The ecological forecast horizon,and examples of its uses and determinants

Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development.     

Control charts for improved decisions in environmental management: a case study of catchment water supply in south‐west Western Australia

Environmental monitoring is becoming increasingly sophisticated with the widespread adoption of data loggers, sensor arrays and remote sensing, leading to larger scale, higher resolution and superior quality data. However, interpreting monitoring data and deciding when and how to apply environmental management remains a subjective and underdeveloped area of research. Control charts, developed in industrial settings to identify when manufacturing processes were beyond the acceptable bounds of production quality, represent one solution. Despite their potential utility, control charts have rarely been adopted in environmental monitoring. In theory, they are able to identify undesirable trends early and provide transparent and broadly consensual criteria for defining when management action should take place, that is action is triggered when parameter values are observed beyond the agreed control limits of the process. Once triggered, a predetermined management action is implemented. Possible actions are many and varied, and range from investigation and increased monitoring to intervention in the system. Here, the utility of control charts in monitoring water supply in south‐western Australia from 1911 to 2010 is examined, and their ability to provide an early, transparent and easily understandable means of triggering management action is assessed. Two control chart types are applied: the X‐bar chart and the CUSUM chart. X‐bar charts varied widely in their ability to trigger action and were insensitive to many traditional threshold criteria (of which there are many to choose from). In contrast, standard CUSUM charts are specifically designed to detect subtler shifts away from a mean trend and hence provided a more consistent warning of the decline in water supply. While managers were aware of the decline in water supply from an early stage, we believe that control charts could have clearly communicated this earlier, enabling consensus among decision makers to be reached more rapidly.     

Knockdown of lung phosphodiesterase 2A attenuates alveolar inflammation and protein leak in a two-hit mouse model of acute lung injury

Phosphodiesterase 2A (PDE2A) is stimulated by cGMP to hydrolyze cAMP, a potent endothelial barrier-protective molecule. We previously found that lung PDE2A contributed to a mouse model of ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI). The purpose of the present study was to determine the contribution of PDE2A in a two-hit mouse model of 1-day intratracheal (IT) LPS followed by 4 h of 20 ml/kg tidal volume ventilation. Compared with IT water controls, LPS alone (3.75 μg/g body wt) increased lung PDE2A mRNA and protein expression by 6 h with a persistent increase in protein through day 4 before decreasing to control levels on days 6 and 10. Similar to the PDE2A time course, the peak in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) neutrophils, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and protein concentration also occurred on day 4 post-LPS. IT LPS (1 day) and VILI caused a threefold increase in lung PDE2A and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) and a 24-fold increase in BAL neutrophilia. Compared with a control adenovirus, PDE2A knockdown with an adenovirus expressing a short hairpin RNA administered IT 3 days before LPS/VILI effectively decreased lung PDE2A expression and significantly attenuated BAL neutrophilia, LDH, protein, and chemokine levels. PDE2A knockdown also reduced lung iNOS expression by 53%, increased lung cAMP by nearly twofold, and improved survival from 47 to 100%. We conclude that in a mouse model of LPS/VILI, a synergistic increase in lung PDE2A expression increased lung iNOS and alveolar inflammation and contributed significantly to the ensuing acute lung injury.     

Disruption of historical patterns of isolation by distance in coastal steelhead

When natural populations exchange migrants at a rate proportional to their geographic distance, population genetics theory leads to the expectation of a pattern of isolation-by-distance (IBD), whereby geographic and genetic distance are correlated. However, the presence or absence of such patterns in modern populations may not fully reflect the historical relationships among those populations. Thus, historical samples, collected prior to modern human impacts, can often provide a critical baseline for comparison with modern populations. Steelhead, the anadromous form of rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, are native to western North America and are endangered or threatened throughout most of California, near the southern extent of their native range. Population samples of steelhead collected in 1897 and 1909 in Central California rivers provided the opportunity to evaluate the historical genetic composition and population structure of these threatened fish. Here we show that these steelhead populations had a historically strong correlation between genetic and geographic distance that has been virtually erased in modern populations, suggesting that current relationships among modern steelhead populations are no longer reflective of natural migratory pathways. This demonstrates the critical role of migration in maintaining population relationships of threatened species and highlights the importance of natural history museums in providing historical baseline information.     

Inhibition of NADPH Oxidase Activation in Oligodendrocytes Reduces Cytotoxicity Following Trauma

Spinal cord injury is a debilitating neurological disorder that initiates a cascade of cellular events that result in a period of secondary damage that can last for months after the initial trauma. The ensuing outcome of these prolonged cellular perturbations is the induction of neuronal and glial cell death through excitotoxic mechanisms and subsequent free radical production. We have previously shown that astrocytes can directly induce oligodendrocyte death following trauma, but the mechanisms regulating this process within the oligodendrocyte remain unclear. Here we provide evidence demonstrating that astrocytes directly regulate oligodendrocyte death after trauma by inducing activation of NADPH oxidase within oligodendrocytes. Spinal cord injury resulted in a significant increase in oxidative damage which correlated with elevated expression of the gp91 phox subunit of the NADPH oxidase enzyme. Immunohistochemical analysis confirmed the presence of gp91 phox in oligodendrocytes in vitro and at 1 week following spinal cord injury. Exposure of oligodendrocytes to media from injured astrocytes resulted in an increase in oligodendrocyte NADPH oxidase activity. Inhibition of NADPH oxidase activation was sufficient to attenuate oligodendrocyte death in vitro and at 1 week following spinal cord injury, suggesting that excitotoxicity of oligodendrocytes after trauma is dependent on the intrinsic activation of the NADPH oxidase enzyme. Acute administration of the NADPH oxidase inhibitor apocynin and the alpha-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methylisoxazole-4-propionate channel blocker 2,3-dihydroxy-6-nitro-7-sulfamoyl-benzo[f]quinoxaline-2,3-dione significantly improved locomotor behavior and preserved descending axon fibers following spinal cord injury. These studies lead to a better understanding of oligodendrocyte death after trauma and identify potential therapeutic targets in disorders involving demyelination and oligodendrocyte death.     

Chronic Helicobacter pylori infection does not significantly alter the microbiota of the murine stomach

We examined the impact of Helicobacter pylori infection on the murine gastric microbiota by culture and terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism and found that neither acute nor chronic H. pylori infection substantially affected the gastric microbial composition. Interestingly, the total H. pylori burden detected by real-time PCR was significantly higher than that revealed by viable counts, suggesting that the antigenic load sustaining H. pylori-induced gastritis could be considerably higher than previously believed.