Convolutional neural networks improve species distribution modelling by capturing the spatial structure of the environment

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are statistical models suited for learning complex visual patterns. In the context of Species Distribution Models (SDM) and in line with predictions of landscape ecology and island biogeography, CNN could grasp how local landscape structure affects prediction of species occurrence in SDMs. The prediction can thus reflect the signatures of entangled ecological processes. Although previous machine-learning based SDMs can learn complex influences of environmental predictors, they cannot acknowledge the influence of environmental structure in local landscapes (hence denoted “punctual models”). In this study, we applied CNNs to a large dataset of plant occurrences in France (GBIF), on a large taxonomical scale, to predict ranked relative probability of species (by joint learning) to any geographical position. We examined the way local environmental landscapes improve prediction by performing alternative CNN models deprived of information on landscape heterogeneity and structure (“ablation experiments”). We found that the landscape structure around location crucially contributed to improve predictive performance of CNN-SDMs. CNN models can classify the predicted distributions of many species, as other joint modelling approaches, but they further prove efficient in identifying the influence of local environmental landscapes. CNN can then represent signatures of spatially structured environmental drivers. The prediction gain is noticeable for rare species, which open promising perspectives for biodiversity monitoring and conservation strategies. Therefore, the approach is of both theoretical and practical interest. We discuss the way to test hypotheses on the patterns learnt by CNN, which should be essential for further interpretation of the ecological processes at play.     

Nitrogen,water, and phosphorus uptake as functions of fine-root mass in greenhouse microcosms of Poa pratensis

Plant Ecology - Understanding resource uptake as a function of fine-root mass is important for both basic ecological theory and applied biogeochemical cycling models. We measured plant population...     

CD4+Foxp3+ regulatory T cells prolong drug-induced disease remission in (NZBxNZW) F1 lupus mice

Introduction

The ability to ameliorate murine lupus renders regulatory T cells (Treg) a promising tool for the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). In consideration to the clinical translation of a Treg-based immunotherapy of SLE, we explored the potential of CD4+Foxp3+ Treg to maintain disease remission after induction of remission with an established cyclophosphamide (CTX) regimen in lupus-prone (NZBxNZW) F1 mice. As a prerequisite for this combined therapy, we also investigated the impact of CTX on the biology of endogenous Treg and conventional CD4+ T cells (Tcon).

Methods

Remission of disease was induced in diseased (NZBxNZW) F1 mice with an established CTX regimen consisting of a single dose of glucocorticosteroids followed by five day course with daily injections of CTX. Five days after the last CTX injection, differing amounts of purified CD4+Foxp3+CD25+ Treg were adoptively transferred and clinical parameters, autoantibody titers, the survival and changes in peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets were determined at different time points during the study. The influence of CTX on the numbers, frequencies and proliferation of endogenous Treg and Tcon was analyzed in lymphoid organs by flow cytometry.

Results

Apart from abrogating the proliferation of Tcon, we found that treatment with CTX induced also a significant inhibition of Treg proliferation and a decline in Treg numbers in lymphoid organs. Additional adoptive transfer of 1.5 × 10⁶ purified Treg after the CTX regimen significantly increased the survival and prolonged the interval of remission by approximately five weeks compared to mice that received only the CTX regimen. The additional clinical amelioration was associated with an increase in the Treg frequency in the peripheral blood indicating a compensation of CTX-induced Treg deficiency by the Treg transfer.

Conclusions

Treg were capable to prolong the interval of remission induced by conventional cytostatic drugs. This study provides valuable information and a first proof-of-concept for the feasibility of a Treg-based immunotherapy in the maintenance of disease remission in SLE.     

Regulating stem-cell research and human cloning in an Australian context: an exercise in protecting the status of the human subject

Abstract

Over 12 months prior to the recent United Nations decision to defer a decision about what type of international treaty should be developed in the global stem-cell research and human cloning debate, the Federal Parliament of Australia passed two separate pieces of legislation relating to both these concerns. After a five-year long process of community consultation, media spectacle and parliamentary debate, reproductive cloning has been banned in Australia and only embryos considered to be excess to assisted reproductive technologies in existence on the 5th of April 2002 are currently valid research material. This paper argues that underpinning both pieces of legislation is a profound belief in the disruptive potential of all types of human cloning for the very nature and integrity of human species being. A belief, moreover, that is based on a presumption that it is apparently possible to conceptualise what being human even means for all Australians.     

Do Spatially-Implicit Estimates of Neutral Migration Comply with Seed Dispersal Data in Tropical Forests?

Neutral community models have shown that limited migration can have a pervasive influence on the taxonomic composition of local communities even when all individuals are assumed of equivalent ecological fitness. Notably, the spatially implicit neutral theory yields a single parameter I for the immigration-drift equilibrium in a local community. In the case of plants, seed dispersal is considered as a defining moment of the immigration process and has attracted empirical and theoretical work. In this paper, we consider a version of the immigration parameter I depending on dispersal limitation from the neighbourhood of a community. Seed dispersal distance is alternatively modelled using a distribution that decreases quickly in the tails (thin-tailed Gaussian kernel) and another that enhances the chance of dispersal events over very long distances (heavily fat-tailed Cauchy kernel). Our analysis highlights two contrasting situations, where I is either mainly sensitive to community size (related to ecological drift) under the heavily fat-tailed kernel or mainly sensitive to dispersal distance under the thin-tailed kernel. We review dispersal distances of rainforest trees from field studies and assess the consistency between published estimates of I based on spatially-implicit models and the predictions of the kernel-based model in tropical forest plots. Most estimates of I were derived from large plots (10–50 ha) and were too large to be accounted for by a Cauchy kernel. Conversely, a fraction of the estimates based on multiple smaller plots (1 ha) appeared too small to be consistent with reported ranges of dispersal distances in tropical forests. Very large estimates may reflect within-plot habitat heterogeneity or estimation problems, while the smallest estimates likely imply other factors inhibiting migration beyond dispersal limitation. Our study underscores the need for interpreting I as an integrative index of migration limitation which, besides the limited seed dispersal, possibly includes habitat filtering or fragmentation.     

Phenotypic Plasticity of Southern Ocean Diatoms: Key to Success in the Sea Ice Habitat?

Diatoms are the primary source of nutrition and energy for the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Microalgae, including diatoms, synthesise biological macromolecules such as lipids, proteins and carbohydrates for growth, reproduction and acclimation to prevailing environmental conditions. Here we show that three key species of Southern Ocean diatom (Fragilariopsis cylindrus, Chaetoceros simplex and Pseudo-nitzschia subcurvata) exhibited phenotypic plasticity in response to salinity and temperature regimes experienced during the seasonal formation and decay of sea ice. The degree of phenotypic plasticity, in terms of changes in macromolecular composition, was highly species-specific and consistent with each species’ known distribution and abundance throughout sea ice, meltwater and pelagic habitats, suggesting that phenotypic plasticity may have been selected for by the extreme variability of the polar marine environment. We argue that changes in diatom macromolecular composition and shifts in species dominance in response to a changing climate have the potential to alter nutrient and energy fluxes throughout the Southern Ocean ecosystem.     

Trauma-Related Mortality among Adults in Rural Western Kenya: Characterising Deaths Using Data from a Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Background

Information on trauma-related deaths in low and middle income countries is limited but needed to target public health interventions. Data from a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) were examined to characterise such deaths in rural western Kenya.

Methods And Findings

Verbal autopsy data were analysed. Of 11,147 adult deaths between 2003 and 2008, 447 (4%) were attributed to trauma; 71% of these were in males. Trauma contributed 17% of all deaths in males 15 to 24 years; on a population basis mortality rates were greatest in persons over 65 years. Intentional causes accounted for a higher proportion of male than female deaths (RR 2.04, 1.37-3.04) and a higher proportion of deaths of those aged 15 to 65 than older people. Main causes in males were assaults (n=79, 25%) and road traffic injuries (n=47, 15%); and falls for females (n=17, 13%). A significantly greater proportion of deaths from poisoning (RR 5.0, 2.7-9.4) and assault (RR 1.8, 1.2-2.6) occurred among regular consumers of alcohol than among non-regular drinkers. In multivariate analysis, males had a 4-fold higher risk of death from trauma than females (Adjusted Relative Risk; ARR 4.0; 95% CI 1.7-9.4); risk of a trauma death rose with age, with the elderly at 7-fold higher risk (ARR 7.3, 1.1-49.2). Absence of care was the strongest predictor of trauma death (ARR 12.2, 9.4-15.8). Trauma-related deaths were higher among regular alcohol drinkers (ARR 1.5, 1.1-1.9) compared with non-regular drinkers.

Conclusions

While trauma accounts for a small proportion of deaths in this rural area with a high prevalence of HIV, TB and malaria, preventive interventions such as improved road safety, home safety strategies for the elderly, and curbing harmful use of alcohol, are available and could help diminish this burden. Improvements in systems to record underlying causes of death from trauma are required.     

A Randomized Trial of Two Coverage Targets for Mass Treatment with Azithromycin for Trachoma

Background

The World Health Organization recommends at least 3 annual antibiotic mass drug administrations (MDA) where the prevalence of trachoma is >10% in children ages 1–9 years, with coverage at least at 80%. However, the additional value of higher coverage targeted at children with multiple rounds is unknown.

Trial Design

2×2 factorial community randomized, double blind, trial.

Trial methods

32 communities with prevalence of trachoma ≥20% were randomized to: annual MDA aiming for coverage of children between 80%–90% (usual target) versus aiming for coverage>90% (enhanced target); and to: MDA for three years versus a rule of cessation of MDA early if the estimated prevalence of ocular C. trachomatis infection was less than 5%. The primary outcome was the community prevalence of infection with C. trachomatis at 36 months.

Results

Over the trial''s course, no community met the MDA cessation rule, so all communities had the full 3 rounds of MDA. At 36 months, there was no significant difference in the prevalence of infection, 4.0 versus 5.4 (mean adjusted difference = 1.4%, 95% CI = −1.0% to 3.8%), nor in the prevalence of trachoma, 6.1 versus 9.0 (mean adjusted difference = 2.6%, 95% CI = −0.3% to 5.3%) comparing the usual target to the enhanced target group. There was no difference if analyzed using coverage as a continuous variable.

Conclusion

In communities that had pre-treatment prevalence of follicular trachoma of 20% or greater, there is no evidence that MDA can be stopped before 3 annual rounds, even with high coverage. Increasing coverage in children above 90% does not appear to confer additional benefit.     

Life Expectancies of South African Adults Starting Antiretroviral Treatment: Collaborative Analysis of Cohort Studies

Background

Few estimates exist of the life expectancy of HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate the life expectancy of patients starting ART in South Africa and compare it with that of HIV-negative adults.

Methods and Findings

Data were collected from six South African ART cohorts. Analysis was restricted to 37,740 HIV-positive adults starting ART for the first time. Estimates of mortality were obtained by linking patient records to the national population register. Relative survival models were used to estimate the excess mortality attributable to HIV by age, for different baseline CD4 categories and different durations. Non-HIV mortality was estimated using a South African demographic model. The average life expectancy of men starting ART varied between 27.6 y (95% CI: 25.2–30.2) at age 20 y and 10.1 y (95% CI: 9.3–10.8) at age 60 y, while estimates for women at the same ages were substantially higher, at 36.8 y (95% CI: 34.0–39.7) and 14.4 y (95% CI: 13.3–15.3), respectively. The life expectancy of a 20-y-old woman was 43.1 y (95% CI: 40.1–46.0) if her baseline CD4 count was ≥200 cells/µl, compared to 29.5 y (95% CI: 26.2–33.0) if her baseline CD4 count was <50 cells/µl. Life expectancies of patients with baseline CD4 counts ≥200 cells/µl were between 70% and 86% of those in HIV-negative adults of the same age and sex, and life expectancies were increased by 15%–20% in patients who had survived 2 y after starting ART. However, the analysis was limited by a lack of mortality data at longer durations.

Conclusions

South African HIV-positive adults can have a near-normal life expectancy, provided that they start ART before their CD4 count drops below 200 cells/µl. These findings demonstrate that the near-normal life expectancies of HIV-positive individuals receiving ART in high-income countries can apply to low- and middle-income countries as well. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary