Climate change and the future distributions of aquatic macrophytes across boreal catchments

Aim Aquatic–terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change, and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have severe ecological consequences for freshwater, wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Our aim was to uncover future changes in boreal emergent aquatic macrophyte zones by modelling the occurrence and percentage cover of emergent aquatic vegetation under different climate scenarios in Finland by the 2050s. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods Data derived from different GIS sources were used to estimate future emergent aquatic macrophyte distributions in all catchments in Finland (848 in total). We used generalized additive models (GAM) with a full stepwise selection algorithm and Akaike information criterion to explore the main environmental determinates (climate and geomorphology) of emergent aquatic macrophyte distributions, which were derived from the national subclass of CORINE land‐cover classification. The accuracy of the distribution models (GAMs) was cross‐validated, using percentage of explained deviance and the area under the curve derived from the receiver‐operating characteristic plots. Results Our results indicated that emergent aquatic macrophytes will expand their distributions northwards from the current catchments and percentage cover will increase in all of the catchments in all climate scenarios. Growing degree‐days was the primary determinant affecting distributions of emergent aquatic macrophytes. Inclusion of geomorphological variables clearly improved model performance in both model exercises compared with pure climate variables. Main conclusions Emergent aquatic macrophyte distributions will expand due to climate change. Many emergent aquatic plant species have already expanded their distributions during the past decades, and this process will continue in the years 2051–80. Emergent aquatic macrophytes pose an increasing overgrowth risk for sensitive macrophyte species in boreal freshwater ecosystems, which should be acknowledged in management and conservation actions. We conclude that predictions based on GIS data can provide useful ‘first‐filter’ estimates of changes in aquatic–terrestrial ecotones.     

Stream diatom assemblages as predictors of climate

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Geomorphological disturbance is necessary for predicting fine‐scale species distributions

Disturbances related to geomorphological processes are frequent, widespread and often intense at high latitudes and altitudes, affecting the fine‐scale distribution of many plant species. While the inclusion of physical disturbances into models of species geographic ranges is widely recommended, no studies have yet tested the utility of field‐quantified geomorphological disturbances for terrestrial species distribution modelling. Here we apply generalized additive models and boosted regression trees to examine if the explicit inclusion of terrestrial and fluvial geomorphological variables alters species distribution models for 154 vascular plant, bryophyte and lichen species in north European mountain tundra. The inclusion of these disturbances significantly improved both the explanatory and predictive power of distribution models, with consistent results for all three species groups. Spatial distribution predictions changed considerably for some species after the inclusion of disturbance variables, with fluvial disturbances generating strongly linear features for species influenced by erosion or sediment deposition. As a consequence, models incorporating geomorphological variables produced markedly more refined distribution maps than simpler models. Predictions of species distributions will thus benefit strongly from the inclusion of fine‐scale geomorphological variables, particularly in areas of active earth surface processes, enabling more accurate forecasting of future species ranges under changing conditions.     

Does the interpolation accuracy of species distribution models come at the expense of transferability?

Model transferability (extrapolative accuracy) is one important feature in species distribution models, required in several ecological and conservation biological applications. This study uses 10 modelling techniques and nationwide data on both (1) species distribution of birds, butterflies, and plants and (2) climate and land cover in Finland to investigate whether good interpolative prediction accuracy for models comes at the expense of transferability – i.e. markedly worse performance in new areas. Models’ interpolation and extrapolation performance was primarily assessed using AUC (the area under the curve of a receiver characteristic plot) and Kappa statistics, with supplementary comparisons examining model sensitivity and specificity values. Our AUC and Kappa results show that extrapolation to new areas is a greater challenge for all included modelling techniques than simple filling of gaps in a well‐sampled area, but there are also differences among the techniques in the degree of transferability. Among the machine‐learning modelling techniques, MAXENT, generalized boosting methods (GBM), and artificial neural networks (ANN) showed good transferability while the performance of GARP and random forest (RF) decreased notably in extrapolation. Among the regression‐based methods, generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM) showed good transferability. A desirable combination of good prediction accuracy and good transferability was evident for three modelling techniques: MAXENT, GBM, and GAM. However, examination of model sensitivity and specificity revealed that model types may differ in their tendencies to either increased over‐prediction of presences or absences in extrapolation, and some of the methods show contrasting changes in sensitivity vs specificity (e.g. ANN and GARP). Among the three species groups, the best transferability was seen with birds, followed closely by butterflies, whereas reliable extrapolation for plant species distribution models appears to be a major challenge at least at this scale. Overall, detailed knowledge of the behaviour of different techniques in various study settings and with different species groups is of utmost importance in predictive modelling.     

Biotic interactions improve prediction of boreal bird distributions at macro-scales

Aim The role of biotic interactions in influencing species distributions at macro‐scales remains poorly understood. Here we test whether predictions of distributions for four boreal owl species at two macro‐scales (10 × 10 km and 40 × 40 km grid resolutions) are improved by incorporating interactions with woodpeckers into climate envelope models. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods Distribution data for four owl and six woodpecker species, along with data for six land cover and three climatic variables, were collated from 2861 10 × 10 km grid cells. Generalized additive models were calibrated using a 50% random sample of the species data from western Finland, and by repeating this procedure 20 times for each of the four owl species. Models were fitted using three sets of explanatory variables: (1) climate only; (2) climate and land cover; and (3) climate, land cover and two woodpecker interaction variables. Models were evaluated using three approaches: (1) examination of explained deviance; (2) four‐fold cross‐validation using the model calibration data; and (3) comparison of predicted and observed values for independent grid cells in eastern Finland. The model accuracy for approaches (2) and (3) was measured using the area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic plot. Results At 10‐km resolution, inclusion of the distribution of woodpeckers as a predictor variable significantly improved the explanatory power, cross‐validation statistics and the predictive accuracy of the models. Inclusion of land cover led to similar improvements at 10‐km resolution, although these improvements were less apparent at 40‐km resolution for both land cover and biotic interactions. Main conclusions Predictions of species distributions at macro‐scales may be significantly improved by incorporating biotic interactions and land cover variables into models. Our results are important for models used to predict the impacts of climate change, and emphasize the need for comprehensive evaluation of the reliability of species–climate impact models.     

Biologic, morphologic, and molecular characterisation of Neospora caninum isolates from littermate dogs

Isolation and biologic and molecular attributes of Neospora caninum from three littermate dogs are described. Tissue cysts were confined to the brain and striated muscles. N. caninum was isolated (isolates NC-6, NC-7, and NC-8) in rodents and cell culture that had been inoculated with brain tissue from the dogs. Schizont-like stages reactive with N. caninum antibodies were seen in cell cultures seeded with bradyzoites released from Percoll-isolated N. caninum tissue cysts from the brain of one dog. Tissue cysts were infective orally to mice and gerbils, but not to cats and dogs. The isolates were also identified as N. caninum by PCR and sequence analysis.     

The major histocompatibility complex in monotremes: an analysis of the evolution of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mhc</Emphasis> class I genes across all three mammalian subclasses

We report the isolation and characterization of cDNA clones of expressed, functional major histocompatibility complex class-I ( Mhc-I) genes from two species of monotremes: the duck-billed platypus and the short-beaked echidna. The cDNA clones were isolated from libraries constructed from spleen RNA, clearly establishing their expression in at least this one peripheral lymphoid organ. From the presence of conserved amino acid residues, it appears the expressed sequences encode molecules that likely function as classical Mhc-I. These clones were isolated using monotreme Mhc-I processed pseudogenes as probes. These processed pseudogenes were isolated from genomic DNA and, based on their structure, are likely independently derived in the platypus and echidna. When all the monotreme sequences were included in phylogenetic analyses, we found no apparent orthologous relationships between the platypus and echidna Mhc-I. Analyses that included a large number of Mhc-I sequences from other taxa support a separate monotreme Mhc-I clade, basal to a therian Mhc-I clade that is comprised of sequences from marsupial and placental mammals. The phylogenies also support the hypothesis that Mhc-I genes of placental mammals, marsupials, and monotremes are derived from three separate lineages of Mhc-I genes, best explained by two rounds of duplications and deletions. The first round would have occurred prior to the divergence of monotremes and therians, and the second prior to the divergence of marsupials and placental mammals. The sequences described here represent the first reported functional monotreme Mhc-I, as well as the first processed pseudogenes of any type from monotremes.