Risk in Vaccine Research and Development Quantified

To date, vaccination is the most cost-effective strategy to combat infectious diseases. Recently, a productivity gap affects the pharmaceutical industry. The productivity gap describes the situation whereby the invested resources within an industry do not match the expected product turn-over. While risk profiles (combining research and development timelines and transition rates) have been published for new chemical entities (NCE), little is documented on vaccine development. The objective is to calculate risk profiles for vaccines targeting human infectious diseases. A database was actively compiled to include all vaccine projects in development from 1998 to 2009 in the pre-clinical development phase, clinical trials phase I, II and III up to Market Registration. The average vaccine, taken from the preclinical phase, requires a development timeline of 10.71 years and has a market entry probability of 6%. Stratification by disease area reveals pandemic influenza vaccine targets as lucrative. Furthermore, vaccines targeting acute infectious diseases and prophylactic vaccines have shown to have a lower risk profile when compared to vaccines targeting chronic infections and therapeutic applications. In conclusion; these statistics apply to vaccines targeting human infectious diseases. Vaccines targeting cancer, allergy and autoimmune diseases require further analysis. Additionally, this paper does not address orphan vaccines targeting unmet medical needs, whether projects are in-licensed or self-originated and firm size and experience. Therefore, it remains to be investigated how these - and other - variables influence the vaccine risk profile. Although we find huge differences between the risk profiles for vaccine and NCE; vaccines outperform NCE when it comes to development timelines.     

Metagenomic Analysis of the Ferret Fecal Viral Flora

Ferrets are widely used as a small animal model for a number of viral infections, including influenza A virus and SARS coronavirus. To further analyze the microbiological status of ferrets, their fecal viral flora was studied using a metagenomics approach. Novel viruses from the families Picorna-, Papilloma-, and Anelloviridae as well as known viruses from the families Astro-, Corona-, Parvo-, and Hepeviridae were identified in different ferret cohorts. Ferret kobu- and hepatitis E virus were mainly present in human household ferrets, whereas coronaviruses were found both in household as well as farm ferrets. Our studies illuminate the viral diversity found in ferrets and provide tools to prescreen for newly identified viruses that potentially could influence disease outcome of experimental virus infections in ferrets.     

Novel Avian-Origin Influenza A (H7N9) Virus Attachment to the Respiratory Tract of Five Animal Models

We determined the pattern of attachment of the avian-origin H7N9 influenza viruses A/Anhui/1/2013 and A/Shanghai/1/2013 to the respiratory tract in ferrets, macaques, mice, pigs, and guinea pigs and compared it to that in humans. The H7N9 attachment pattern in macaques, mice, and to a lesser extent pigs and guinea pigs resembled that in humans more closely than the attachment pattern in ferrets. This information contributes to our knowledge of the different animal models for influenza.     

Human Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes Directed to Seasonal Influenza A Viruses Cross-React with the Newly Emerging H7N9 Virus

In February 2013, zoonotic transmission of a novel influenza A virus of the H7N9 subtype was reported in China. Although at present no sustained human-to-human transmission has been reported, a pandemic outbreak of this H7N9 virus is feared. Since neutralizing antibodies to the hemagglutinin (HA) globular head domain of the virus are virtually absent in the human population, there is interest in identifying other correlates of protection, such as cross-reactive CD8⁺ T cells (cytotoxic T lymphocytes [CTLs]) elicited during seasonal influenza A virus infections. These virus-specific CD8⁺ T cells are known to recognize conserved internal proteins of influenza A viruses predominantly, but it is unknown to what extent they cross-react with the newly emerging H7N9 virus. Here, we assessed the cross-reactivity of seasonal H3N2 and H1N1 and pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus-specific polyclonal CD8⁺ T cells, obtained from HLA-typed study subjects, with the novel H7N9 virus. The cross-reactivity of CD8⁺ T cells to H7N9 variants of known influenza A virus epitopes and H7N9 virus-infected cells was determined by their gamma interferon (IFN-γ) response and lytic activity. It was concluded that, apart from recognition of individual H7N9 variant epitopes, CD8⁺ T cells to seasonal influenza viruses display considerable cross-reactivity with the novel H7N9 virus. The presence of these cross-reactive CD8⁺ T cells may afford some protection against infection with the new virus.     

Metagenomic Survey for Viruses in Western Arctic Caribou,Alaska, through Iterative Assembly of Taxonomic Units

Pathogen surveillance in animals does not provide a sufficient level of vigilance because it is generally confined to surveillance of pathogens with known economic impact in domestic animals and practically nonexistent in wildlife species. As most (re-)emerging viral infections originate from animal sources, it is important to obtain insight into viral pathogens present in the wildlife reservoir from a public health perspective. When monitoring living, free-ranging wildlife for viruses, sample collection can be challenging and availability of nucleic acids isolated from samples is often limited. The development of viral metagenomics platforms allows a more comprehensive inventory of viruses present in wildlife. We report a metagenomic viral survey of the Western Arctic herd of barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) in Alaska, USA. The presence of mammalian viruses in eye and nose swabs of 39 free-ranging caribou was investigated by random amplification combined with a metagenomic analysis approach that applied exhaustive iterative assembly of sequencing results to define taxonomic units of each metagenome. Through homology search methods we identified the presence of several mammalian viruses, including different papillomaviruses, a novel parvovirus, polyomavirus, and a virus that potentially represents a member of a novel genus in the family Coronaviridae.     

Recombinant Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara Expressing Glycoprotein E2 of Chikungunya Virus Protects AG129 Mice against Lethal Challenge

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection is characterized by rash, acute high fever, chills, headache, nausea, photophobia, vomiting, and severe polyarthralgia. There is evidence that arthralgia can persist for years and result in long-term discomfort. Neurologic disease with fatal outcome has been documented, although at low incidences. The CHIKV RNA genome encodes five structural proteins (C, E1, E2, E3 and 6K). The E1 spike protein drives the fusion process within the cytoplasm, while the E2 protein is believed to interact with cellular receptors and therefore most probably constitutes the target of neutralizing antibodies. We have constructed recombinant Modified Vaccinia Ankara (MVA) expressing E3E2, 6KE1, or the entire CHIKV envelope polyprotein cassette E3E26KE1. MVA is an appropriate platform because of its demonstrated clinical safety and its suitability for expression of various heterologous proteins. After completing the immunization scheme, animals were challenged with CHIV-S27. Immunization of AG129 mice with MVAs expressing E2 or E3E26KE1 elicited neutralizing antibodies in all animals and provided 100% protection against lethal disease. In contrast, 75% of the animals immunized with 6KE1 were protected against lethal infection. In conclusion, MVA expressing the glycoprotein E2 of CHIKV represents as an immunogenic and effective candidate vaccine against CHIKV infections.     

H1N1 2009 Pandemic Influenza Virus: Resistance of the I223R Neuraminidase Mutant Explained by Kinetic and Structural Analysis

Two classes of antiviral drugs, neuraminidase inhibitors and adamantanes, are approved for prophylaxis and therapy against influenza virus infections. A major concern is that antiviral resistant viruses emerge and spread in the human population. The 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus is already resistant to adamantanes. Recently, a novel neuraminidase inhibitor resistance mutation I223R was identified in the neuraminidase of this subtype. To understand the resistance mechanism of this mutation, the enzymatic properties of the I223R mutant, together with the most frequently observed resistance mutation, H275Y, and the double mutant I223R/H275Y were compared. Relative to wild type, K_M values for MUNANA increased only 2-fold for the single I223R mutant and up to 8-fold for the double mutant. Oseltamivir inhibition constants (K_I) increased 48-fold in the single I223R mutant and 7500-fold in the double mutant. In both cases the change was largely accounted for by an increased dissociation rate constant for oseltamivir, but the inhibition constants for zanamivir were less increased. We have used X-ray crystallography to better understand the effect of mutation I223R on drug binding. We find that there is shrinkage of a hydrophobic pocket in the active site as a result of the I223R change. Furthermore, R223 interacts with S247 which changes the rotamer it adopts and, consequently, binding of the pentoxyl substituent of oseltamivir is not as favorable as in the wild type. However, the polar glycerol substituent present in zanamivir, which mimics the natural substrate, is accommodated in the I223R mutant structure in a similar way to wild type, thus explaining the kinetic data. Our structural data also show that, in contrast to a recently reported structure, the active site of 2009 pandemic neuraminidase can adopt an open conformation.