How the Polls Can Be Both Spot On and Dead Wrong: Using Choice Blindness to Shift Political Attitudes and Voter Intentions

Political candidates often believe they must focus their campaign efforts on a small number of swing voters open for ideological change. Based on the wisdom of opinion polls, this might seem like a good idea. But do most voters really hold their political attitudes so firmly that they are unreceptive to persuasion? We tested this premise during the most recent general election in Sweden, in which a left- and a right-wing coalition were locked in a close race. We asked our participants to state their voter intention, and presented them with a political survey of wedge issues between the two coalitions. Using a sleight-of-hand we then altered their replies to place them in the opposite political camp, and invited them to reason about their attitudes on the manipulated issues. Finally, we summarized their survey score, and asked for their voter intention again. The results showed that no more than 22% of the manipulated replies were detected, and that a full 92% of the participants accepted and endorsed our altered political survey score. Furthermore, the final voter intention question indicated that as many as 48% (±9.2%) were willing to consider a left-right coalition shift. This can be contrasted with the established polls tracking the Swedish election, which registered maximally 10% voters open for a swing. Our results indicate that political attitudes and partisan divisions can be far more flexible than what is assumed by the polls, and that people can reason about the factual issues of the campaign with considerable openness to change.     

Structural investigation of disordered stress proteins. Comparison of full-length dehydrins with isolated peptides of their conserved segments

Dehydrins constitute a class of intrinsically disordered proteins that are expressed under conditions of water-related stress. Characteristic of the dehydrins are some highly conserved stretches of seven to 17 residues that are repetitively scattered in their sequences, the K-, S-, Y-, and Lys-rich segments. In this study, we investigate the putative role of these segments in promoting structure. The analysis is based on comparative analysis of four full-length dehydrins from Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana; Cor47, Lti29, Lti30, and Rab18) and isolated peptide mimics of the K-, Y-, and Lys-rich segments. In physiological buffer, the circular dichroism spectra of the full-length dehydrins reveal overall disordered structures with a variable content of poly-Pro helices, a type of elongated secondary structure relying on bridging water molecules. Similar disordered structures are observed for the isolated peptides of the conserved segments. Interestingly, neither the full-length dehydrins nor their conserved segments are able to adopt specific structure in response to altered temperature, one of the factors that regulate their expression in vivo. There is also no structural response to the addition of metal ions, increased protein concentration, or the protein-stabilizing salt Na(2)SO(4). Taken together, these observations indicate that the dehydrins are not in equilibrium with high-energy folded structures. The result suggests that the dehydrins are highly evolved proteins, selected to maintain high configurational flexibility and to resist unspecific collapse and aggregation. The role of the conserved segments is thus not to promote tertiary structure, but to exert their biological function more locally upon interaction with specific biological targets, for example, by acting as beads on a string for specific recognition, interaction with membranes, or intermolecular scaffolding. In this perspective, it is notable that the Lys-rich segment in Cor47 and Lti29 shows sequence similarity with the animal chaperone HSP90.     

Phytoplankton distribution in the Caspian Sea during March 2001

Phytoplankton abundance, biomass and species composition of the Caspian Sea were evaluated by using samples collected from the Iranian (southern Caspian Sea) and southern Kazakhstan (eastern Caspian Sea) surface waters in March 2001. A total of 45 taxa were found in the samples (20 diatoms, 17 dinoflagellates and 8 others). Abundance and biomass of diatoms were high at the eastern stations, while dinoflagellates were dominant in terms of both biomass and abundance in the southern region. Average abundance and biomass were 40 000 ± 35 000 cell l⁻¹ and 580 ± 690 μg l⁻¹. The mean biomass value found here for the Middle and southern Caspian Sea in March are difficult to compare with the past due to limited information, but seems higher than previously registered values. Higher chlorophyll values were also apparent from the SeaWIFS images in 2001 compared to those in 1998. This is suggested to be due to decreased grazing of phytoplankton by zooplankton which is voraciously preyed by the recent invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi.     

Verzeichniss der auf einer Reise nach den quarnerischen Inseln gesammelten Gefäss-Pflanzen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Simulations of the NK cell immune synapse reveal that activation thresholds can be established by inhibitory receptors acting locally

NK cell activation is regulated by a balance between activating and inhibitory signals. To address the question of how these signals are spatially integrated, we created a computer simulation of activating and inhibitory NK cell immunological synapse (NKIS) assembly, implementing either a "quantity-based" inhibition model or a "distance-based" inhibition model. The simulations mimicked the observed molecule distributions in inhibitory and activating NKIS and yielded several new insights. First, the total signal is highly influenced by activating complex dissociation rates but not by adhesion and inhibitory complex dissociation rates. Second, concerted motion of receptors in clusters significantly accelerates NKIS maturation. Third, when the potential of a cis interaction between Ly49 receptors and MHC class I on murine NK cells was added to the model, the integrated signal as a function of receptor and ligand numbers was only slightly increased, at least up to the level of 50% cis-bound Ly49 receptors reached in the model. Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, the integrated signal behavior obtained when using the distance-based inhibition signal model was closer to the experimentally observed behavior, with an inhibition radius of the order 3-10 molecules. Microscopy to visualize Vav activation in NK cells on micropatterned surfaces of activating and inhibitory strips revealed that Vav is only locally activated where activating receptors are ligated within a single NK cell contact. Taken together, these data are consistent with a model in which inhibitory receptors act locally; that is, that every bound inhibitory receptor acts on activating receptors within a certain radius around it.     

Intensive fish predation: an obstacle to biological recovery following liming of acidified lakes?

Several thousand lakes have been limed inNorway and Sweden during the last threedecades. Most fishless lakes are stocked withsalmonid game fish after liming, predominantlybrown trout (Salmo trutta). Thecombination of intensive anthropogenic stockingand improved natural reproduction possibilitiesin brooks and rivers often leads to denselypopulated lakes and excess fish planktivory.Another major fish species in southern Norway,Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis),exhibits strong numerical increases afterliming, and within a short period of time thelakes harbor dense and often stuntedpopulations. The cladoceran zooplanktoncommunity was used as a diagnostic tool forstudying fish status, patterns and processes oflakes in the present area. Systems that werelimed before all fish species were lost, andbefore major dominance shifts had taken placewithin the invertebrates, recovered morequickly. Recovery periods are severelyprolonged in strongly disturbed, chronicallyacidified ecosystems. The control of fishabundance in optimal human resource managementof limed lakes is a delicate balance betweenthe necessity to suppress potentialinvertebrate predators and fish competitorssuch as corixids and chaoborids, and to avoidover-exploitation of the planktonic and benthiccommunities. If the combined watershed and lakesystem does not naturally produce sub-optimalspawning and recruitment possibilities, eitherfor brown trout or Eurasian perch, resulting insmaller populations, chances are high that thesite will lose its attraction as a fishingobject due to overpopulation. This should be amajor field of concern both for the ecology ofthese lakes and their resource management bythe fishery and environmental officials.     

The energetic consequences of behavioral variation in a marine carnivore

Intraspecific variability in foraging behavior has been documented across a range of taxonomic groups, yet the energetic consequences of this variation are not well understood for many species. Understanding the effect of behavioral variation on energy expenditure and acquisition is particularly crucial for mammalian carnivores because they have high energy requirements that place considerable pressure on prey populations. To determine the influence of behavior on energy expenditure and balance, we combined simultaneous measurements of at‐sea field metabolic rate (FMR) and foraging behavior in a marine carnivore that exhibits intraspecific behavioral variation, the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus). Sea lions exhibited variability in at‐sea FMR, with some individuals expending energy at a maximum of twice the rate of others. This variation was in part attributable to differences in diving behavior that may have been reflective of diet; however, this was only true for sea lions using a foraging strategy consisting of epipelagic (<200 m within the water column) and benthic dives. In contrast, sea lions that used a deep‐diving foraging strategy all had similar values of at‐sea FMR that were unrelated to diving behavior. Energy intake did not differ between foraging strategies and was unrelated to energy expenditure. Our findings suggest that energy expenditure in California sea lions may be influenced by interactions between diet and oxygen conservation strategies. There were no apparent energetic trade‐offs between foraging strategies, although there was preliminary evidence that foraging strategies may differ in their variability in energy balance. The energetic consequences of behavioral variation may influence the reproductive success of female sea lions and result in differential impacts of individuals on prey populations. These findings highlight the importance of quantifying the relationships between energy expenditure and foraging behavior in other carnivores for studies addressing fundamental and applied physiological and ecological questions.     

Cyclic voles, prey switching in red fox, and roe deer dynamics – a test of the alternative prey hypothesis

Medium-sized predators sometimes switch to alternative prey species as their main prey declines. Our objective of this study was to test the alternative prey hypothesis for a medium sized predator (red fox, Vulpes vulpes ), a small cyclically fluctuating main prey (microtine voles) and larger alternative prey (roe deer fawns, Capreolus capreolus ). We used long-term time series (28 years) on voles, red fox and roe deer from the Grimsö Wildlife Research Area (59°40'N, 15°25'E) in south-central Sweden to investigate interspecific relationships in the annual fluctuations in numbers of the studied species. Annual variation in number of roe deer fawns in autumn was significantly and positively related to vole density and significantly and negatively related to the number of fox litters in the previous year. In years of high vole density, predation on roe deer fawns was small, but in years of low vole density predation was more severe. The time lag between number of fox litters and predation on fawns was due to the time lag in functional response of red fox in relation to voles. This study demonstrates for the first time that the alternative prey hypothesis is applicable to the system red fox, voles and roe deer fawns.