A novel approach to determining violence risk in schizophrenia: developing a stepped strategy in 13,806 discharged patients

Clinical guidelines recommend that violence risk be assessed in schizophrenia. Current approaches are resource-intensive as they employ detailed clinical assessments of dangerousness for most patients. An alternative approach would be to first screen out patients at very low risk of future violence prior to more costly and time-consuming assessments. In order to implement such a stepped strategy, we developed a simple tool to screen out individuals with schizophrenia at very low risk of violent offending. We merged high quality Swedish national registers containing information on psychiatric diagnoses, socio-demographic factors, and violent crime. A cohort of 13,806 individuals with hospital discharge diagnoses of schizophrenia was identified and followed for up to 33 years for violent crime. Cox regression was used to determine risk factors for violent crime and construct the screening tool, the predictive validity of which was measured using four outcome statistics. The instrument was calibrated on 6,903 participants and cross-validated using three independent replication samples of 2,301 participants each. Regression analyses resulted in a tool composed of five items: male sex, previous criminal conviction, young age at assessment, comorbid alcohol abuse, and comorbid drug abuse. At 5 years after discharge, the instrument had a negative predictive value of 0.99 (95% CI = 0.98–0.99), meaning that very few individuals who the tool screened out (n = 2,359 out of original sample of 6,903) were subsequently convicted of a violent offence. Screening out patients who are at very low risk of violence prior to more detailed clinical assessment may assist the risk assessment process in schizophrenia.     

Artificial asymmetric warming reduces nectar yield in a Tibetan alpine species of Asteraceae

Background and Aims Asymmetric warming is one of the distinguishing features of global climate change, in which winter and night-time temperatures are predicted to increase more than summer and diurnal temperatures. Winter warming weakens vernalization and hence decreases the potential to flower for some perennial herbs, and night warming can reduce carbohydrate concentrations in storage organs. This study therefore hypothesized that asymmetric warming should act to reduce flower number and nectar production per flower in a perennial herb, Saussurea nigrescens, a key nectar plant for pollinators in Tibetan alpine meadows.Methods A long-term (6 years) warming experiment was conducted using open-top chambers placed in a natural meadow and manipulated to achieve asymmetric increases in temperature, as follows: a mean annual increase of 0·7 and 2·7 °C during the growing and non-growing seasons, respectively, combined with an increase of 1·6 and 2·8 °C in the daytime and night-time, respectively, from June to August. Measurements were taken of nectar volume and concentration (sucrose content), and also of leaf non-structural carbohydrate content and plant morphology.Key Results Six years of experimental warming resulted in reductions in nectar volume per floret (64·7 % of control), floret number per capitulum (8·7 %) and capitulum number per plant (32·5 %), whereas nectar concentration remained unchanged. Depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates was significantly higher in the warmed than in the ambient condition. Overall plant density was also reduced by warming, which, when combined with reductions in flower development and nectar volumes, led to a reduction of ∼90 % in nectar production per unit area.Conclusions The negative effect of asymmetric warming on nectar yields in S. nigrescens may be explained by a concomitant depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates. The results thus highlight a novel aspect of how climate change might affect plant–pollinator interactions and plant reproduction via induction of allocation shifts for plants growing in communities subject to asymmetric warming.     

The GD1a glycan is a cellular receptor for adenoviruses causing epidemic keratoconjunctivitis

Adenovirus type 37 (Ad37) is a leading cause of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis (EKC), a severe and highly contagious ocular disease. Whereas most other adenoviruses infect cells by engaging CD46 or the coxsackie and adenovirus receptor (CAR), Ad37 binds previously unknown sialic acid-containing cell surface molecules. By glycan array screening, we show here that the receptor-recognizing knob domain of the Ad37 fiber protein specifically binds a branched hexasaccharide that is present in the GD1a ganglioside and that features two terminal sialic acids. Soluble GD1a glycan and GD1a-binding antibodies efficiently prevented Ad37 virions from binding and infecting corneal cells. Unexpectedly, the receptor is constituted by one or more glycoproteins containing the GD1a glycan motif rather than the ganglioside itself, as shown by binding, infection and flow cytometry experiments. Molecular modeling, nuclear magnetic resonance and X-ray crystallography reveal that the two terminal sialic acids dock into two of three previously established sialic acid-binding sites in the trimeric Ad37 knob. Surface plasmon resonance analysis shows that the knob-GD1a glycan interaction has high affinity. Our findings therefore form a basis for the design and development of sialic acid-containing antiviral drugs for topical treatment of EKC.     

Mechanism of Cross-talk between H2B Ubiquitination and H3 Methylation by Dot1L

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Characterization of phase separation in film forming biopolymer mixtures

Enhanced, tailor-made films can be achieved by combining the good gas barrier of the hydrophilic high amylose maize starch (hylon) with the water resistance of the hydrophobic protein zein. Two polymers are not always miscible in solution, and the phase separation behavior of the mixture is therefore important for the final film structure and its properties. Phase separation of a mixture of these two biopolymers was induced either by cooling, which was observed as growing droplets of the hylon phase which in some cases also formed small aggregates, or by solvent evaporation and studied in real-time in a confocal laser scanning microscope. Solvent evaporation had a much stronger effect on phase separation. During the early stage of phase separation, hylon formed large aggregates and subsequently smaller droplets coalesced with other droplets or large hylon aggregates. The later part of the separation seemed to take place through spinodal decomposition.     

Long and short term variations in suspended particulate material: the influence on light available to the phytoplankton community

The magnitude and frequency of events leading to changes in turbidity have been studied in a large (61 km²), shallow (mean depth 3.4 m) wind-exposed lake basin at the western end of Lake Mälaren, Sweden. In this paper we couple changes in suspended particulate inorganic material (SPIM) resulting from wind driven sediment resuspension, and variations in the discharge and sediment load, to spectral variations in subsurface light and estimates of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). To accomplish this we use a semi-analytical model which predicts the spectral variations in downwelling irradiance (E _d()) and the attenuation coefficient of downwelling irradiance (K _d()), as a function of the concentrations of chlorophyll, dissolved yellow substances, and suspended inorganic and organic particulate material. Unusually high river discharge, led to large inputs of yellow substances and large in lake yellow substance concentrations (a _ys(420) 20 m^–1), causing variations in yellow substance concentration to have the greatest role in influencing temporal trends in the attenuation of PAR and variations in the depth of the euphotic zone (Z _eup). In spite of this, variations in SPIM could account for approximately 60% of the variation in Z _eup attributed to changes in yellow substances alone. Our results show that changes in suspended sediment concentration leads to both long-term and short-term changes in the attenuation of PAR, even in the presence of high concentrations of dissolved yellow substances.     

Estimating and Analyzing Savannah Phenology with a Lagged Time Series Model

Savannah regions are predicted to undergo changes in precipitation patterns according to current climate change projections. This change will affect leaf phenology, which controls net primary productivity. It is of importance to study this since savannahs play an important role in the global carbon cycle due to their areal coverage and can have an effect on the food security in regions that depend on subsistence farming. In this study we investigate how soil moisture, mean annual precipitation, and day length control savannah phenology by developing a lagged time series model. The model uses climate data for 15 flux tower sites across four continents, and normalized difference vegetation index from satellite to optimize a statistical phenological model. We show that all three variables can be used to estimate savannah phenology on a global scale. However, it was not possible to create a simplified savannah model that works equally well for all sites on the global scale without inclusion of more site specific parameters. The simplified model showed no bias towards tree cover or between continents and resulted in a cross-validated r² of 0.6 and root mean squared error of 0.1. We therefore expect similar average results when applying the model to other savannah areas and further expect that it could be used to estimate the productivity of savannah regions.     

Assessing the phylogeographic history of the montane caddisfly Thremma gallicum using mitochondrial and restriction‐site‐associated DNA (RAD) markers

Repeated Quaternary glaciations have significantly shaped the present distribution and diversity of several European species in aquatic and terrestrial habitats. To study the phylogeography of freshwater invertebrates, patterns of intraspecific variation have been examined primarily using mitochondrial DNA markers that may yield results unrepresentative of the true species history. Here, population genetic parameters were inferred for a montane aquatic caddisfly, Thremma gallicum, by sequencing a 658‐bp fragment of the mitochondrial CO1 gene, and 12,514 nuclear RAD loci. T. gallicum has a highly disjunct distribution in southern and central Europe, with known populations in the Cantabrian Mountains, Pyrenees, Massif Central, and Black Forest. Both datasets represented rangewide sampling of T. gallicum. For the CO1 dataset, this included 352 specimens from 26 populations, and for the RAD dataset, 17 specimens from eight populations. We tested 20 competing phylogeographic scenarios using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and estimated genetic diversity patterns. Support for phylogeographic scenarios and diversity estimates differed between datasets with the RAD data favouring a southern origin of extant populations and indicating the Cantabrian Mountains and Massif Central populations to represent highly diverse populations as compared with the Pyrenees and Black Forest populations. The CO1 data supported a vicariance scenario (north–south) and yielded inconsistent diversity estimates. Permutation tests suggest that a few hundred polymorphic RAD SNPs are necessary for reliable parameter estimates. Our results highlight the potential of RAD and ABC‐based hypothesis testing to complement phylogeographic studies on non‐model species.