Decoupling the direct and indirect effects of nitrogen deposition on ecosystem function

Elevated nitrogen (N) inputs into terrestrial ecosystems are causing major changes to the composition and functioning of ecosystems. Understanding these changes is challenging because there are complex interactions between 'direct' effects of N on plant physiology and soil biogeochemistry, and 'indirect' effects caused by changes in plant species composition. By planting high N and low N plant community compositions into high and low N deposition model terrestrial ecosystems we experimentally decoupled direct and indirect effects and quantified their contribution to changes in carbon, N and water cycling. Our results show that direct effects on plant growth dominate ecosystem response to N deposition, although long-term carbon storage is reduced under high N plant-species composition. These findings suggest that direct effects of N deposition on ecosystem function could be relatively strong in comparison with the indirect effects of plant community change.     

Accurate influenza forecasts using type-specific incidence data for small geographic units

Influenza incidence forecasting is used to facilitate better health system planning and could potentially be used to allow at-risk individuals to modify their behavior during a severe seasonal influenza epidemic or a novel respiratory pandemic. For example, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs an annual competition to forecast influenza-like illness (ILI) at the regional and national levels in the US, based on a standard discretized incidence scale. Here, we use a suite of forecasting models to analyze type-specific incidence at the smaller spatial scale of clusters of nearby counties. We used data from point-of-care (POC) diagnostic machines over three seasons, in 10 clusters, capturing: 57 counties; 1,061,891 total specimens; and 173,909 specimens positive for Influenza A. Total specimens were closely correlated with comparable CDC ILI data. Mechanistic models were substantially more accurate when forecasting influenza A positive POC data than total specimen POC data, especially at longer lead times. Also, models that fit subpopulations of the cluster (individual counties) separately were better able to forecast clusters than were models that directly fit to aggregated cluster data. Public health authorities may wish to consider developing forecasting pipelines for type-specific POC data in addition to ILI data. Simple mechanistic models will likely improve forecast accuracy when applied at small spatial scales to pathogen-specific data before being scaled to larger geographical units and broader syndromic data. Highly local forecasts may enable new public health messaging to encourage at-risk individuals to temporarily reduce their social mixing during seasonal peaks and guide public health intervention policy during potentially severe novel influenza pandemics.     

Characterising the biophysical,economic and social impacts of soil carbon sequestration as a greenhouse gas removal technology

To limit warming to well below 2°C, most scenario projections rely on greenhouse gas removal technologies (GGRTs); one such GGRT uses soil carbon sequestration (SCS) in agricultural land. In addition to their role in mitigating climate change, SCS practices play a role in delivering agroecosystem resilience, climate change adaptability and food security. Environmental heterogeneity and differences in agricultural practices challenge the practical implementation of SCS, and our analysis addresses the associated knowledge gap. Previous assessments have focused on global potentials, but there is a need among policymakers to operationalise SCS. Here, we assess a range of practices already proposed to deliver SCS, and distil these into a subset of specific measures. We provide a multidisciplinary summary of the barriers and potential incentives towards practical implementation of these measures. First, we identify specific practices with potential for both a positive impact on SCS at farm level and an uptake rate compatible with global impact. These focus on: (a) optimising crop primary productivity (e.g. nutrient optimisation, pH management, irrigation); (b) reducing soil disturbance and managing soil physical properties (e.g. improved rotations, minimum till); (c) minimising deliberate removal of C or lateral transport via erosion processes (e.g. support measures, bare fallow reduction); (d) addition of C produced outside the system (e.g. organic manure amendments, biochar addition); (e) provision of additional C inputs within the cropping system (e.g. agroforestry, cover cropping). We then consider economic and non‐cost barriers and incentives for land managers implementing these measures, along with the potential externalised impacts of implementation. This offers a framework and reference point for holistic assessment of the impacts of SCS. Finally, we summarise and discuss the ability of extant scientific approaches to quantify the technical potential and externalities of SCS measures, and the barriers and incentives to their implementation in global agricultural systems.     

Retinal Ganglion Cell Dendritic Atrophy in DBA/2J Glaucoma

Glaucoma is a complex disease affecting an estimated 70 million people worldwide, characterised by the progressive degeneration of retinal ganglion cells and accompanying visual field loss. The common site of damage to retinal ganglion cells is thought to be at the optic nerve head, however evidence from other optic neuropathies and neurodegenerative disorders suggests that dendritic structures undergo a prolonged period of atrophy that may accompany or even precede soma loss and neuronal cell death. Using the DBA/2J mouse model of glaucoma this investigation aims to elucidate the impact of increasing intraocular pressure on retinal ganglion cell dendrites using DBA/2J mice that express YFP throughout the retinal ganglion cells driven by Thy1 (DBA/2J.Thy1(YFP)) and DiOlistically labelled retinal ganglion cells in DBA/2J mice. Here we show retinal ganglion cell dendritic degeneration in DiOlistically labelled DBA/2J retinal ganglion cells but not in the DBA/2J.Thy1(YFP) retinal ganglion cells suggesting that a potential downregulation of Thy1 allows only ‘healthy’ retinal ganglion cells to express YFP. These data may highlight alternative pathways to retinal ganglion cell loss in DBA/2J glaucoma.     

How does bioenergy compare with other land‐based renewable energy sources globally?

The potential power generation from land‐based bioenergy is predicted globally using a computer model. Simultaneous consideration of land use, cost and carbon restrictions enables practical evaluation of net power output. Comparisons are made with wind and solar power, and a sensitivity analysis is used to explore the effects of different policy assumptions. Biomass is shown to offer only moderate power‐generating potential, and would satisfy less than half of current demand even if all suitable existing arable land were used to grow bioenergy crops. However, bioenergy can be cheap to generate given current economics, and is able to remove atmospheric carbon in some cases if coupled with carbon capture and storage. Wind turbines are able to provide more power globally, but photovoltaic solar panels are the only source considered with the potential to satisfy existing demand. Since land‐based bioenergy is also restricted by the need to grow food for an expanding population, and technological developments are likely to greatly increase the viability of other renewable sources, the role of land‐based bioenergy appears relatively limited and short‐term.     

Algal biomass anaerobic biodegradability

We conducted a series of biodegradation studies using microalgae (Arthrospira maxima and Nannochloropsis sp.) and macroalgae (Gelidium corneum and Cladophora glomerata) to elucidate algal biodegradability in wastewater sludge under anaerobic conditions. Algal biodegradability was evaluated according to ASTM D5210-92. The results indicate that A. maxima biodegraded to a greater extent (70 %) than Nannochloropsis sp. (40 %). The low level of mineralization for Nannochloropsis sp. is due to the presence of high level of lipids (37 %). For macroalgal samples, red algae fiber pulped from G. corneum biodegraded comparably to cellulose controls. However, C. glomerata biodegradation is about 46 %. A sample compositional analysis revealed that it contained about 24.5 % ash, which is directly accountable for an observed low degree of biodegradation. Algal anaerobic biodegradability is important to facilitate sludge digester design and performance evaluation. It is particularly useful when waste residual materials from algal biofuel processing are used for energy production.     

Understanding the placebo effect from an evolutionary perspective

A placebo is a treatment which is not effective through its direct action on the body, but works because of its effect on the patient's beliefs. From an evolutionary perspective, it is initially puzzling why, if people are capable of recovering, they need a placebo to do so. Based on an argument put forward by Humphrey [Great expectations: the evolutionary psychology of faith-healing and the placebo effect. In: Humphrey, N (2002). The mind made flesh. Oxford University Press, Oxford. 255–285], we present simple mathematical models of the placebo effect that involve a trade-off between the costs and benefits of allocating resources to a current problem. These models show why the effect occurs and how its magnitude and timing can depend on different factors. We identify a particular aspect of belief which may govern the effect and conclude that a deeper understanding of why the placebo effect exists may allow it to be invoked more easily in the future.