San Francisco Syncope Rule to predict short-term serious outcomes: a systematic review

Background:

The San Francisco Syncope Rule has been proposed as a clinical decision rule for risk stratification of patients presenting to the emergency department with syncope. It has been validated across various populations and settings. We undertook a systematic review of its accuracy in predicting short-term serious outcomes.

Methods:

We identified studies by means of systematic searches in seven electronic databases from inception to January 2011. We extracted study data in duplicate and used a bivariate random-effects model to assess the predictive accuracy and test characteristics.

Results:

We included 12 studies with a total of 5316 patients, of whom 596 (11%) experienced a serious outcome. The prevalence of serious outcomes across the studies varied between 5% and 26%. The pooled estimate of sensitivity of the San Francisco Syncope Rule was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79–0.93), and the pooled estimate of specificity was 0.52 (95% CI 0.43–0.62). There was substantial between-study heterogeneity (resulting in a 95% prediction interval for sensitivity of 0.55–0.98). The probability of a serious outcome given a negative score with the San Francisco Syncope Rule was 5% or lower, and the probability was 2% or lower when the rule was applied only to patients for whom no cause of syncope was identified after initial evaluation in the emergency department. The most common cause of false-negative classification for a serious outcome was cardiac arrhythmia.

Interpretation:

The San Francisco Syncope Rule should be applied only for patients in whom no cause of syncope is evident after initial evaluation in the emergency department. Consideration of all available electrocardiograms, as well as arrhythmia monitoring, should be included in application of the San Francisco Syncope Rule. Between-study heterogeneity was likely due to inconsistent classification of arrhythmia.Syncope is defined as sudden, transient loss of consciousness with the inability to maintain postural tone, followed by spontaneous recovery and return to pre-existing neurologic function.^1–5 It represents a common clinical problem, accounting for 1%–3% of visits to the emergency department and up to 6% of admissions to acute care hospitals.^6,7Assessment of syncope in patients presenting to the emergency department is challenging because of the heterogeneity of underlying pathophysiologic processes and diseases. Although many underlying causes of syncope are benign, others are associated with substantial morbidity or mortality, including cardiac arrhythmia, myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism and occult hemorrhage.^4,8–10 Consequently, a considerable proportion of patients with benign causes of syncope are admitted for inpatient evaluation.^11,12 Therefore, risk stratification that allows for the safe discharge of patients at low risk of a serious outcome is important for efficient management of patients in emergency departments and for reduction of costs associated with unnecessary diagnostic workup.^12,13In recent years, various prediction rules based on the probability of an adverse outcome after an episode of syncope have been proposed.^3,14–16 However, the San Francisco Syncope Rule, derived by Quinn and colleagues in 2004,³ is the only prediction rule for serious outcomes that has been validated in a variety of populations and settings. This simple, five-step clinical decision rule is intended to identify patients at low risk of short-term serious outcomes^3,17 (Box 1).

Box 1:

San Francisco Syncope Rule³

AimPrediction of short-term (within 30 days) serious outcomes in patients presenting to the emergency department with syncope.DefinitionsSyncope: Transient loss of consciousness with return to baseline neurologic function. Trauma-associated and alcohol- or drug-related loss of consciousness excluded, as is definite seizure or altered mental status.Serious outcome: Death, myocardial infarction, arrhythmia, pulmonary embolism, stroke, subarachnoid hemorrhage, significant hemorrhage or any condition causing or likely to cause a return visit to the emergency department and admission to hospital for a related event.Selection of predictors in multivariable analysis: Fifty predictor variables were evaluated for significant associations with a serious outcome and combined to create a minimal set of predictors that are highly sensitive and specific for prediction of a serious outcome.Clinical decision ruleFive risk factors, indicated by the mnemonic “CHESS,” were identified to predict patients at high risk of a serious outcome:

• C – History of congestive heart failure
• H – Hematocrit < 30%
• E – Abnormal findings on 12-lead ECG or cardiac monitoring¹⁷ (new changes or nonsinus rhythm)
• S – History of shortness of breath
• S – Systolic blood pressure < 90 mm Hg at triage

Note: ECG = electrocardiogram.The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of the accuracy of the San Francisco Syncope Rule in predicting short-term serious outcome for patients presenting to the emergency department with syncope.     

The unusual extended C-terminal helix of the peroxisomal α/β-hydrolase Lpx1 is involved in dimer contacts but dispensable for dimerization

The yeast peroxisomal hydrolase Lpx1 belongs to the α/β-hydrolase superfamily. In the absence of Lpx1, yeast peroxisomes show an aberrant vacuolated morphology similar to what is found in peroxisomal disorder patients. Here, we present the crystal structure of Lpx1 determined at a resolution of 1.9 ?. The structure reveals the complete catalytic triad with an unusual location of the acid residue after strand β6 of the canonical α/β-hydrolase fold. A four-helix cap domain covers the active site. The interface between the α/β-hydrolase core and the cap domain forms the potential substrate binding site, which may also comprise the tunnel that leads into the protein interior and widens into a cavity. Two further tunnels connect the active site to the protein surface, potentially facilitating substrate access. Lpx1 is a homodimer. The α/β-hydrolase core folds of the two protomers form the dimer contact site. Further dimerization contacts arise from the mutual embracement of the cap domain of one protomer by the non-canonical C-terminal helix of the other, resulting in a total buried surface area of some 6000 ?2. The unusual C-terminal helix sticks out from the core fold to which it is connected by an extended flexible loop. We analyzed whether this helix is required for dimerization and for import of the dimer into peroxisomes using biochemical assays in vitro and a microscopy-based interaction assay in mammalian cells. Surprisingly, the C-terminal helix is dispensable for dimerization and dimer import. The unusually robust self-interaction suggests that Lpx1 is imported into peroxisomes as dimer.     

Food composition of the diet in relation to changes in waist circumference adjusted for body mass index

Background

Dietary factors such as low energy density and low glycemic index were associated with a lower gain in abdominal adiposity. A better understanding of which food groups/items contribute to these associations is necessary.

Objective

To ascertain the association of food groups/items consumption on prospective annual changes in “waist circumference for a given BMI” (WC_BMI), a proxy for abdominal adiposity.

Design

We analyzed data from 48,631 men and women from 5 countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Anthropometric measurements were obtained at baseline and after a median follow-up time of 5.5 years. WC_BMI was defined as the residuals of waist circumference regressed on BMI, and annual change in WC_BMI (ΔWC_BMI, cm/y) was defined as the difference between residuals at follow-up and baseline, divided by follow-up time. The association between food groups/items and ΔWC_BMI was modelled using centre-specific adjusted linear regression, and random-effects meta-analyses to obtain pooled estimates.

Results

Higher fruit and dairy products consumption was associated with a lower gain in WC_BMI whereas the consumption of white bread, processed meat, margarine, and soft drinks was positively associated with ΔWC_BMI. When these six food groups/items were analyzed in combination using a summary score, those in the highest quartile of the score – indicating a more favourable dietary pattern –showed a ΔWC_BMI of −0.11 (95% CI −0.09 to −0.14) cm/y compared to those in the lowest quartile.

Conclusion

A dietary pattern high in fruit and dairy and low in white bread, processed meat, margarine, and soft drinks may help to prevent abdominal fat accumulation.     

Olfactory and gustatory sensitivity in adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder

Recently, research on olfactory functions in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has become prominent, whereas gustation has never been investigated. Increased odor sensitivity was found in medication-na?ve children with ADHD, but not in adult ADHD, which might be due to a dopaminergic dysregulation presumed to underlie this disorder. Taste sensitivity, in particular bitter sensitivity as a hereditary trait, also might be altered in ADHD. To examine olfactory and gustatory functions in adult ADHD patients, we assessed odor sensitivity by Sniffin' Sticks, taste sensitivity by taste strips, and bitter sensitivity by the one-solution test in women with ADHD (n = 12), Bulimia Nervosa (n = 12), and healthy control women (n = 12). Bulimia Nervosa as second patient group was included to control for effects of impulsivity. Preliminary results indicate that ADHD patients were significantly more often classified as tasters, i.e. perceived the bitter taste as more intense, compared to both bulimic patients and healthy controls. No group differences were found with regard to general odor and taste sensitivity. It is proposed that the higher frequency of tasters in ADHD patients might underlie a genetic variation of the bitter receptor-dependent signaling pathway associated with ADHD.     

Trend in obesity prevalence in European adult cohort populations during follow-up since 1996 and their predictions to 2015

Objective

To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations.

Methods

Data of 97 942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as “Diogenes cohort” in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction.

Results

During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R² = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R² = 0.99).

Conclusion

Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower.     

HIV incidence and risk factors for acquisition in HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda: an HIV vaccine preparedness study

Objectives

To determine the incidence of and risk factors for HIV acquisition in a cohort of HIV-uninfected partners from HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda, and to establish its suitability for HIV vaccine trials.

Methods

HIV-uninfected adults living in HIV discordant couple relationships were enrolled and followed for 2 years. Interviews, medical investigations, HIV counseling and testing, syphilis and urine pregnancy (women) tests were performed at quarterly visits. Sexual risk behaviour data were collected every 6 months.

Results

495 participants were enrolled, of whom 34 seroconverted during 786.6 person-years of observation (PYO). The overall HIV incidence rate [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 4.3 [3.1–6]; and 4.3 [2.8–6.4] and 4.4 [2.5–8] per 100 PYO in men and women respectively. Independent baseline predictors for HIV acquisition were young age [18–24 (aRR = 4.1, 95% CI 1.6–10.8) and 25–34 (aRR = 2.7, 95% CI 1.2–5.8) years]; alcohol use (aRR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.1–6); and reported genital discharge (aRR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.6–7.2) in the past year. Condom use frequency in the year preceding enrolment was predictive of a reduced risk of HIV acquisition [sometimes (aRR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2–0.8); always (aRR = 0.1, 95% CI 0.02–0.9)]. In the follow-up risk analysis, young age [18–24 (aRR = 6.2, 95% CI 2.2–17.3) and 25-34 (aRR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.1–5.0) years], reported genital discharge (aRR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.1–5.5), serological syphilis (aRR 3.2, 95% CI 1.3–7.7) and the partner being ART naïve (aRR = 4.8, 95% CI 1.4–16.0) were independently associated with HIV acquisition. There were no seroconversions among participants who reported consistent condom use during the study.

Conclusions

The study has identified important risk factors for HIV acquisition among HIV discordant couples. HIV-uninfected partners in discordant couples may be a suitable population for HIV vaccine efficacy trials. However, recent confirmation that ART reduces heterosexual HIV transmission may make it unfeasible to conduct HIV prevention trials in this population.     

Treatment of tuberculosis in a region with high drug resistance: outcomes, drug resistance amplification and re-infection

Introduction

Emerging antituberculosis drug resistance is a serious threat for tuberculosis (TB) control, especially in Eastern European countries.

Methods

We combined drug susceptibility results and molecular strain typing data with treatment outcome reports to assess the influence of drug resistance on TB treatment outcomes in a prospective cohort of patients from Abkhazia (Georgia). Patients received individualized treatment regimens based on drug susceptibility testing (DST) results. Definitions for antituberculosis drug resistance and treatment outcomes were in line with current WHO recommendations. First and second line DST, and molecular typing were performed in a supranational laboratory for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) strains from consecutive sputum smear-positive TB patients at baseline and during treatment.

Results

At baseline, MTB strains were fully drug-susceptible in 189/326 (58.0%) of patients. Resistance to at least H or R (PDR-TB) and multidrug-resistance (MDR-TB) were found in 69/326 (21.2%) and 68/326 (20.9%) of strains, respectively. Three MDR-TB strains were also extensively resistant (XDR-TB). During treatment, 3/189 (1.6%) fully susceptible patients at baseline were re-infected with a MDR-TB strain and 2/58 (3.4%) PDR-TB patients became MDR-TB due to resistance amplification. 5/47 (10.6%) MDR- patients became XDR-TB during treatment. Treatment success was observed in 161/189 (85.2%), 54/69 (78.3%) and 22/68 (32.3%) of patients with fully drug susceptible, PDR- and MDR-TB, respectively. Development of ofloxacin resistance was significantly associated with a negative treatment outcome.

Conclusion

In Abkhazia, a region with high prevalence of drug resistant TB, the use of individualized MDR-TB treatment regimens resulted in poor treatment outcomes and XDR-TB amplification. Nosocomial transmission of MDR-TB emphasizes the importance of infection control in hospitals.