,000 plots (1 plot km^?2) where presence/absence data for 23 common Mediterranean and Atlantic tree species had been surveyed. We first generated SDMs relating the presence or absence of each species to a set of 16 environmental predictors, following a stepwise modelling process based on maximum likelihood methods. Superimposing spatial correlograms generated from the predictions of the SDMs over those generated from the raw data allowed a model–observation comparison of the nature, scale and intensity (level of aggregation) of spatial structure with the species ranges. Results SDMs predicted accurately the nature and scale of the spatial structure of trees. However, for most species, the observed intensity of spatial structure (level of aggregation of species in space) was substantially greater than that predicted by the SDMs. On average, the intensity of spatial aggregation was twice that predicted by SDMs. In addition, we also found a negative correlation between intensity of aggregation and species range size. Main conclusions Standard SDM predictions of spatial structure patterns differ among species. SDMs are apparently able to reproduce both the scale and intensity of species spatial structure within their ranges. However, one or more missing processes not included in SDMs results in species being substantially more aggregated in space than can be captured by the SDMs. This result adds to recent calls for a new generation of more biologically realistic SDMs. In particular, future SDMs should incorporate ecological processes that are likely to increase the intensity of spatial aggregation, such as source–sink dynamics, fine‐scale environmental heterogeneity and disequilibrium.     

Predictive Modelling of Contagious Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges “bottom up”, as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated–pre- and post-PPCDAM (“Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia”)–the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is currently experiencing low deforestation rates due to its isolation.     

Distribution of cephalopods recorded in the diet of the Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) around South Georgia

The cephalopod component of the diet of Patagonian toothfish, Dissostichus eleginoides, around South Georgia was analysed from stomach contents collected between March and May 2000. Cephalopods occurred in 7% of D. eleginoides stomachs. A total of 363 cephalopod beaks were found, comprising 16 cephalopod species, of which 15 had not been previously recorded in the diet. Octopodid A (probably Pareledone turqueti) was the most important cephalopod species by number of lower beaks (36 beaks; 20.2% of the lower beaks) and Kondakovia longimana was the most important in terms of estimated mass (76% of the cephalopod component). When the cephalopod component of D. eleginoides was compared with other predators between March and May 2000, D. eleginoides fed more on octopods (25% of the lower beaks) than black-browed and grey-headed albatrosses (<1% of the lower beaks). The low frequency of the squid Martialia hyadesi in the diet of D. eleginoides around South Georgia was also noticed in the diet of albatrosses, and suggests that M. hyadesi was not present in these waters in 2000 (probably due to migratory movements or reproduction failure), despite being a candidate for commercial exploitation. The presence of the squid Mesonychoteuthis hamiltoni in the diet of D. eleginoides and being caught by a longline hook whilst presumably feeding on D. eleginoides, may indicate that juveniles of Mesonychoteuthis hamiltoni are prey of D. eleginoides adults, and when Mesonychoteuthis hamiltoni reach a large size as adults, they become the predator.     

Co-variation of tonality in the music and speech of different cultures

Whereas the use of discrete pitch intervals is characteristic of most musical traditions, the size of the intervals and the way in which they are used is culturally specific. Here we examine the hypothesis that these differences arise because of a link between the tonal characteristics of a culture's music and its speech. We tested this idea by comparing pitch intervals in the traditional music of three tone language cultures (Chinese, Thai and Vietnamese) and three non-tone language cultures (American, French and German) with pitch intervals between voiced speech segments. Changes in pitch direction occur more frequently and pitch intervals are larger in the music of tone compared to non-tone language cultures. More frequent changes in pitch direction and larger pitch intervals are also apparent in the speech of tone compared to non-tone language cultures. These observations suggest that the different tonal preferences apparent in music across cultures are closely related to the differences in the tonal characteristics of voiced speech.     

Analysis and visualization of animal movement

The interdisciplinary workshop 'Analysis and Visualization of Moving Objects' was held at the Lorentz Centre in Leiden, The Netherlands, from 27 June to 1 July 2011. It brought together international specialists from ecology, computer science and geographical information science actively involved in the exploration, visualization and analysis of moving objects, such as marine reptiles, mammals, birds, storms, ships, cars and pedestrians. The aim was to share expertise, methodologies, data and common questions between different fields, and to work towards making significant advances in movement research. A data challenge based on GPS tracking of lesser black-backed gulls (Larus fuscus) was used to stimulate initial discussions, cross-fertilization between research groups and to serve as an initial focus for activities during the workshop.     

An Empirical Explanation of the Speed-Distance Effect

Understanding motion perception continues to be the subject of much debate, a central challenge being to account for why the speeds and directions seen accord with neither the physical movements of objects nor their projected movements on the retina. Here we investigate the varied perceptions of speed that occur when stimuli moving across the retina traverse different projected distances (the speed-distance effect). By analyzing a database of moving objects projected onto an image plane we show that this phenomenology can be quantitatively accounted for by the frequency of occurrence of image speeds generated by perspective transformation. These results indicate that speed-distance effects are determined empirically from accumulated past experience with the relationship between image speeds and moving objects.