Markov Model Predicts Changes in STH Prevalence during Control Activities Even with a Reduced Amount of Baseline Information

Background

Estimating the reduction in levels of infection during implementation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control programmes is important to measure their performance and to plan interventions. Markov modelling techniques have been used with some success to predict changes in STH prevalence following treatment in Viet Nam. The model is stationary and to date, the prediction has been obtained by calculating the transition probabilities between the different classes of intensity following the first year of drug distribution and assuming that these remain constant in subsequent years. However, to run this model longitudinal parasitological data (including intensity of infection) are required for two consecutive years from at least 200 individuals. Since this amount of data is not often available from STH control programmes, the possible application of the model in control programme is limited. The present study aimed to address this issue by adapting the existing Markov model to allow its application when a more limited amount of data is available and to test the predictive capacities of these simplified models.

Method

We analysed data from field studies conducted with different combination of three parameters: (i) the frequency of drug administration; (ii) the drug distributed; and (iii) the target treatment population (entire population or school-aged children only). This analysis allowed us to define 10 sets of standard transition probabilities to be used to predict prevalence changes when only baseline data are available (simplified model 1). We also formulated three equations (one for each STH parasite) to calculate the predicted prevalence of the different classes of intensity from the total prevalence. These equations allowed us to design a simplified model (SM2) to obtain predictions when the classes of intensity at baseline were not known. To evaluate the performance of the simplified models, we collected data from the scientific literature on changes in STH prevalence during the implementation of 26 control programmes in 16 countries. Using the baseline data observed, we applied the simplified models and predicted the onward prevalence of STH infection at each time-point for which programme data were available. We then compared the output from the model with the observed data from the programme.

Results

The comparison between the model-predicted prevalence and the observed values demonstrated a good accuracy of the predictions. In 77% of cases the original model predicted a prevalence within five absolute percentage points from the observed figure, for the simplified model one in 69% of cases and for the simplified model two in 60% of cases. We consider that the STH Markov model described here could be an important tool for programme managers to monitor the progress of their control programmes and to select the appropriate intervention. We also developed, and made freely available online, a software tool to enable the use of the STH Markov model by personnel with limited knowledge of mathematical models.     

Seasonal flight activity and genetic relatedness of Torymus species in Italy

相似文献   

Impact of metal accumulation on Quercus ilex L. leaf traits

Plant and Soil - The aims of this research were: i) to compare Cr, Cu, Ni and Pb concentrations in Quercus ilex L. leaves collected at urban/industrial and urban areas; ii) to investigate the main...     

Discrimination between extreme chronotypes using the full and reduced version of the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire

The aim of this study was to carry out a comparison of the ability to discriminate between extreme chronotypes, i.e., morning- and evening-types, among the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ) and its reduced version (rMEQ). To this end a secondary analysis of cohort studies, using two different approaches, was carried out. The first, subjective, relied on the computing of overlap between extreme chronotypes according to their hourly ideal bedtime, get-up time and midpoint of sleep reported at the MEQ and rMEQ, while the second, objective, on the corresponding actual-actigraphic times. At the subjective approach, 2706 participants filled in the MEQ, while 940 the rMEQ (age range of both groups: 18–30 years). The overlap was significantly lower among those who filled the rMEQ than MEQ when considering ideal midpoint of sleep (13.70% and 46.28%, respectively) and get-up time (47.04% and 62.34%, respectively). At the objective approach, 51 participants filled in the MEQ while 52 the rMEQ (age range: 19–30 years in both groups) at the end of one week of actigraphic recording. No significantly different overlap across those who filled the MEQ or rMEQ was observed with reference to the examined actigraphic times. Results of subjective assessment showed as rMEQ more clearly discriminated between extreme chronotypes than MEQ. The attempt to find an objective confirmation did not provide the same results, probably as a consequence of a masking effect by social rhythms.     

Maroteaux-lamy syndrome: five novel mutations and their structural localization

Maroteaux-Lamy syndrome (mucopolysaccharidosis type VI, MPS VI) is an autosomal recessive disorder due to the deficiency of the lysosomal enzyme N-acetylgalactosamine-4-sulfatase (arylsulfatase B, ASB). Mutation analysis in Maroteaux-Lamy syndrome resulted in the identification of approximately 40 molecular defects underlying a great genetic heterogeneity. Here we report five novel mutations in Italian subjects: S65F, P116H, R315Q, Q503X, P531R; each defect was confirmed by restriction enzyme or amplification refractory mutation system (ARMS) analysis. We also performed a three-dimensional (3-D) structure analysis of the alterations identified by us, and of an additional 22 point mutations reported by other groups, in an attempt to draw helpful information about their possible effects on protein conformation.     

High Irradiance Induced Changes of Photosystem 2 in Young and Mature Needles of Cypress (Cupressus sempervirens L.)

Photoinhibition of photosynthesis was studied in young and mature detached sun needles of cypress under high irradiance (HI) of about 1 900 mol m^–2 s^–1. The degree of photoinhibition was determined by means of the ratio of variable to maximum chlorophyll (Chl) fluorescence (F_v/F_m) and electron transport measurements. Compared with the mature needles, the young needles, containing about half the amount of Chl a+b per unit area, exhibited a higher proportion of total carotenoids (Car) as xanthophyll cycle pigments and had an increased ratio of Car/Chl a+b. The potential efficiency of photosystem (PS) 2, F_v/F_m, markedly declined in HI-treated young needles without significant increase of F₀ level. In contrast, the F_v/F_m ratio declined with significant increase of F₀ level in mature needles. In isolated thylakoids, the rate of whole chain and PS2 activity markedly decreased in young HI-needles in comparison with mature needles. A smaller inhibition of PS1 activity was observed in both needles. In the subsequent dark incubation, fast recovery was found in both needle Types that reached maximum PS2 efficiencies similar to those observed in non-photoinhibited needles. The artificial exogenous electron donors DPC, NH₂OH, and Mn²⁺ failed to restore the HI-induced loss of PS2 activity in mature needles, while DPC and NH₂OH significantly restored it in young needles. Hence, HI-inactivation was on the donor side of PS2 in young needles and on the acceptor side of PS2 in mature needles. Quantification of the PS2 reaction centre proteins D1 and 33 kDa protein of water splitting complex following HI-exposure of needles showed pronounced differences between young and mature needles. The large loss of PS2 activity in HI-needles was due to the marked loss of D1 protein of the PS2 reaction centre in mature needles and of the 33 kDa protein in young needles.     

Piezoelectric sensors for dioxins: a biomimetic approach

The aim of this work was to design a fast, cheap and easy to use analytical system for dioxins. Piezoelectric sensors coupled with the pentapeptides as biomimetic traps (the receptors), selective for the dioxins, were used for the realisation of this analytical system. A methodology to select specific receptors among all possible pentapeptides randomly generated was represented by the use of molecular modelling software. Three peptides called later on A, B and C (A:[N]Asn-Phe-Gln-Gly-Ile[C]; B:[N]Asn-Phe-Gln-Gly-Gln[C]; C:[N]Asn-Phe-Gln-Gly-Phe[C]), were selected and evaluated for their potential usage as artificial receptors in solid-gas analysis by using a quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) sensors array. The peptide sequences were functionalised by two terminal cysteine residues in order to achieve a covalent interaction with the QCM gold surface. A manganese-porphyrin complex and two other pentapeptides, a pentaglutamine (pentapeptide D) and a pentalysine (pentapeptide E), were used as negative control sensors. The QCM sensors (A, B and C) gave a good linearity against different sample concentrations of the 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and a mixture of dioxins. In particular, the selectivity against 2,3,7,8-TCDD was nicely correlated to the estimated binding energy of the receptors calculated by computational modelling. The cross-reactivity of the system was quantified using commercial polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) mixtures (dioxin-like compounds).