Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of northeastern North America

Terrestrial biosphere models are important tools for diagnosing both the current state of the terrestrial carbon cycle and forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. While there are a number of ongoing assessments of the short-term predictive capabilities of terrestrial biosphere models using flux-tower measurements, to date there have been relatively few assessments of their ability to predict longer term, decadal-scale biomass dynamics. Here, we present the results of a regional-scale evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography version 2 (ED2)-structured terrestrial biosphere model, evaluating the model's predictions against forest inventory measurements for the northeast USA and Quebec from 1985 to 1995. Simulations were conducted using a default parametrization, which used parameter values from the literature, and a constrained model parametrization, which had been developed by constraining the model's predictions against 2 years of measurements from a single site, Harvard Forest (42.5° N, 72.1° W). The analysis shows that the constrained model parametrization offered marked improvements over the default model formulation, capturing large-scale variation in patterns of biomass dynamics despite marked differences in climate forcing, land-use history and species-composition across the region. These results imply that data-constrained parametrizations of structured biosphere models such as ED2 can be successfully used for regional-scale ecosystem prediction and forecasting. We also assess the model's ability to capture sub-grid scale heterogeneity in the dynamics of biomass growth and mortality of different sizes and types of trees, and then discuss the implications of these analyses for further reducing the remaining biases in the model's predictions.     

In situ oligonucleotide synthesis on poly(dimethylsiloxane): a flexible substrate for microarray fabrication

In this paper, we demonstrate in situ synthesis of oligonucleotide probes on poly(dimethylsiloxane) (PDMS) microchannels through use of conventional phosphoramidite chemistry. PDMS polymer was moulded into a series of microchannels using standard soft lithography (micro-moulding), with dimensions <100 μm. The surface of the PDMS was derivatized by exposure to ultraviolet/ozone followed by vapour phase deposition of glycidoxypropyltrimethoxysilane and reaction with poly(ethylene glycol) spacer, resulting in a reactive surface for oligonucleotide coupling. High, reproducible yields were achieved for both 6mer and 21mer probes as assessed by hybridization to fluorescent oligonucleotides. Oligonucleotide surface density was comparable with that obtained on glass substrates. These results suggest PDMS as a stable and flexible alternative to glass as a suitable substrate in the fabrication and synthesis of DNA microarrays.     

Programmatic evaluation of a combined antigen and antibody test for rapid HIV diagnosis in a community and sexual health clinic screening programme

Background

A substantial proportion of HIV-infected individuals in the UK are unaware of their status and late presentations continue, especially in low prevalence areas. Fourth generation antigen/antibody rapid test kits could facilitate earlier diagnosis of HIV in non-clinical settings but lack data on performance under programmatic conditions.

Methods and Findings

We evaluated the performance of Determine HIV-1/2 Ag/Ab Combo Test (Determine Combo), a rapid test with indicators for both HIV antibodies and p24 antigen, in participants recruited from community outreach and hospital-based sexual health clinics. HIV infection was confirmed using laboratory enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EIA), Line Immuno Assay (LIA) and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). In total, 953 people underwent HIV testing. HIV antibody (Ab) prevalence was 1.8% (17/953). Four false positive rapid tests were identified: two antibody and two p24 antigen (Ag) reactions. Of participants diagnosed as HIV Ab positive, 2/17 (12%) were recent seroconverters based on clinical history and HIV antibody avidity test results. However, none of these were detected by the p24 antigen component of the rapid test kit. There were no other true positive p24 Ag tests.

Conclusion

These data lend support to an increasing body of evidence suggesting that 4th generation rapid HIV tests have little additional benefit over 3rd generation HIV kits for routine screening in low prevalence settings and have high rates of false positives. In order to optimally combine community-based case-finding among hard-to-reach groups with reliable and early diagnosis 3rd generation kits should be primarily used with laboratory testing of individuals thought to be at risk of acute HIV infection. A more reliable point of care diagnostic is required for the accurate detection of acute HIV infection under programmatic conditions.     

Stochastic modelling of animal movement

Modern animal movement modelling derives from two traditions. Lagrangian models, based on random walk behaviour, are useful for multi-step trajectories of single animals. Continuous Eulerian models describe expected behaviour, averaged over stochastic realizations, and are usefully applied to ensembles of individuals. We illustrate three modern research arenas. (i) Models of home-range formation describe the process of an animal ‘settling down’, accomplished by including one or more focal points that attract the animal''s movements. (ii) Memory-based models are used to predict how accumulated experience translates into biased movement choices, employing reinforced random walk behaviour, with previous visitation increasing or decreasing the probability of repetition. (iii) Lévy movement involves a step-length distribution that is over-dispersed, relative to standard probability distributions, and adaptive in exploring new environments or searching for rare targets. Each of these modelling arenas implies more detail in the movement pattern than general models of movement can accommodate, but realistic empiric evaluation of their predictions requires dense locational data, both in time and space, only available with modern GPS telemetry.     

Biochemical differentiation in bile duct cestodes and their marsupial hosts

Isozyme electrophoresis was used to assess possible cospeciation ofparasites (cestodes of the Progamotaenia festiva complex) and their hosts(Australian diprotodont marsupials) and to compare the extent ofinterspecific genetic diversity of the parasites and their hosts. On thebasis of morphology, there are three species in the complex, althoughelectrophoresis revealed 14 distinct genetic types, most of which were hostspecific, although there were three cases of apparent host switching. Theevolutionary relationships among the parasites were only partiallyconcordant with those among the hosts. Moreover, the extent ofelectrophoretic diversity among the parasites was much higher than thatamong hosts.     

RhoA signaling modulates cyclin D1 expression in human lung fibroblasts; implications for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Background

To elucidate further the pathogenesis of sporadic, idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH) and identify potential therapeutic avenues, differential gene expression in IPAH was examined by suppression subtractive hybridisation (SSH).

Methods

Peripheral lung samples were obtained immediately after removal from patients undergoing lung transplant for IPAH without familial disease, and control tissues consisted of similarly sampled pieces of donor lungs not utilised during transplantation. Pools of lung mRNA from IPAH cases containing plexiform lesions and normal donor lungs were used to generate the tester and driver cDNA libraries, respectively. A subtracted IPAH cDNA library was made by SSH. Clones isolated from this subtracted library were examined for up regulated expression in IPAH using dot blot arrays of positive colony PCR products using both pooled cDNA libraries as probes. Clones verified as being upregulated were sequenced. For two genes the increase in expression was verified by northern blotting and data analysed using Student's unpaired two-tailed t-test.

Results

We present preliminary findings concerning candidate genes upregulated in IPAH. Twenty-seven upregulated genes were identified out of 192 clones examined. Upregulation in individual cases of IPAH was shown by northern blot for tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-3 and decorin (P < 0.01) compared with the housekeeping gene glyceraldehydes-3-phosphate dehydrogenase.

Conclusion

Four of the up regulated genes, magic roundabout, hevin, thrombomodulin and sucrose non-fermenting protein-related kinase-1 are expressed specifically by endothelial cells and one, muscleblind-1, by muscle cells, suggesting that they may be associated with plexiform lesions and hypertrophic arterial wall remodelling, respectively.     

Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data‐model intercomparison

To predict forest response to long‐term climate change with high confidence requires that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) be successfully tested against ecosystem response to short‐term variations in environmental drivers, including regular seasonal patterns. Here, we used an integrated dataset from four forests in the Brasil flux network, spanning a range of dry‐season intensities and lengths, to determine how well four state‐of‐the‐art models (IBIS, ED2, JULES, and CLM3.5) simulated the seasonality of carbon exchanges in Amazonian tropical forests. We found that most DGVMs poorly represented the annual cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP), of photosynthetic capacity (Pc), and of other fluxes and pools. Models simulated consistent dry‐season declines in GPP in the equatorial Amazon (Manaus K34, Santarem K67, and Caxiuanã CAX); a contrast to observed GPP increases. Model simulated dry‐season GPP reductions were driven by an external environmental factor, ‘soil water stress’ and consequently by a constant or decreasing photosynthetic infrastructure (Pc), while observed dry‐season GPP resulted from a combination of internal biological (leaf‐flush and abscission and increased Pc) and environmental (incoming radiation) causes. Moreover, we found models generally overestimated observed seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration (R_e) at equatorial locations. In contrast, a southern Amazon forest (Jarú RJA) exhibited dry‐season declines in GPP and R_e consistent with most DGVMs simulations. While water limitation was represented in models and the primary driver of seasonal photosynthesis in southern Amazonia, changes in internal biophysical processes, light‐harvesting adaptations (e.g., variations in leaf area index (LAI) and increasing leaf‐level assimilation rate related to leaf demography), and allocation lags between leaf and wood, dominated equatorial Amazon carbon flux dynamics and were deficient or absent from current model formulations. Correctly simulating flux seasonality at tropical forests requires a greater understanding and the incorporation of internal biophysical mechanisms in future model developments.