How to Decide Whether to Move Species Threatened by Climate Change

Introducing species to areas outside their historical range to secure their future under climate change is a controversial strategy for preventing extinction. While the debate over the wisdom of this strategy continues, such introductions are already taking place. Previous frameworks for analysing the decision to introduce have lacked a quantifiable management objective and mathematically rigorous problem formulation. Here we develop the first rigorous quantitative framework for deciding whether or not a particular introduction should go ahead, which species to prioritize for introduction, and where and how to introduce them. It can also be used to compare introduction with alternative management actions, and to prioritise questions for future research. We apply the framework to a case study of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) in New Zealand. While simple and accessible, this framework can accommodate uncertainty in predictions and values. It provides essential support for the existing IUCN guidelines by presenting a quantitative process for better decision-making about conservation introductions.     

How should we grow cities to minimize their biodiversity impacts?

Urbanization causes severe environmental degradation and continues to increase in scale and intensity around the world, but little is known about how we should design cities to minimize their ecological impact. With a sprawling style of urban development, low intensity impact is spread across a wide area, and with a compact form of development intense impact is concentrated over a small area; it remains unclear which of these development styles has a lower overall ecological impact. Here, we compare the consequences of compact and sprawling urban growth patterns on bird distributions across the city of Brisbane, Australia. We predicted the impact on bird populations of adding 84 642 houses to the city in either a compact or sprawling design using statistical models of bird distributions. We show that urban growth of any type reduces bird distributions overall, but compact development substantially slows these reductions at the city scale. Urban‐sensitive species particularly benefited from compact development at the city scale because large green spaces were left intact, whereas the distributions of nonnative species expanded as a result of sprawling development. As well as minimizing ecological disruption, compact urban development maintains human access to public green spaces. However, backyards are smaller, which impacts opportunities for people to experience nature close to home. Our results suggest that cities built to minimize per capita ecological impact are characterized by high residential density, with large interstitial green spaces and small backyards, and that there are important trade‐offs between maintaining city‐wide species diversity and people's access to biodiversity in their own backyard.     

Prioritizing conservation investments for mammal species globally

We need to set priorities for conservation because we cannot do everything, everywhere, at the same time. We determined priority areas for investment in threat abatement actions, in both a cost-effective and spatially and temporally explicit way, for the threatened mammals of the world. Our analysis presents the first fine-resolution prioritization analysis for mammals at a global scale that accounts for the risk of habitat loss, the actions required to abate this risk, the costs of these actions and the likelihood of investment success. We evaluated the likelihood of success of investments using information on the past frequency and duration of legislative effectiveness at a country scale. The establishment of new protected areas was the action receiving the greatest investment, while restoration was never chosen. The resolution of the analysis and the incorporation of likelihood of success made little difference to this result, but affected the spatial location of these investments.     

Intradiscal application of rhBMP-7 does not induce regeneration in a canine model of spontaneous intervertebral disc degeneration

IntroductionStrategies for biological repair and regeneration of the intervertebral disc (IVD) by cell and tissue engineering are promising, but few have made it into a clinical setting. Recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein 7 (rhBMP-7) has been shown to stimulate matrix production by IVD cells in vitro and in vivo in animal models of induced IVD degeneration. The aim of this study was to determine the most effective dose of an intradiscal injection of rhBMP-7 in a spontaneous canine IVD degeneration model for translation into clinical application for patients with low back pain.MethodsCanine nucleus pulposus cells (NPCs) were cultured with rhBMP-7 to assess the anabolic effect of rhBMP-7 in vitro, and samples were evaluated for glycosaminoglycan (GAG) and DNA content, histology, and matrix-related gene expression. Three different dosages of rhBMP-7 (2.5 μg, 25 μg, and 250 μg) were injected in vivo into early degenerated IVDs of canines, which were followed up for six months by magnetic resonance imaging (T2-weighted images, T1rho and T2 maps). Post-mortem, the effects of rhBMP-7 were determined by radiography, computed tomography, and macroscopy, and by histological, biochemical (GAG, DNA, and collagen), and biomolecular analyses of IVD tissue.ResultsIn vitro, rhBMP-7 stimulated matrix production of canine NPCs as GAG deposition was enhanced, DNA content was maintained, and gene expression levels of ACAN and COL2A1 were significantly upregulated. Despite the wide dose range of rhBMP-7 (2.5 to 250 μg) administered in vivo, no regenerative effects were observed at the IVD level. Instead, extensive extradiscal bone formation was noticed after intradiscal injection of 25 μg and 250 μg of rhBMP-7.ConclusionsAn intradiscal bolus injection of 2.5 μg, 25 μg, and 250 μg rhBMP-7 showed no regenerative effects in a spontaneous canine IVD degeneration model. In contrast, intradiscal injection of 250 μg rhBMP-7, and to a lesser extent 25 μg rhBMP-7, resulted in extensive extradiscal bone formation, indicating that a bolus injection of rhBMP-7 alone cannot be used for treatment of IVD degeneration in human or canine patients.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13075-015-0625-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Support for the habitat amount hypothesis from a global synthesis of species density studies

Decades of research suggest that species richness depends on spatial characteristics of habitat patches, especially their size and isolation. In contrast, the habitat amount hypothesis predicts that (1) species richness in plots of fixed size (species density) is more strongly and positively related to the amount of habitat around the plot than to patch size or isolation; (2) habitat amount better predicts species density than patch size and isolation combined, (3) there is no effect of habitat fragmentation per se on species density and (4) patch size and isolation effects do not become stronger with declining habitat amount. Data on eight taxonomic groups from 35 studies around the world support these predictions. Conserving species density requires minimising habitat loss, irrespective of the configuration of the patches in which that habitat is contained.     

Making robust policy decisions using global biodiversity indicators

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.