Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change

Forests provide a wide variety of ecosystem services (ES) to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. To foresee how to maximize the adaptation of boreal forests to future warmer conditions and growing demands of forest products, we need a better understanding of the relative importance of forest management and climate change on the supply of ecosystem services. Here, using Finland as a boreal forest case study, we assessed the potential supply of a wide range of ES (timber, bilberry, cowberry, mushrooms, carbon storage, scenic beauty, species habitat availability and deadwood) given seven management regimes and four climate change scenarios. We used the forest simulator SIMO to project forest dynamics for 100 years into the future (2016–2116) and estimate the potential supply of each service using published models. Then, we tested the relative importance of management and climate change as drivers of the future supply of these services using generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the effects of management on the future supply of these ES were, on average, 11 times higher than the effects of climate change across all services, but greatly differed among them (from 0.53 to 24 times higher for timber and cowberry, respectively). Notably, the importance of these drivers substantially differed among biogeographical zones within the boreal biome. The effects of climate change were 1.6 times higher in northern Finland than in southern Finland, whereas the effects of management were the opposite—they were three times higher in the south compared to the north. We conclude that new guidelines for adapting forests to global change should account for regional differences and the variation in the effects of climate change and management on different forest ES.     

Crayfish population size under different routes of pathogen transmission

We present an epidemiological model for the crayfish plague, a disease caused by an invasive oomycete Aphanomyces astaci, and its general susceptible freshwater crayfish host. The pathogen shows high virulence with resulting high mortality rates in freshwater crayfishes native to Europe, Asia, Australia, and South America. The crayfish plague occurrence shows complicated dynamics due to the several types of possible infection routes, which include cannibalism and necrophagy. We explore this complexity by addressing the roles of host cannibalism and the multiple routes of transmission through (1) environment, (2) contact, (3) cannibalism, and (4) scavenging of infected carcasses. We describe a compartment model having six classes of crayfish and a pool of crayfish plague spores from a single nonevolving strain. We show that environmental transmission is the decisive factor in the development of epidemics. Compared with a pathogen-free crayfish population, the presence of the pathogen with a low environmental transmission rate, regardless of the contact transmission rate, decreases the crayfish population size with a low risk of extinction. Conversely, a high transmission rate could drive both the crayfish and pathogen populations to extinction. High contact transmission rate with a low but nonzero environmental transmission rate can have mixed outcomes from extinction to large healthy population, depending on the initial values. Scavenging and cannibalism have a relevant role only when the environmental transmission rate is low, but scavenging can destabilize the system by transmitting the pathogen from a dead to a susceptible host. To the contrary, cannibalism stabilizes the dynamics by decreasing the proportion of infected population. Our model provides a simple tool for further analysis of complex host parasite dynamics and for the general understanding of crayfish disease dynamics in the wild.     

Interpopulation genetic divergence in European grayling (Thymallus thymallus, Salmonidae) at a microgeographic scale: implications for conservation

In order to provide guidelines for conservationand management of the severely declining LakeSaimaa (eastern Finland) European grayling(Thymallus thymallus, Salmonidae), weinvestigated the microgeographic geneticstructure of three populations from the watersystem using 17 microsatellite loci andmitochondrial DNA polymerase chainreaction-restriction fragment lengthpolymorphism analysis. Microsatellites revealedlow levels of intrapopulation genetic diversityand substantial divergence between populationssampled from spawning sites separated by aslittle as 55 kilometers. Mitochondrial analysisindicated the occurrence of two compositehaplotypes within Lake Saimaa. The nucleotidesubstitution estimates between the haplotypessuggested their separation to markedly predatethe late Pleistocene period. The populationsexhibited marked frequency differences for thetwo mitochondrial haplotypes, reinforcing theview of limited interpopulation gene flowwithin Lake Saimaa. An individual basedmicrosatellite Neighbor-Joining dendrogramdemonstrated clustering of all the specimensaccording to their sampling origin. Individualassignment tests revealed 100% assignmentsuccess of individuals into their population oforigin and 100% exclusion (p <0.05) from all alternative referencepopulations. These findings exemplify that T. thymallus populations may be genetically highly structured over small geographical scales and provide a good starting point for the development of appropriate conservation strategies for Lake Saimaa grayling.     

Heterozygosity excess at the cattle DRB locus revealed by large scale genotyping of two closely linked microsatellites

A method for MHC DRB typing in cattle based on two closely linked and highly polymorphic microsatellites is described. The two microsatellites DRBP1ms and DRB3ms are located in intron 2 of the corresponding DRB gene. The very strong linkage disequilibrium between the two loci made it possible to establish DRB microsatellite haplotypes. The typing results with this method on reference samples followed closely that obtained with RFLP and direct sequence analysis of DRB3 exon 2. The method is well suited for large scale genotyping and was successfully applied for typing more than 600 unrelated animals representing 23 breeds. The data were used to test whether the observed DRB allele frequency distributions were consistent with that expected for selectively neutral alleles in populations at mutation-drift equilibrium. A significant heterozygosity excess was detected and there was an obvious trend across breeds towards a more even allele frequency distribution than expected. The deviation may be due to balancing selection acting on the DRB locus or by recent population bottlenecks.     

Familial Migraine: Exclusion of the Susceptibility Gene from the Reported Locus of Familial Hemiplegic Migraine on 19p

Genetic isolates are highly useful in analyses of the molecular background of complex diseases since the enrichment of a limited number of predisposing genes can be predicted in representative families or in specific geographical regions. It has been suggested that the pathophysiology and etiology of familial hemiplegic migraine (FHM) and typical migraine with aura are most probably the same. Recent assignment of FHM locus to chromosome 19p in two French families makes it now possible to test this hypothesis. We report here linkage data on four families with multiple cases of migraine disorder originating from the genetically isolated population of Finland. We were interested to discover whether the migraine in these families would also show linkage to the markers on 19p. We could exclude a region of 50 cM, flanking the reported FHM locus, as a site of migraine locus in our four families. It seems evident that locus heterogeneity exists between different diagnostic classes of migraine spectrum of diseases and also between different ethnic groups.