Incorporating intraspecific variation into species distribution models improves distribution predictions,but cannot predict species traits for a wide-spread plant species

The most common approach to predicting how species ranges and ecological functions will shift with climate change is to construct correlative species distribution models (SDMs). These models use a species’ climatic distribution to determine currently suitable areas for the species and project its potential distribution under future climate scenarios. A core, rarely tested, assumption of SDMs is that all populations will respond equivalently to climate. Few studies have examined this assumption, and those that have rarely dissect the reasons for intraspecific differences. Focusing on the arctic-alpine cushion plant Silene acaulis, we compared predictive accuracy from SDMs constructed using the species’ full global distribution with composite predictions from separate SDMs constructed using subpopulations defined either by genetic or habitat differences. This is one of the first studies to compare multiple ways of constructing intraspecific-level SDMs with a species-level SDM. We also examine the contested relationship between relative probability of occurrence and species performance or ecological function, testing if SDM output can predict individual performance (plant size) and biotic interactions (facilitation). We found that both genetic- and habitat-informed SDMs are considerably more accurate than a species-level SDM, and that the genetic model substantially differs from and outperforms the habitat model. While SDMs have been used to infer population performance and possibly even biotic interactions, in our system these relationships were extremely weak. Our results indicate that individual subpopulations may respond differently to climate, although we discuss and explore several alternative explanations for the superior performance of intraspecific-level SDMs. We emphasize the need to carefully examine how to best define intraspecific-level SDMs as well as how potential genetic, environmental, or sampling variation within species ranges can critically affect SDM predictions. We urge caution in inferring population performance or biotic interactions from SDM predictions, as these often-assumed relationships are not supported in our study.     

The effects of competition on fitness depend on the sex of both competitors

In intraspecific competition, the sex of competing individuals is likely to be important in determining the outcome of competitive interactions and the way exposure to conspecifics during development influences adult fitness traits. Previous studies have explored differences between males and females in their response to intraspecific competition. However, few have tested how the sex of the competitors, or any interactions between focal and competitor sex, influences the nature and intensity of competition. We set up larval seed beetles Callosobruchus maculatus to develop either alone or in the presence of a male or female competitor and measured a suite of traits: development time, emergence weight; male ejaculate mass, copulation duration, and lifespan; and female lifetime fecundity, offspring egg–adult survival, and lifespan. We found effects of competition and competitor sex on the development time and emergence weight of both males and females, and also of an interaction between focal and competitor sex: Females emerged lighter when competing with another female, while males did not. There was little effect of larval competition on male and female adult fitness traits, with the exception of the effect of a female competitor on a focal female's offspring survival rate. Our results highlight the importance of directly measuring the effects of competition on fitness traits, rather than distant proxies for fitness, and suggest that competition with the sex with the greater resource requirements (here females) might play a role in driving trait evolution. We also found that male–male competition during development resulted in shorter copulation times than male–female competition, a result that remained when controlling for the weight of competitors. Although it is difficult to definitively tease apart the effects of social environment and access to resources, this result suggests that something about the sex of competitors other than their size is driving this pattern.     

Long‐term persistence of wildlife populations in a pastoral area

Facilitating coexistence between people and wildlife is a major conservation challenge in East Africa. Some conservation models aim to balance the needs of people and wildlife, but the effectiveness of these models is rarely assessed. Using a case‐study approach, we assessed the ecological performance of a pastoral area in northern Tanzania (Manyara Ranch) and established a long‐term wildlife population monitoring program (carried out intermittently from 2003 to 2008 and regularly from 2011 to 2019) embedded in a distance sampling framework. By comparing density estimates of the road transect‐based long‐term monitoring to estimates derived from systematically distributed transects, we found that the bias associated with nonrandom placement of transects was nonsignificant. Overall, cattle and sheep and goat reached the greatest densities and several wildlife species occurred at densities similar (zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, Kirk's dik‐dik) or possibly even greater (giraffe, eland, lesser kudu, Grant's gazelle, Thomson's gazelle) than in adjacent national parks in the same ecosystem. Generalized linear mixed models suggested that most wildlife species (8 out of 14) reached greatest densities during the dry season, that wildlife population densities either remained constant or increased over the 17‐year period, and that herbivorous livestock species remained constant, while domestic dog population decreased over time. Cross‐species correlations did not provide evidence for interference competition between grazing or mixed livestock species and wildlife species but indicate possible negative relationships between domestic dog and warthog populations. Overall, wildlife and livestock populations in Manyara Ranch appear to coexist over the 17‐year span. Most likely, this is facilitated by existing connectivity to adjacent protected areas, effective anti‐poaching efforts, spatio‐temporal grazing restrictions, favorable environmental conditions of the ranch, and spatial heterogeneity of surface water and habitats. This long‐term case study illustrates the potential of rangelands to simultaneously support wildlife conservation and human livelihood goals if livestock grazing is restricted in space, time, and numbers.     

Evolutionary trajectory of fish Piscine novirhabdovirus (=Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Virus) across its Laurentian Great Lakes history: Spatial and temporal diversification

Piscine novirhabdovirus = Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Virus (VHSV) first appeared in the Laurentian Great Lakes with large outbreaks from 2005 to 2006, as a new and novel RNA rhabdovirus subgenogroup (IVb) that killed >30 fish species. Interlude periods punctuated smaller more localized outbreaks in 2007, 2010, and 2017, although some fishes tested positive in the intervals. There have not been reports of outbreaks or positives from 2018, 2019, or 2020. Here, we employ a combined population genetics and phylogenetic approach to evaluate spatial and temporal evolutionary trajectory on its G‐gene sequence variation, in comparison with whole‐genome sequences (11,083 bp) from a subset of 44 individual isolates (including 40 newly sequenced ones). Our results show that IVb (N = 184 individual fish isolates) diversified into 36 G‐gene haplotypes from 2003 to 2017, stemming from two originals (“a” and “b”). G‐gene haplotypes “a” and “b” differed by just one synonymous single‐nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) substitution, remained the most abundant until 2011, then disappeared. Group “a” descendants (14 haplotypes) remained most prevalent in the Upper and Central Great Lakes, with eight (51%) having nonsynonymous substitutions. Group “b” descendants primarily have occurred in the Lower Great Lakes, including 22 haplotypes, of which 15 (68%) contained nonsynonymous changes. Evolutionary patterns of the whole‐genome sequences (which had 34 haplotypes among 44 isolates) appear congruent with those from the G‐gene. Virus populations significantly diverged among the Upper, Central, and Lower Great Lakes, diversifying over time. Spatial divergence was apparent in the overall patterns of nucleotide substitutions, while amino acid changes increased temporally. VHSV‐IVb thus significantly differentiated across its less than two decades in the Great Lakes, accompanied by declining outbreaks and virulence. Continuing diversification likely allowed the virus to persist at low levels in resident fish populations, and may facilitate its potential for further and future spread to new habitats and nonacclimated hosts.     

Breaking barriers? Ethnicity and socioeconomic background impact on early career progression in the fields of ecology and evolution

The academic disciplines of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) have long suffered from a lack of diversity. While in recent years there has been some progress in addressing the underrepresentation of women in STEM subjects, other characteristics that have the potential to impact on equality of opportunity have received less attention. In this study, we surveyed 188 early career scientists (ECRs), defined as within 10 years of completing their PhD, in the fields of ecology, evolutionary biology, behaviour, and related disciplines. We examined associations between ethnicity, age, sexual orientation, sex, socioeconomic background, and disability, with measures of career progression, namely publication record, number of applications made before obtaining a postdoc, type of contract, and number of grant applications made. We also queried respondents on perceived barriers to progression and potential ways of overcoming them. Our key finding was that socioeconomic background and ethnicity were associated with measures of career progression. While there was no difference in the number of reported first‐authored papers on PhD completion, ethnic minority respondents reported fewer other‐authored papers. In addition, ECRs from a lower socioeconomic background were more likely to report being in teaching and research positions, rather than research‐only positions, the latter being perceived as more prestigious by some institutions. We discuss our findings in the context of possible inequality of opportunity. We hope that this study will stimulate wider discussion and help to inform strategies to address the underrepresentation of minority groups in the fields of ecology and evolution, and STEM subjects more widely.     

Intersectionality and trauma analysis in bioarchaeology

Intersectionality, the theory named by Kimberlé Crenshaw, outlines how multiple elements of an individual's social identity overlap to create and preserve societal inequalities and discrimination. Recently bioarchaeology's engagement with intersectionality has become increasingly explicit, as the field recognizes the lived experience of multiple axes of an individual's identity. Evidence of trauma can remain observable in an individual's skeleton for years, making it an ideal subject of study for intersectional analyses in bioarchaeology. Using contrasting case studies of two individuals who died in hospitals and were unclaimed after death, we explore the theoretical and methodological application of intersectionality to investigations of accidental and interpersonal trauma. Differences in identities and structural inequalities affect bone quality and health outcomes. As we demonstrate, a broken bone is the intersecting result of biological, histomorphological, sociocultural, and behavioral factors. This approach allows for a better acknowledgement of the inherent complexity of past lives, elevating and amplifying previously silenced voices. In this way, intersectionality in bioarchaeology demands social justice.     

Dynamics underlying hydroxylation selectivity of cytochrome P450cam

Structural heterogeneity and the dynamics of the complexes of enzymes with substrates can determine the selectivity of catalysis; however, fully characterizing how remains challenging as heterogeneity and dynamics can vary at the spatial level of an amino acid residue and involve rapid timescales. We demonstrate the nascent approach of site-specific two-dimensional infrared (IR) spectroscopy to investigate the archetypical cytochrome P450, P450cam, to better delineate the mechanism of the lower regioselectivity of hydroxylation of the substrate norcamphor in comparison to the native substrate camphor. Specific locations are targeted throughout the enzyme by selectively introducing cyano groups that have frequencies in a spectrally isolated region of the protein IR spectrum as local vibrational probes. Linear and two-dimensional IR spectroscopy were applied to measure the heterogeneity and dynamics at each probe and investigate how they differentiate camphor and norcamphor recognition. The IR data indicate that the norcamphor complex does not fully induce a large-scale conformational change to a closed state of the enzyme adopted in the camphor complex. Additionally, a probe directed at the bound substrate experiences rapidly interconverting states in the norcamphor complex that explain the hydroxylation product distribution. Altogether, the study reveals large- and small-scale structural heterogeneity and dynamics that could contribute to selectivity of a cytochrome P450 and illustrates the approach of site-selective IR spectroscopy to elucidate protein dynamics.