Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope and conservation of the Maned Wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus)

Forecasting the influence of climatic changes on the distribution of the Maned Wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) is important for the conservation of the species. We explored the environmental characteristics than best explain the current distribution of the species, modelled the past and present distribution, projected the niche model into the future, and identified suitable areas for conservation. Niche modelling was performed using Maxent and 21 environmental variables. For past conditions, we considered the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene (MH) climates. For future conditions, we used the A2a greenhouse gas emission scenario for 2050. Four General Circulation Models (FGOALS 1.0, HADCM3, IPSL-CM4 and MIROC 3.2) were used. The resulting niche model (AUC = 0.89 ± 0.02) predicts maximum probability of presence at precipitation of 106 mm during the coldest quarter, of 396 mm during the warmest quarter, and in totally flat areas. The suitable area for the Maned Wolf currently covers 4,320,364 km². For the LGM, there were inter-model differences in predicted areas (from 819,324 km² to 6,395,886 km²) and in geographic location. The MH models showed drastic changes with respect to the present and considerable inter-model variation. Predictions for 2050 show significant (at least 33%) reductions in distribution. Only a minor fraction (39%) of the current distribution can be considered stable for the period LGM-2050. The FGOALS model was the best option for projecting species occurrence into the future because it included the three localities known for the Maned Wolf from the late Pleistocene and predicts stable areas that coincide with spatial patterns of genetic diversity. The FGOALS projection for 2050 predicts a 33% reduction in suitable habitats, indicating some stable areas (central South America) that will probably be key sites for the conservation of the species.     

Reproductive aspects of American minks (Neovison vison) in central Spain: Testing the effects of prey availability

Some reproductive components of fitness (breeding times, litter size and the proportion of breeding females per year) of two feral populations of American minks in central Spain were investigated by means of direct observation from 2006 to 2010. The effects of prey availability were explored. Mating season was from February to March. Parturition dates did not differ between the two sites and pooled births took place between April (33.3%) and July (2.8%), peaking in May (40.3%). Mean litter size (the number of small cubs following their mother) was 3.43 ± 1.01 cubs (±SD; n = 30) with statistical significant differences between the two study sites. The strong seasonality in births and differences in litter size were related to prey availability (i.e. these are food-limited life-history traits), but in a complex non-linear fashion. A minimum value of prey abundance is necessary to breed. While litter size rises with prey abundance, there is a point where increasing prey did not result in an increase in litter size. Up to 75% of the females in the breeding pool reared cubs each year in both areas, which represents a somewhat high pool of breeding females. Delayed implantation is shorter than a month or does not exist in these populations. Such a short time-span seems to emerge because longer delays would have an important fitness cost to females. The breeding calendar and the litter size were similar to that reported previously from other areas.     

Effects of human activity on the distribution and abundance of an endangered Mediterranean high-mountain plant (Erysimum penyalarense)

The Iberian mountains are important biodiversity hotspots that face great immediate threats like other species-rich regions on Earth. Preservation of natural communities has historically been based on protecting them from physical disturbance. One of the most important causes of disturbance in natural communities today is human activity. Erysimum penyalarense is an endemic and endangered Mediterranean high-mountain herb. In this study, we explore the effect of environmental factors (microhabitat characteristics) and human activity on its abundance and distribution within the only remaining population of the species. Our results indicate that the species is much more abundant than previously thought. The only population known benefited from human disturbance but was negatively affected by animal disturbance and shrub encroachment. Therefore, the net effect of human activity on the species depends on the balance between the different activities carried out within its distribution range, suggesting that intermediate levels of disturbance could help preserve some endangered plants.     

A Systematic Review of the Relationship between Blood Loss and Clinical Signs

Introduction

This systematic review examines the relationship between blood loss and clinical signs and explores its use to trigger clinical interventions in the management of obstetric haemorrhage.

Methods

A systematic review of the literature was carried out using a comprehensive search strategy to identify studies presenting data on the relationship of clinical signs & symptoms and blood loss. Methodological quality was assessed using the STROBE checklist and the general guidelines of MOOSE.

Results

30 studies were included and five were performed in women with pregnancy-related haemorrhage (other studies were carried in non-obstetric populations). Heart rate (HR), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and shock index were the parameters most frequently studied. An association between blood loss and HR changes was observed in 22 out of 24 studies, and between blood loss and SBP was observed in 17 out of 23 studies. An association was found in all papers reporting on the relationship of shock index and blood loss. Seven studies have used Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves to determine the accuracy of clinical signs in predicting blood loss. In those studies the AUC ranged from 0.56 to 0.74 for HR, from 0.56 to 0.79 for SBP and from 0.77 to 0.84 for shock index. In some studies, HR, SBP and shock index were associated with increased mortality.

Conclusion

We found a substantial variability in the relationship between blood loss and clinical signs, making it difficult to establish specific cut-off points for clinical signs that could be used as triggers for clinical interventions. However, the shock index can be an accurate indicator of compensatory changes in the cardiovascular system due to blood loss. Considering that most of the evidence included in this systematic review is derived from studies in non-obstetric populations, further research on the use of the shock index in obstetric populations is needed.     

Lipid profile: causal relationship on cognitive performance in multiple sclerosis?

Molecular Biology Reports - Although cognitive impairment (CI) is classically associated with aging, it has been proposed that neurological pathologies may increase the risk to suffer CI. Despite...     

Mathematical modeling of collagen turnover in biological tissue

We present a theoretical and computational model for collagen turnover in soft biological tissues. Driven by alterations in the mechanical environment, collagen fiber bundles may undergo important chronic changes, characterized primarily by alterations in collagen synthesis and degradation rates. In particular, hypertension triggers an increase in tropocollagen synthesis and a decrease in collagen degradation, which lead to the well-documented overall increase in collagen content. These changes are the result of a cascade of events, initiated mainly by the endothelial and smooth muscle cells. Here, we represent these events collectively in terms of two internal variables, the concentration of growth factor TGF- $\beta $ and tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases TIMP. The upregulation of TGF- $\beta $ increases the collagen density. The upregulation of TIMP also increases the collagen density through decreasing matrix metalloproteinase MMP. We establish a mathematical theory for mechanically-induced collagen turnover and introduce a computational algorithm for its robust and efficient solution. We demonstrate that our model can accurately predict the experimentally observed collagen increase in response to hypertension reported in literature. Ultimately, the model can serve as a valuable tool to predict the chronic adaptation of collagen content to restore the homeostatic equilibrium state in vessels with arbitrary micro-structure and geometry.