Hazard rate models with covariates.

Many problems, particularly in medical research, concern the relationship between certain covariates and the time to occurrence of an event. The hazard or failure rate function provides a conceptually simple representation of time to occurrence data that readily adapts to include such generalizations as competing risks and covariates that vary with time. Two partially parametric models for the hazard function are considered. These are the proportional hazards model of Cox (1972) and the class of log-linear or accelerated failure time models. A synthesis of the literature on estimation from these models under prospective sampling indicates that, although important advances have occurred during the past decade, further effort is warranted on such topics as distribution theory, tests of fit, robustness, and the full utilization of a methodology that permits non-standard features. It is further argued that a good deal of fruitful research could be done on applying the same models under a variety of other sampling schemes. A discussion of estimation from case-control studies illustrates this point.     

Fate of ochratoxin A in brewing.

The fate of ochratoxin A in brewing was investigated by adding (3H)ochratoxin A to the raw materials at 1- and 10-mug/g levels during mashing in a conventional microbrewing process. The results indicated that large portions (28 to 39%) of the added toxin were recovered in spent grains, with less recovery in the yeast (8 to 20%) and beer (14 to 18%). About 38 and 12% of the added toxin at levels of 1 and 10 mug/g, respectively, were degraded during brewing.     

Cost of management of patients with haemophilia.

The cost of managing 114 adult haemophiliacs in the west of Scotland was assessed for the period 1 March 1971 to 28 February 1974. Altogether 23 of them (20%) accounted for 80% of the resources used. The cost of hospital treatment of these patients during the period was compared with the predicted cost of home treatment, given the availability of freeze-dried factor VIII concentrate in sufficient amounts. We calculate that adequate on-demand home treatment would cost only 16% more than the present treatment, which is substantially less efficient.     

Plant respiration: Controlled by photosynthesis or biomass?

Two simplifying hypotheses have been proposed for whole‐plant respiration. One links respiration to photosynthesis; the other to biomass. Using a first‐principles carbon balance model with a prescribed live woody biomass turnover, applied at a forest research site where multidecadal measurements are available for comparison, we show that if turnover is fast the accumulation of respiring biomass is low and respiration depends primarily on photosynthesis; while if turnover is slow the accumulation of respiring biomass is high and respiration depends primarily on biomass. But the first scenario is inconsistent with evidence for substantial carry‐over of fixed carbon between years, while the second implies far too great an increase in respiration during stand development—leading to depleted carbohydrate reserves and an unrealistically high mortality risk. These two mutually incompatible hypotheses are thus both incorrect. Respiration is not linearly related either to photosynthesis or to biomass, but it is more strongly controlled by recent photosynthates (and reserve availability) than by total biomass.     

A unifying conceptual model for the environmental responses of isoprene emissions from plants

Background and Aims

Isoprene is the most important volatile organic compound emitted by land plants in terms of abundance and environmental effects. Controls on isoprene emission rates include light, temperature, water supply and CO₂ concentration. A need to quantify these controls has long been recognized. There are already models that give realistic results, but they are complex, highly empirical and require separate responses to different drivers. This study sets out to find a simpler, unifying principle.

Methods

A simple model is presented based on the idea of balancing demands for reducing power (derived from photosynthetic electron transport) in primary metabolism versus the secondary pathway that leads to the synthesis of isoprene. This model''s ability to account for key features in a variety of experimental data sets is assessed.

Key results

The model simultaneously predicts the fundamental responses observed in short-term experiments, namely: (1) the decoupling between carbon assimilation and isoprene emission; (2) a continued increase in isoprene emission with photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) at high PAR, after carbon assimilation has saturated; (3) a maximum of isoprene emission at low internal CO₂ concentration (c_i) and an asymptotic decline thereafter with increasing c_i; (4) maintenance of high isoprene emissions when carbon assimilation is restricted by drought; and (5) a temperature optimum higher than that of photosynthesis, but lower than that of isoprene synthase activity.

Conclusions

A simple model was used to test the hypothesis that reducing power available to the synthesis pathway for isoprene varies according to the extent to which the needs of carbon assimilation are satisfied. Despite its simplicity the model explains much in terms of the observed response of isoprene to external drivers as well as the observed decoupling between carbon assimilation and isoprene emission. The concept has the potential to improve global-scale modelling of vegetation isoprene emission.     

The Teliospores of Puccinia smyrnii (Uredinales)

The morphology of the teliospores of Puccinia smyrnii has been variously described as warted, or reticulate, or a combination of both patterns. Spores were examined by LM and SEM, and shown to be irregularly warted. The sequence of development of the spores was examined by TEM. Four phases of wall differentiation were recognised. The ornamentation results from a differential deposition of secondary wall components, which are concentrated into invaginations of the cytoplasm. The subsequent exsertion of these invaginations, and concomitant disappearance of the primary wall, reveal the irregular warts of the mature spore. This mode of ornament formation is compared with other rust spore forms, and contrasted with that already outlined for Puccinia chaerophylli, a truly reticulatespored Umbelliferous rust. Combined SEM and TEM observations suggest an explanation for the erroneous LM interpretations.     

Occupancy modelling as a new approach to assess supranational trends using opportunistic data: a pilot study for the damselfly Calopteryx splendens

There is limited information available on changes in biodiversity at the European scale, because there is a lack of data from standardised monitoring for most species groups. However, a great number of observations made without a standardised field protocol is available in many countries for many species. Such opportunistic data offer an alternative source of information, but unfortunately such data suffer from non-standardised observation effort and geographical bias. Here we describe a new approach to compiling supranational trends using opportunistic data which adjusts for these two major imperfections. The non-standardised observation effort is dealt with by occupancy modelling, and the unequal geographical distribution of sites by a weighting procedure. The damselfly Calopteryx splendens was chosen as our test species. The data were collected from five countries (Ireland, Great Britain, the Netherlands, Belgium and France), covering the period 1990–2008. We used occupancy models to estimate the annual number of occupied 1 × 1 km sites per country. Occupancy models use presence-absence data, account for imperfect detection of species, and thereby correct for between-year variability in observation effort. The occupancy models were run per country in a Bayesian mode of inference using JAGS. The occupancy estimates per country were then aggregated to assess the supranational trend in the number of occupied 1 × 1 km². To adjust for the unequal geographical distribution of surveyed sites, we weighted the countries according to the number of sites surveyed and the range of the species per country. The distribution of C. splendens has increased significantly in the combined five countries. Our trial demonstrated that a supranational trend in distribution can be derived from opportunistic data, while adjusting for observation effort and geographical bias. This opens new perspectives for international monitoring of biodiversity.     

Identification and characterization of 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci in the German cockroach,Blattella germanica

Primer sequences and initial characterization are presented for 10 microsatellite loci isolated from the German cockroach, Blattella germanica. In a sample of 30 individuals from a single population sample, all loci were polymorphic with two to 12 alleles segregating per locus and levels of observed heterozygosity ranging from 0.27 to 0.92. One locus showed a deficit of heterozygotes. Experimental conditions are described for polymerase chain reaction multiplexing, which enables the genotyping of eight loci in three electrophoretic runs consisting of one set of three and two sets of two markers. Seven primer sets cross‐amplify in the related Blattella asahinai.