Hazard rate models with covariates.

Many problems, particularly in medical research, concern the relationship between certain covariates and the time to occurrence of an event. The hazard or failure rate function provides a conceptually simple representation of time to occurrence data that readily adapts to include such generalizations as competing risks and covariates that vary with time. Two partially parametric models for the hazard function are considered. These are the proportional hazards model of Cox (1972) and the class of log-linear or accelerated failure time models. A synthesis of the literature on estimation from these models under prospective sampling indicates that, although important advances have occurred during the past decade, further effort is warranted on such topics as distribution theory, tests of fit, robustness, and the full utilization of a methodology that permits non-standard features. It is further argued that a good deal of fruitful research could be done on applying the same models under a variety of other sampling schemes. A discussion of estimation from case-control studies illustrates this point.     

Effects of cooling water discharge on the structure and dynamics of epilithic algal communities in the northern Baltic

The Forsmark Biotest Basin is a shallow coastal ecosystem that receives brackish cooling-water discharge from a nuclear power plant. The effects of the discharge on epilithic algal communities were investigated by analysing samples taken every third week throughout one year at 11 sites differentially affected by temperature and/or flow rate enhancement. Community variation was summarized in a canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) of species abundances as a function of site and date. The temperature increase favoured blue-green algae at the expense of red and brown algae. Blue-green algae were however abundant in summer in stagnant water, whether heated or not, and some red and brown algae became abundant in winter in heated sites with flowing water. Green algae and diatoms increased in biomass in the heated sites, but not in relative cover-abundance. The absence of ice and snow cover at sites with heated and/or flowing water caused autumn species to persist into winter, because of the higher light intensity (compared with natural conditions) and the absence of the mechanical abrasion by ice. The thermal discharge lowered species diversity (Shannon-Weaver index) both in summer and winter at sites with flowing water, but not at sites with quiescent or stagnant water. CCA showed alternate periods of stability and rapid change within the seasonal cycle. Individual species were placed according to their optimum; red and brown algae in winter/spring, green algae in spring/summer, blue-green algae in summer, and diatoms at various times. Exceptions to this pattern were species endo- or epiphytic on species of a different group. Analysis of the effects of temperature, flow rate and ice cover on the seasonal pattern of particular species showed that different species respond in individualistic ways to different combinations of these environmental variables.     

Cost of management of patients with haemophilia.

The cost of managing 114 adult haemophiliacs in the west of Scotland was assessed for the period 1 March 1971 to 28 February 1974. Altogether 23 of them (20%) accounted for 80% of the resources used. The cost of hospital treatment of these patients during the period was compared with the predicted cost of home treatment, given the availability of freeze-dried factor VIII concentrate in sufficient amounts. We calculate that adequate on-demand home treatment would cost only 16% more than the present treatment, which is substantially less efficient.     

Plant respiration: Controlled by photosynthesis or biomass?

Two simplifying hypotheses have been proposed for whole‐plant respiration. One links respiration to photosynthesis; the other to biomass. Using a first‐principles carbon balance model with a prescribed live woody biomass turnover, applied at a forest research site where multidecadal measurements are available for comparison, we show that if turnover is fast the accumulation of respiring biomass is low and respiration depends primarily on photosynthesis; while if turnover is slow the accumulation of respiring biomass is high and respiration depends primarily on biomass. But the first scenario is inconsistent with evidence for substantial carry‐over of fixed carbon between years, while the second implies far too great an increase in respiration during stand development—leading to depleted carbohydrate reserves and an unrealistically high mortality risk. These two mutually incompatible hypotheses are thus both incorrect. Respiration is not linearly related either to photosynthesis or to biomass, but it is more strongly controlled by recent photosynthates (and reserve availability) than by total biomass.     

A unifying conceptual model for the environmental responses of isoprene emissions from plants

Background and Aims

Isoprene is the most important volatile organic compound emitted by land plants in terms of abundance and environmental effects. Controls on isoprene emission rates include light, temperature, water supply and CO₂ concentration. A need to quantify these controls has long been recognized. There are already models that give realistic results, but they are complex, highly empirical and require separate responses to different drivers. This study sets out to find a simpler, unifying principle.

Methods

A simple model is presented based on the idea of balancing demands for reducing power (derived from photosynthetic electron transport) in primary metabolism versus the secondary pathway that leads to the synthesis of isoprene. This model''s ability to account for key features in a variety of experimental data sets is assessed.

Key results

The model simultaneously predicts the fundamental responses observed in short-term experiments, namely: (1) the decoupling between carbon assimilation and isoprene emission; (2) a continued increase in isoprene emission with photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) at high PAR, after carbon assimilation has saturated; (3) a maximum of isoprene emission at low internal CO₂ concentration (c_i) and an asymptotic decline thereafter with increasing c_i; (4) maintenance of high isoprene emissions when carbon assimilation is restricted by drought; and (5) a temperature optimum higher than that of photosynthesis, but lower than that of isoprene synthase activity.

Conclusions

A simple model was used to test the hypothesis that reducing power available to the synthesis pathway for isoprene varies according to the extent to which the needs of carbon assimilation are satisfied. Despite its simplicity the model explains much in terms of the observed response of isoprene to external drivers as well as the observed decoupling between carbon assimilation and isoprene emission. The concept has the potential to improve global-scale modelling of vegetation isoprene emission.     

The Teliospores of Puccinia smyrnii (Uredinales)

The morphology of the teliospores of Puccinia smyrnii has been variously described as warted, or reticulate, or a combination of both patterns. Spores were examined by LM and SEM, and shown to be irregularly warted. The sequence of development of the spores was examined by TEM. Four phases of wall differentiation were recognised. The ornamentation results from a differential deposition of secondary wall components, which are concentrated into invaginations of the cytoplasm. The subsequent exsertion of these invaginations, and concomitant disappearance of the primary wall, reveal the irregular warts of the mature spore. This mode of ornament formation is compared with other rust spore forms, and contrasted with that already outlined for Puccinia chaerophylli, a truly reticulatespored Umbelliferous rust. Combined SEM and TEM observations suggest an explanation for the erroneous LM interpretations.     

Occupancy modelling as a new approach to assess supranational trends using opportunistic data: a pilot study for the damselfly Calopteryx splendens

There is limited information available on changes in biodiversity at the European scale, because there is a lack of data from standardised monitoring for most species groups. However, a great number of observations made without a standardised field protocol is available in many countries for many species. Such opportunistic data offer an alternative source of information, but unfortunately such data suffer from non-standardised observation effort and geographical bias. Here we describe a new approach to compiling supranational trends using opportunistic data which adjusts for these two major imperfections. The non-standardised observation effort is dealt with by occupancy modelling, and the unequal geographical distribution of sites by a weighting procedure. The damselfly Calopteryx splendens was chosen as our test species. The data were collected from five countries (Ireland, Great Britain, the Netherlands, Belgium and France), covering the period 1990–2008. We used occupancy models to estimate the annual number of occupied 1 × 1 km sites per country. Occupancy models use presence-absence data, account for imperfect detection of species, and thereby correct for between-year variability in observation effort. The occupancy models were run per country in a Bayesian mode of inference using JAGS. The occupancy estimates per country were then aggregated to assess the supranational trend in the number of occupied 1 × 1 km². To adjust for the unequal geographical distribution of surveyed sites, we weighted the countries according to the number of sites surveyed and the range of the species per country. The distribution of C. splendens has increased significantly in the combined five countries. Our trial demonstrated that a supranational trend in distribution can be derived from opportunistic data, while adjusting for observation effort and geographical bias. This opens new perspectives for international monitoring of biodiversity.     

Nonparametric correction for covariate measurement error in a stratified Cox model

Stratified Cox regression models with large number of strata and small stratum size are useful in many settings, including matched case-control family studies. In the presence of measurement error in covariates and a large number of strata, we show that extensions of existing methods fail either to reduce the bias or to correct the bias under nonsymmetric distributions of the true covariate or the error term. We propose a nonparametric correction method for the estimation of regression coefficients, and show that the estimators are asymptotically consistent for the true parameters. Small sample properties are evaluated in a simulation study. The method is illustrated with an analysis of Framingham data.