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471.
Enda J. Cummins Shane F. Colgan Patrick M. Grace D. John Fry Kevin P. McDonnell Shane M. Ward 《人类与生态风险评估》2002,8(5):1177-1192
The identification of meat and bone meal (MBM) as a significant factor in the spread of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has resulted in the introduction of restrictions on the use and movement of MBM and tallow. This has led to a requirement for alternative uses for these products. This paper reports on a risk assessment performed on the use of tallow as a fuel oil extender in diesel engines. With up to 4000 tonnes of tallow being produced each year in Ireland, combustion with energy recovery represents a viable, cost-efficient utilization route. A stochastic (Latin Hypercube sampling) simulation model was developed to assess the infectiv-ity risk to humans associated with potential airborne exposure to the combustion products when using tallow as a combustion fuel in diesel engines. The model simulates the potential infectivity pathways that tallow follows, including its production from animals with potentially subclinical BSE and processing the tallow with segregation and heat treatments. The model uses probability distributions for the most important input parameters. The assessment takes into account a number of epidemiological parameters that include tissue infectivity, species barrier, disease incidence, and heat inactivation. Two scenarios, reflecting the infectivity risk in different animal tissues defined by the European Commissions Scientific Steering Committee (SSC), were performed. It is seen from the model results that the risk of a human contracting variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) from potential airborne exposure to BSE, resulting from the combustion of tallow, is extremely small even when model uncertainty is taken into account (mean individual risk values ranging from 10-11.43 to 10-7.23 per year/person). The risks are a number of orders of magnitude less than the sporadic annual incidence level of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease 9CJD) in Europe (approximately 10-6) 相似文献
472.
P J McDonnell 《The Western journal of medicine》1992,157(4):449-450