Guide to the management of rubella problems.

Despite the availability of rubella vaccine the incidence of the congenital rubella syndrome has been increasing in certain regions of Canada. Perhaps this is not surprising in view of the known irregular cyclic activity of rubella virus in a community and the fact that the percentage of seropositive women of childbearing age has not changed appreciable since the vaccine was introduced. Clearly vaccine is not being administered to sufficient numbers of women at risk. Until a much higher percentage of women of childbearing age possess rubella antibody, the costly problem of congenital rubella syndrome is likely to be with us. Common rubella problems relate to four categories: the exposed pregnant woman, laboratory diagnosis, the infant with suspected congenital rubella and the vaccine. One of the most common questions about the vaccine is the following: Can recently vaccinated individuals disseminate vaccine and infect seronegative contact? The answer is No.     

Routine prenatal screening for HIV in a low-prevalence setting

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study were to assess the effect of British Columbia''s June 1994 guidelines for prenatal HIV screening on the rate of maternal-fetal HIV transmission and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of such screening. METHODS: The authors conducted a retrospective review of pregnancy and delivery statistics, HIV screening practices, laboratory testing volume, prenatal and labour management decisions of HIV-positive women, maternal-fetal transmission rates and associated costs. RESULTS: Over 1995 and 1996, 135,681 women were pregnant and 92,645 carried to term. The rate of HIV testing increased from 55% to 76% of pregnancies on chart review at one hospital between November 1995 and November 1996. On the basis of seroprevalence studies, an estimated 50.2 pregnancies and 34.3 (95% confidence interval 17.6 to 51.0) live births to HIV-positive women were expected. Of 42 identified mother-infant pairs with an estimated date of delivery during 1995 or 1996, 25 were known only through screening. Of these 25 cases, there were 10 terminations, 1 spontaneous abortion and 14 cases in which the woman elected to carry the pregnancy to term with antiretroviral therapy. There was one stillbirth. One instance of maternal-fetal HIV transmission occurred among the 13 live births. The net savings attributable to prevented infections among babies carried to term were $165,586, with a saving per prevented case of $75,266. INTERPRETATION: A routine offer of pregnancy screening for HIV in a low-prevalence setting reduces the rate of maternal-fetal HIV transmission and may rival other widely accepted health care expenditures in terms of cost-effectiveness.     

A Unified Approach to Linking Experimental,Statistical and Computational Analysis of Spike Train Data

A fundamental issue in neuroscience is how to identify the multiple biophysical mechanisms through which neurons generate observed patterns of spiking activity. In previous work, we proposed a method for linking observed patterns of spiking activity to specific biophysical mechanisms based on a state space modeling framework and a sequential Monte Carlo, or particle filter, estimation algorithm. We have shown, in simulation, that this approach is able to identify a space of simple biophysical models that were consistent with observed spiking data (and included the model that generated the data), but have yet to demonstrate the application of the method to identify realistic currents from real spike train data. Here, we apply the particle filter to spiking data recorded from rat layer V cortical neurons, and correctly identify the dynamics of an slow, intrinsic current. The underlying intrinsic current is successfully identified in four distinct neurons, even though the cells exhibit two distinct classes of spiking activity: regular spiking and bursting. This approach – linking statistical, computational, and experimental neuroscience – provides an effective technique to constrain detailed biophysical models to specific mechanisms consistent with observed spike train data.     

Repeated Drought Alters Resistance of Seed Bank Regeneration in Baldcypress Swamps of North America

Recurring drying and wetting events are likely to increase in frequency and intensity in predicted future droughts in the central USA and alter the regeneration potential of species. We explored the resistance of seed banks to successive droughts in 53 sites across the nine locations in baldcypress swamps in the southeastern USA. Along the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley and northern Gulf of Mexico, we investigated the capacity of seed banks to retain viable seeds after successive periods of drying and wetting in a greenhouse study. Mean differences in species richness and seed density were compared to examine the interactions of successive droughts, geographical location and water regime. The results showed that both species richness and total density of germinating seedlings decreased over repeated drought trials. These responses were more pronounced in geographical areas with higher annual mean temperature. In seed banks across the southeastern swamp region, most species were exhausted after Trial 2 or 3, except for semiaquatic species in Illinois and Tennessee, and aquatic species in Texas. Distinct geographical trends in seed bank resistance to drought demonstrate that climate-induced drying of baldcypress swamps could influence the regeneration of species differently across their ranges. Despite the health of adult individuals, lack of regeneration may push ecosystems into a relict status. Seed bank depletion by germination without replenishment may be a major conservation threat in a future with recurring droughts far less severe than megadrought. Nevertheless, the protection of moist refugia might aid conservation.     

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9‐year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km², that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.