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Pete Smith Peter J. Gregory Detlef van Vuuren Michael Obersteiner Petr Havl��k Mark Rounsevell Jeremy Woods Elke Stehfest Jessica Bellarby 《Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences》2010,365(1554):2941-2957
A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years.Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future.In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future. 相似文献
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Suzanne Manugian Meredith L. Elliott Russ Bradley Julie Howar Nina Karnovsky Benjamin Saenz Anna Studwell Pete Warzybok Nadav Nur Jaime Jahncke 《PloS one》2015,10(12)
Krill (Euphausiids) play a vital ecosystem role in many of the world’s most productive marine regions, providing an important trophic linkage. We introduce a robust modeling approach to link Cassin’s auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) abundance and distribution to large-scale and local oceanic and atmospheric conditions and relate these patterns to similarly modeled distributions of an important prey resource, krill. We carried out at-sea strip transect bird surveys and hydroacoustic assessments of euphausiids (2004–2013). Data informed separate, spatially-explicit predictive models of Cassin’s auklet abundance (zero-inflated negative binomial regression) and krill biomass (two-part model) based on these surveys. We established the type of prey responsible for acoustic backscatter by conducting net tows of the upper 50 m during surveys. We determined the types of prey fed to Cassin’s auklet chicks by collecting diet samples from provisioning adults. Using time-depth-recorders, we found Cassin’s auklets utilized consistent areas in the upper water column, less than 30 m, where krill could be found (99.5% of dives were less than 30 m). Birds primarily preyed upon two species of euphausiids, Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, which were available in the upper water column. Cassin’s auklet abundance was best predicted by both large scale and localized oceanic processes (upwelling) while krill biomass was best predicted by local factors (temperature, salinity, and fluorescence) and both large scale and localized oceanic processes (upwelling). Models predicted varying krill and bird distribution by month and year. Our work informs the use of Cassin’s auklet as a valuable indicator or krill abundance and distribution and strengthens our understanding of the link between Cassin’s auklet and its primary prey. We expect future increases in frequency and magnitude of anomalous ocean conditions will result in decreased availability of krill leading to declines in the Farallon Islands population of Cassin’s auklets. 相似文献
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Modelling the carbon cycle of Miscanthus plantations: existing models and the potential for their improvement
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Andy D. Robertson Christian A. Davies Pete Smith Marta Dondini Niall P. McNamara 《Global Change Biology Bioenergy》2015,7(3):405-421
The lignocellulosic perennial grass Miscanthus has received considerable attention as a potential bioenergy crop over the last 25 years, but few commercial plantations exist globally. This is partly due to the uncertainty associated with claims that land‐use change (LUC) to Miscanthus will result in both commercially viable yields and net increases in carbon (C) storage. To simulate what the effects may be after LUC to Miscanthus, six process‐based models have been parameterized for Miscanthus and here we review how these models operate. This review provides an overview of the key Miscanthus soil organic matter models and then highlights what measurers can do to accelerate model development. Each model (WIMOVAC, BioCro, Agro‐IBIS, DAYCENT, DNDC and ECOSSE) is capable of simulating biomass production and soil C dynamics based on specific site characteristics. Understanding the design of these models is important in model selection as well as being important for field researchers to collect the most relevant data to improve model performance. The rapid increase in models parameterized for Miscanthus is promising, but refinements and improvements are still required to ensure that model predictions are reliable and can be applied to spatial scales relevant for policy. Specific improvements, needed to ensure the models are applicable for a range of environmental conditions, come under two categories: (i) increased data generation and (ii) development of frameworks and databases to allow simulations of ranging scales. Research into nonfood bioenergy crops such as Miscanthus is relatively recent and this review highlights that there are still a number of knowledge gaps regarding Miscanthus specifically. For example, the low input requirements of Miscanthus make it particularly attractive as a bioenergy crop, but it is essential that we increase our understanding of the crop's nutrient remobilization and ability to host N‐fixing organisms to derive the most accurate simulations. 相似文献
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David M. Sanders Anthony L. Schuster P. Wesley McCardle Otto F. Strey Terry L. Blankenship Pete D. Teel 《Journal of vector ecology》2013,38(2):361-373
Ixodid ticks were collected from feral swine in eight Texas ecoregions from 2008–2011. Sixty‐two percent of 806 feral swine were infested with one or more of the following species: Amblyomma americanum, A. cajennense, A. maculatum, Dermacentor albipictus, D. halli, D. variabilis, and Ixodes scapularis. Juvenile and adult feral swine of both sexes were found to serve as host to ixodid ticks. Longitudinal surveys of feral swine at four geographic locations show persistent year‐round tick infestations of all gender‐age classes for tick species common to their respective geographic locations and ecoregions. Amblyomma americanum, A. cajennense, A. maculatum and D. variabilis were collected from 66% of feral swine harvested through an abatement program in seven ecoregions from March to October in 2009. These results indicate westward geographic expansion of D. variabilis. Summary results show feral swine are competent hosts for ixodid species responsible for the transmission of pathogens and diminished well‐being in livestock, wildlife, and humans. 相似文献
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Plant Molecular Biology Reporter - A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11105-020-01265-4 相似文献
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