Independent external validation of nomograms for predicting risk of low-trauma fracture and hip fracture

Background

A set of nomograms based on the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study predicts the five- and ten-year absolute risk of fracture using age, bone mineral density and history of falls and low-trauma fracture. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of these nomograms among participants in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study.

Methods

We included participants aged 55–95 years for whom bone mineral density measurement data and at least one year of follow-up data were available. Self-reported incident fractures were identified by yearly postal questionnaire or interview (years 3, 5 and 10). We included low-trauma fractures before year 10, except those of the skull, face, hands, ankles and feet. We used a Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

Among 4152 women, there were 583 fractures, with a mean follow-up time of 8.6 years. Among 1606 men, there were 116 fractures, with a mean follow-up time of 8.3 years. Increasing age, lower bone mineral density, prior fracture and prior falls were associated with increased risk of fracture. For low-trauma fractures, the concordance between predicted risk and fracture events (Harrell C) was 0.69 among women and 0.70 among men. For hip fractures, the concordance was 0.80 among women and 0.85 among men. The observed fracture risk was similar to the predicted risk in all quintiles of risk except the highest quintile of women, where it was lower. The net reclassification index (19.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.3% to 32.2%), favours the Dubbo nomogram over the current Canadian guidelines for men.

Interpretation

The published nomograms provide good fracture-risk discrimination in a representative sample of the Canadian population.Current recommendations for the treatment of osteoporosis are in transition. The T-score-based definition of osteoporosis and osteopenia by the expert committee of the World Health Organization on bone mineral density has been used in many guidelines to set intervention thresholds for treatment. However, studies have consistently reported that the highest number of fractures in a given population occurs in those with osteopenic or normal bone mineral density.^1,2 In fact, the National Osteoporosis Foundation has singled out people with osteopenic bone mineral density as a population in which assessment for fracture risk is merited.³Nevertheless, appropriate prevention and treatment strategies for such people are uncertain.⁴ Recent developments include the assessment of absolute fracture risk based on bone mineral density and other risk factors. Current Canadian methodology determines categorical risk based on age, sex, T-score, fracture history and glucocorticoid use.⁵ These criteria were derived from Swedish data, but have been assessed and validated in a cohort of Manitoba women.⁶ Newer nomograms based on the Australian cohort of the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study⁷ are now available for the calculation of low-trauma hip fracture⁸ and any fracture.⁹ These nomograms provide continuous estimates for five- and 10-year absolute fracture risk in both men and women (available at http://fractureriskcalculator.com). The use of factors in addition to bone mineral density may provide a better assessment of fracture risk for people who are near the T-score thresholds and facilitate decisions regarding therapeutic intervention.A key step in the development of any prediction model is the assessment of its validity.¹⁰ The aim of our study was to assess the performance of the Australian-derived nomogram among community-dwelling Canadians aged 55–95 years old. The first part of this assessment was a comparison of the nomogram model using the same variables, but using data from a Canadian population — participants in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (www.camos.org). The second part involved computing the calibration and discrimination of the nomogram in a Canadian cohort. The final part was comparison of the new assessments with the existing Canadian risk classification system.     

Oceanographic barriers,divergence, and admixture: Phylogeography and taxonomy of two putative subspecies of short‐finned pilot whale

Genomic phylogeography plays an important role in describing evolutionary processes and their geographic, ecological, or cultural drivers. These drivers are often poorly understood in marine environments, which have fewer obvious barriers to mixing than terrestrial environments. Taxonomic uncertainty of some taxa (e.g., cetaceans), due to the difficulty in obtaining morphological data, can hamper our understanding of these processes. One such taxon, the short‐finned pilot whale, is recognized as a single global species but includes at least two distinct morphological forms described from stranding and drive hunting in Japan, the “Naisa” and “Shiho” forms. Using samples (n = 735) collected throughout their global range, we examine phylogeographic patterns of divergence by comparing mitogenomes and nuclear SNP loci. Our results suggest three types within the species: an Atlantic Ocean type, a western/central Pacific and Indian Ocean (Naisa) type, and an eastern Pacific Ocean and northern Japan (Shiho) type. mtDNA control region differentiation indicates these three types form two subspecies, separated by the East Pacific Barrier: Shiho short‐finned pilot whale, in the eastern Pacific Ocean and northern Japan, and Naisa short‐finned pilot whale, throughout the remainder of the species' distribution. Our data further indicate two diverging populations within the Naisa subspecies, in the Atlantic Ocean and western/central Pacific and Indian Oceans, separated by the Benguela Barrier off South Africa. This study reveals a process of divergence and speciation within a globally‐distributed, mobile marine predator, and indicates the importance of the East Pacific Barrier to this evolutionary process.     

Flexible fiberoptic bronchoscopy of the rhesus monkey (Macaca mulatta).

Using a flexible fiberoptic bronchoscope, 10 rhesus monkeys were bronchoscoped 30 times without complication. The bronchoscopic anatomy was found to be similar to that of the human except for the presence of a right cardiac lobe in the monkey.     

Sphaerotilus natans,a Neutrophilic Iron-Related Sheath-Forming Bacterium: Perspectives for Metal Remediation Strategies

Sphaerotilus natans is a neutrophilic sheath-forming microorganism from the Sphaerotilus-Leptothrix group of iron-related bacteria, known to form bacteriogenic iron oxides (BIOS) frequently deposited on cell surfaces as well as on sheaths and extracellular polymeric substances. S. natans has been reported to be an excellent sorbent for inorganic pollutants, either due to direct sorption onto biological surfaces or due to sorption onto BIOS. However, its filaments can cause bulking problems in wastewater treatment plants. This article promotes the potential applications of Sphaerotilus natans in bioremediation by reviewing its physiology and the fundamental understanding of sheath-forming mechanisms as well as iron biomineralization processes.     

Viewing Complex,Dynamic Scenes “Through the Eyes” of Another Person: The Gaze-Replay Paradigm

We present a novel “Gaze-Replay” paradigm that allows the experimenter to directly test how particular patterns of visual input—generated from people’s actual gaze patterns—influence the interpretation of the visual scene. Although this paradigm can potentially be applied across domains, here we applied it specifically to social comprehension. Participants viewed complex, dynamic scenes through a small window displaying only the foveal gaze pattern of a gaze “donor.” This was intended to simulate the donor’s visual selection, such that a participant could effectively view scenes “through the eyes” of another person. Throughout the presentation of scenes presented in this manner, participants completed a social comprehension task, assessing their abilities to recognize complex emotions. The primary aim of the study was to assess the viability of this novel approach by examining whether these Gaze-Replay windowed stimuli contain sufficient and meaningful social information for the viewer to complete this social perceptual and cognitive task. The results of the study suggested this to be the case; participants performed better in the Gaze-Replay condition compared to a temporally disrupted control condition, and compared to when they were provided with no visual input. This approach has great future potential for the exploration of experimental questions aiming to unpack the relationship between visual selection, perception, and cognition.     

A simple method for measurement of maximal downstroke power on friction-loaded cycle ergometer

The aim of this study was to propose and validate a post-hoc correction method to obtain maximal power values taking into account inertia of the flywheel during sprints on friction-loaded cycle ergometers. This correction method was obtained from a basic postulate of linear deceleration-time evolution during the initial phase (until maximal power) of a sprint and included simple parameters as flywheel inertia, maximal velocity, time to reach maximal velocity and friction force. The validity of this model was tested by comparing measured and calculated maximal power values for 19 sprint bouts performed by five subjects against 0.6-1 N kg(-1) friction loads. Non-significant differences between measured and calculated maximal power (1151+/-169 vs. 1148+/-170 W) and a mean error index of 1.31+/-1.20% (ranging from 0.09% to 4.20%) showed the validity of this method. Furthermore, the differences between measured maximal power and power neglecting inertia (20.4+/-7.6%, ranging from 9.5% to 33.2%) emphasized the usefulness of power correcting in studies about anaerobic power which do not include inertia, and also the interest of this simple post-hoc method.     

Conifers in cold environments synchronize maximum growth rate of tree-ring formation with day length

Intra-annual radial growth rates and durations in trees are reported to differ greatly in relation to species, site and environmental conditions. However, very similar dynamics of cambial activity and wood formation are observed in temperate and boreal zones. Here, we compared weekly xylem cell production and variation in stem circumference in the main northern hemisphere conifer species (genera Picea, Pinus, Abies and Larix) from 1996 to 2003. Dynamics of radial growth were modeled with a Gompertz function, defining the upper asymptote (A), x-axis placement (beta) and rate of change (kappa). A strong linear relationship was found between the constants beta and kappa for both types of analysis. The slope of the linear regression, which corresponds to the time at which maximum growth rate occurred, appeared to converge towards the summer solstice. The maximum growth rate occurred around the time of maximum day length, and not during the warmest period of the year as previously suggested. The achievements of photoperiod could act as a growth constraint or a limit after which the rate of tree-ring formation tends to decrease, thus allowing plants to safely complete secondary cell wall lignification before winter.     

Do European Standard Disinfectant tests truly simulate in‐use microbial and organic soiling conditions on food preparation surfaces?

Aims: The results from European standard disinfectant tests are used as one basis to approve the use of disinfectants in Europe. The design of these laboratory‐based tests should thus simulate as closely as possible the practical conditions and challenges that the disinfectants would encounter in use. No evidence is available that the organic and microbial loading in these tests simulates actual levels in the food service sector. Methods and Results: Total organic carbon (TOC) and total viable count (TVC) were determined on 17 visibly clean and 45 visibly dirty surfaces in two restaurants and the food preparation surfaces of a large retail store. These values were compared to reference values recovered from surfaces soiled with the organic and microbial loading, following the standard conditions of the European Surface Test for bactericidal efficacy, EN 13697. Conclusions: The TOC reference values for clean and dirty conditions were higher than the data from practice, but cannot be regarded as statistical outliers. This was considered as a conservative assessment; however, as additional nine TOC samples from visibly dirty surfaces were discarded from the analysis, as their loading made them impossible to process. Similarly, the recovery of test organisms from surfaces contaminated according to EN 13697 was higher than the TVC from visibly dirty surfaces in practice; though they could not be regarded as statistical outliers of the whole data field. No correlation was found between TVC and TOC in the sampled data, which re‐emphasizes the potential presence of micro‐organisms on visibly clean surfaces and thus the need for the same degree of disinfection as visibly dirty surfaces. Significance and Impact of the Study: The organic soil and the microbial burden used in EN disinfectant standards represent a realistic worst‐case scenario for disinfectants used in the food service and food‐processing areas.     

Discovery of novel P2Y14 agonist and antagonist using conventional and nonconventional methods

P2Y14 is a member of the pyrimidinergic GPCR family. UDP-Glc has been previously shown to activate human P2Y14, whereas UDP was unable to activate the receptor. In this study, the authors used conventional and nonconventional methods to further characterize P2Y14 and its ligands. Conventional calcium mobilization and nonconventional cellular impedance functional assays revealed that UMP and UDP selectively activated HEK cells coexpressing P2Y14 and Gα(qi5). In the impedance assays, the presence of exogenous Gα(qi5) resulted in agonist-induced Gq signaling, whereas in the absence of exogenous Gα(qi5), the signal was indicative of Gi. The authors established the first P2Y14 membrane filtration binding assay using a novel optimized expression vector and [(3)H]UDP as radioligand. UDP-Glc, UMP, and UDP dose dependently inhibited [(3)H]UDP binding in the binding assay, and saturation analysis revealed that UDP bound P2Y14 with a K(D) = 10 nM and a B(max) = 110 pmol/mg. The authors screened a phosphonate library and identified compound A, which inhibited UDP-Glc-mediated calcium signaling in the fluorometric imaging plate reader assay (IC(50) = 2.3 μM) and competed for [(3)H]UDP binding in the novel binding assay with a K(i) = 1280 nM.     

Crucial roles of Sp1 and epigenetic modifications in the regulation of the CLDN4 promoter in ovarian cancer cells

Claudins form a large family of tight junction proteins that have essential roles in the control of paracellular ion flux and the maintenance of cell polarity. Many studies have shown that several claudin family members are abnormally expressed in various cancers. In particular, CLDN4 (encoding claudin-4) is overexpressed in ovarian cancer. However, although CLDN4 overexpression is well established, the mechanisms responsible for this abnormal regulation remain unknown. In the present study, we delineate a small region of the CLDN4 promoter critical for its expression. This region contains two Sp1 sites, both of which are required for promoter activity. However, because of the ubiquitous expression of Sp1, these sites, although necessary, are not sufficient to explain the patterns of gene expression of CLDN4 in various ovarian tissues. We show that the CLDN4 promoter is further controlled by epigenetic modifications of the Sp1-containing critical promoter region. Cells that overexpress CLDN4 exhibit low DNA methylation and high histone H3 acetylation of the critical CLDN4 promoter region, and the reverse is observed in cells that do not express CLDN4. Moreover, the CLDN4-negative cells can be induced to express CLDN4 through treatment with demethylating and/or acetylating agents. Because CLDN4 is elevated in a large fraction of ovarian cancer, the mechanism leading to deregulation may represent a general pathway in ovarian tumorigenesis and may lead to novel strategies for therapy and an overall better understanding of the biology of this disease.