An unexpected influence of widely used significance thresholds on the distribution of reported P-values

We consider the problematic relationship between publication success and statistical significance in the light of analyses in which we examine the distribution of published probability (P) values across the statistical 'significance' range, below the 5% probability threshold. P-values are often judged according to whether they lie beneath traditionally accepted thresholds (< 0.05, < 0.01, < 0.001, < 0.0001); we examine how these thresholds influence the distribution of reported absolute P-values in published scientific papers, the majority in biological sciences. We collected published P-values from three leading journals, and summarized their distribution using the frequencies falling across and within these four threshold values between 0.05 and 0. These published frequencies were then fitted to three complementary null models which allowed us to predict the expected proportions of P-values in the top and bottom half of each inter-threshold interval (i.e. those lying below, as opposed to above, each P-value threshold). Statistical comparison of these predicted proportions, against those actually observed, provides the first empirical evidence for a remarkable excess of probability values being cited on, or just below, each threshold relative to the smoothed theoretical distributions. The pattern is consistent across thresholds and journals, and for whichever theoretical approach used to generate our expected proportions. We discuss this novel finding and its implications for solving the problems of publication bias and selective reporting in evolutionary biology.     

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species

Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting long-term coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion.     

Potential impact of process parameters upon the bacterial diversity in the mesophilic anaerobic digestion of beet silage

The impact of the process parameters hydraulic retention time (HRT), organic loading rate (OLR) and substrate upon bacterial diversity was analyzed. Therefore, a controlled anaerobic fermentation (1755 days) of beet silage, only initially inoculated with manure, was monitored by the amplified “ribosomal DNA” restriction analysis. More than 85% of detected operational taxonomic units (OTUs) could not be assigned to described Bacteria. In contrast to studies analyzing the digestion of energy crops in the presence of manure, Chloroflexi were detected, whereas Clostridia and Chloroflexi were identified as persistent groups. Both groups are known as potential hydrogen producers or users. Species distribution patterns for Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, Synergistetes and Thermotogae were not clearly linked to process parameters. The presence of Planctomycetes, Actinobacteria and Alcaligenaceae was related to long HRTs and short OLRs, while Acidobacteria were governed by short HRTs and high OLRs, respectively. The impact of substrate variations on diversity was minute.     

Monitoring temporal trends in spatially structured populations: how should sampling effort be allocated between space and time?

Estimating temporal trends in spatially structured populations has a critical role to play in understanding regional changes in biological populations and developing management strategies. Designing effective monitoring programmes to estimate these trends requires important decisions to be made about how to allocate sampling effort among spatial replicates (i.e. number of sites) and temporal replicates (i.e. how often to survey) to minimise uncertainty in trend estimates. In particular, the optimal mix of spatial and temporal replicates is likely to depend upon the spatial and temporal correlations in population dynamics. Although there has been considerable interest in the ecological literature on understanding spatial and temporal correlations in species’ population dynamics, little attention has been paid to its consequences for monitoring design. We address this issue using model‐based survey design to identify the optimal allocation of sampling effort among spatial and temporal replicates for estimating population trends under different levels of spatial and temporal correlation. Based on linear trends, we show that how we should allocate sampling effort among spatial and temporal replicates depends crucially on the spatial and temporal correlations in population dynamics, environmental variation, observation error and the spatial variation in temporal trends. When spatial correlation is low and temporal correlation is high, the best option is likely to be to sample many sites infrequently, particularly when observation error and/or spatial variation in temporal trends are high. When spatial correlation is high and temporal correlation is low, the best option is likely to be to sample few sites frequently, particularly when observation error and/or spatial variation in temporal trends are low. When abundances are spatially independent, it is always preferable to maximise spatial replication. This provides important insights into how spatio‐temporal monitoring programmes should be designed to estimate temporal trends in spatially structured populations.     

Rates of phenotypic evolution of ecological characters and sexual traits during the Tanganyikan cichlid adaptive radiation

Theory suggests that sexual traits evolve faster than ecological characters. However, characteristics of a species niche may also influence evolution of sexual traits. Hence, a pending question is whether ecological characters and sexual traits present similar tempo and mode of evolution during periods of rapid ecological divergence, such as adaptive radiation. Here, we use recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods to analyse the temporal dynamics of evolution for ecological and sexual traits in Tanganyikan cichlids. Our results indicate that whereas disparity in ecological characters was concentrated early in the radiation, disparity in sexual traits remained high throughout the radiation. Thus, closely related Tanganyikan cichlids presented higher disparity in sexual traits than ecological characters. Sexual traits were also under stronger selection than ecological characters. In sum, our results suggest that ecological characters and sexual traits present distinct evolutionary patterns, and that sexual traits can evolve faster than ecological characters, even during adaptive radiation.     

UniCarb-DB: a database resource for glycomic discovery

Glycosylation is one of the most important post-translational modifications of proteins, known to be involved in pathogen recognition, innate immune response and protection of epithelial membranes. However, when compared to the tools and databases available for the processing of high-throughput proteomic data, the glycomic domain is severely lacking. While tools to assist the analysis of mass spectrometry (MS) and HPLC are continuously improving, there are few resources available to support liquid chromatography (LC)-MS/MS techniques for glycan structure profiling. Here, we present a platform for presenting oligosaccharide structures and fragment data characterized by LC-MS/MS strategies. The database is annotated with high-quality datasets and is designed to extend and reinforce those standards and ontologies developed by existing glycomics databases. AVAILABILITY: http://www.unicarb-db.org     

Genetic structure in the coral-reef-associated Banggai cardinalfish, Pterapogon kauderni

In this study, we used 11 polymorphic microsatellite loci to show that oceanic distances as small as 2-5 km are sufficient to produce high levels of population genetic structure (multilocus F(ST) as high as 0.22) in the Banggai cardinalfish (Pterapogon kauderni), a heavily exploited reef fish lacking a pelagic larval dispersal phase. Global F(ST) among all populations, separated by a maximum distance of 203 km, was 0.18 (R(ST) = 0.35). Moreover, two lines of evidence suggest that estimates of F(ST) may actually underestimate the true level of genetic structure. First, within-locus F(ST) values were consistently close to the theoretical maximum set by the average within-population heterozygosity. Second, the allele size permutation test showed that R(ST) values were significantly larger than F(ST) values, indicating that populations have been isolated long enough for mutation to have played a role in generating allelic variation among populations. The high level of microspatial structure observed in this marine fish indicates that life history traits such as lack of pelagic larval phase and a good homing ability do indeed play a role in shaping population genetic structure in the marine realm.     

Multilocus patterns of nucleotide diversity, linkage disequilibrium and demographic history of Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst

DNA polymorphism at 22 loci was studied in an average of 47 Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] haplotypes sampled in seven populations representative of the natural range. The overall nucleotide variation was limited, being lower than that observed in most plant species so far studied. Linkage disequilibrium was also restricted and did not extend beyond a few hundred base pairs. All populations, with the exception of the Romanian population, could be divided into two main domains, a Baltico-Nordic and an Alpine one. Mean Tajima's D and Fay and Wu's H across loci were both negative, indicating the presence of an excess of both rare and high-frequency-derived variants compared to the expected frequency spectrum in a standard neutral model. Multilocus neutrality tests based on D and H led to the rejection of the standard neutral model and exponential growth in the whole population as well as in the two main domains. On the other hand, in all three cases the data are compatible with a severe bottleneck occurring some hundreds of thousands of years ago. Hence, demographic departures from equilibrium expectations and population structure will have to be accounted for when detecting selection at candidate genes and in association mapping studies, respectively.     

Induction of dendritic cell migration upon Toxoplasma gondii infection potentiates parasite dissemination

The processes leading to systemic dissemination of the obligate intracellular parasite Toxoplasma gondii remain unelucidated. In vitro studies on human and murine dendritic cells (DC) revealed that active invasion of DC by Toxoplasma induces a state of hypermotility in DC, enabling transmigration of infected DC across endothelial cell monolayers in the absence of chemotactic stimuli. Infected DC exhibited upregulation of maturation markers and co-stimulatory molecules. While modulation of cell adhesion molecules CD11/CD18 was similar for Toxoplasma-infected DC and lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-matured DC, Toxoplasma-infected DC did not exhibit upregulation of CD54/ICAM-1. Induction of host cell migration in vitro required live intracellular parasite(s) and was inhibited by uncoupling the Gi-protein signalling pathway with pertussis toxin, but did not depend on CCR5, CCR7 or Toll/interleukin-1 receptor signalling. When migration of Toxoplasma-infected DC was compared with migration of LPS-stimulated DC in vivo, similar or higher numbers of Toxoplasma-infected DC reached the mesenteric lymph nodes and spleen respectively. Adoptive transfer of Toxoplasma-infected DC resulted in more rapid dissemination of parasites to distant organs and in exacerbation of infection compared with inoculation with free parasites. Altogether, these findings show that Toxoplasma is able to subvert the regulation of host cell motility and likely exploits the host's natural pathways of cellular migration for parasite dissemination.