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Petra Klepac Laura W. Pomeroy Ottar N. Bj?rnstad Thijs Kuiken Albert D.M.E. Osterhaus Jolianne M. Rijks 《Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society》2009,276(1666):2469-2476
Heterogeneities in transmission among hosts can be very important in shaping infectious disease dynamics. In mammals with strong social organization, such heterogeneities are often structured by functional stage: juveniles, subadults and adults. We investigate the importance of such stage-related heterogeneities in shaping the 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) outbreak in the Dutch Wadden Sea, when more than 40 per cent of the harbour seals were killed. We do this by comparing the statistical fit of a hierarchy of models with varying transmission complexity: homogeneous versus heterogeneous mixing and density- versus frequency-dependent transmission. We use the stranding data as a proxy for incidence and use Poisson likelihoods to estimate the ‘who acquires infection from whom’ (WAIFW) matrix. Statistically, the model with strong heterogeneous mixing and density-dependent transmission was found to best describe the transmission dynamics. However, patterns of incidence support a model of frequency-dependent transmission among adults and juveniles. Based on the maximum-likelihood WAIFW matrix estimates, we use the next-generation formalism to calculate an R0 between 2 and 2.5 for the Dutch 2002 PDV epidemic. 相似文献
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Metabolic acclimation to hypoxia in winter cereals : low temperature flooding increases adenylates and survival in ice encasement 下载免费PDF全文
Cold hardened seedlings of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. em Thell) show an hypoxic hardening response: an exposure to low temperature flooding increases the tolerance of plants to a subsequent ice encasement exposure. Seedlings of winter barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) do not show such a response in similar experimental conditions. During ice encasement, there are general declines in adenylate energy charge (AEC), total adenylates and ATP:ADP ratios in the crown tissues of two winter wheat cultivars, and a winter barley, but rates of decline are faster in the barley. When the ice period is preceded by low temperature flooding of the whole plant, levels of the adenylate components are raised significantly in the wheats, and to a lesser extent in the barley. The survival of plants in ice preceded by flooding is related to the increased initial level of adenylates at the onset of the ice encasement stress, and the maintenance of higher levels of adenylates and ATP in the early stages of ice encasement as a result of accelerated rates of glycolysis. Higher survival of both winter wheat and barley plants during ice encasement in the light is also associated with significantly higher levels of AEC and adenylates in the early stages of ice encasement. 相似文献
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Effect of Temperature on Respiration of Mitochondria and Shoot Segments from Cold hardened and Nonhardened Wheat and Rye Seedlings 总被引:13,自引:13,他引:0 下载免费PDF全文
The effect of temperature on respiration of mitochondria and tissue segments from three wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and one rye (Secale cereale L.) cultivar grown at 2 and 24 C has been examined. Discontinuities in Arrhenius plots of respiratory activity against temperature were observed for mitochondria and tissue segments from seedlings grown at both temperatures. The rates of respiration decreased abruptly below the transition temperatures, resulting in increased energy of activation values for respiration. Transition temperatures were observed from 6 to 10 C during tissue segment respiration, and from 10 to 14 C during respiration by isolated mitochondria. Respiratory control and efficiency of phosphorylation were not affected markedly by either reaction temperature or growth temperature of the seedlings. No correlation was observed between the cold hardiness of the cultivars and the temperature at which structural transitions occurred in the mitochondria. Dry matter content of the seedlings increased markedly during growth at 2 C, but no appreciable changes in the levels of mitochondrial protein were observed. The results support the view that changes other than fatty acid unsaturation are involved in the abrupt change in mitochondrial membrane properties at low temperature. 相似文献
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Dorsal and ventral subcutaneous, dilatable air pouches play a part in the social life of the Marabou stork. Inflation of the ventral pouch indicates the dominance of an individual over its neighbours whilst inflation of the dorsal pouch indicates apprehension. Both are inflated simultaneously during courtship. Air enters the ventral pouch by a complicated route within the left orbit. The dorsal pouch most probably receives air by way of the first anterior dorsal secondary bronchus of the lung and the cervical air sac. 相似文献
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Requirements for an ideal standard sampling system for defined periphyton communities are discussed. Several simple and inexpensive devices for both spatially discrete and continuous sampling modes are described and field tested in a variety of habitats. 相似文献
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Cardiac responses to graded treadmill exercise were compared in conscious dogs before and after excision of the sinoatrial node (SAN) and adjacent tissue along the sulcus terminalis. The chronotropic and dromotropic responses to dynamic exercise were compared with and without selective muscarinic (atropine) and/or beta-adrenergic (timolol) blockade. With the SAN intact, cardiac acceleration was prompt during onset of exercise and in proportion to work intensity. Immediately after SAN excision (1-7 days), pacemaker activity exhibited marked instability in rate and pacemaker location, with rapid shifts between atrial and junctional foci. Soon thereafter (1-2 wk), subsidiary atrial pacemakers (SAPs) assumed the primary pacemaker function. Although the SAP foci demonstrated stable heart rates and atrioventricular (AV) intervals at rest and during exercise, heart rates at rest and during steady-state exercise were reduced 34% from corresponding levels in the SAN-intact state, both with and without selective autonomic blockade. For control of dromotropic function, animals with SAP foci showed pronounced shortening in AV interval in conjunction with exercise that was further exacerbated by pretreatment with atropine. Eight weeks after excision of the primary SAN pacemakers, direct electrophysiological mapping localized the SAP foci to either the inferior right atrium along the sulcus terminalis or the dorsal cranial right atrium (in or near Bachmann's bundle). Animals with SAPs localized to the inferior right atrium had a more marked suppression in heart rate with a corresponding greater decrease in AV interval during exercise than dogs with SAP foci identified within the dorsal cranial right atrium. 相似文献