Uncertainty in environmentally conscious decision making: beer or wine?

Purpose

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is being used increasingly in decision support situations. In actual cases, the sources of uncertainty are easily hidden in the complexity. Methods for taking uncertainty into account are recommended by LCA guidelines, but actual application remains rare. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the sources of uncertainty in a practical simple selection case wherein a customer makes a decision between beer and wine in a restaurant, considering the selected criteria and the given information. The uncertainty in LCA results is connected to the broader scope of decision analysis.

Methods

Life cycle inventories were collected for beer and wine production from existing literature. The functional unit was chosen to be one serving of alcohol: beer or wine. For illustrative purposes, only the global warming potential indicator was included in the LCA through carbon footprint (CF). Probabilistic uncertainty analysis was applied to the CF system using Monte Carlo simulation. Water footprint was also roughly considered. In addition, three non-environmental indicators were included in the decision: weight control, price, and taste. The comparison between the two products was constructed as a multiple-criteria decision analytical problem.

Results and discussion

The results indicated that beer had, on average, a higher CF value than wine did. However, the difference was not significant, and within the uncertainty range, also the opposite conclusion was possible. The ratio of wine to beer CF was dominated by the uncertainty in the N₂O emissions of wine production. When all of the decision criteria were included, the level of uncertainty prevented robust overall conclusions about preference for beer or wine. However, depending on the utility differences assigned to subjective indicators, there existed also cases wherein decisions could be made at a 10?% risk level regardless of high overall uncertainty.

Conclusions

In many cases, the uncertainties of LCA are dwarfed by the overall uncertainty of the decision situation. However, as shown by our example, in many cases, reasonable decisions can be made in spite of high uncertainties. The uncertainties of single LCA indicators should be considered in relation to the decision-making problem, which depends on the uncertainty of LCA indicators but also significantly on the weighting of the indicators and the related uncertainty. Successful decision making depends on both the magnitude of uncertainty and the differences in expected utility value between alternatives. More attention should be paid to uncertainty analysis considering the weighting factors.     

The relationship between vegetation density and its protective value depends on the densities and traits of prey and predators

Densities of submerged vegetation and those of associated animals tend to co‐vary. This relationship is often attributed to the positive correlation between the density of vegetation and its protective value against predators. However, two counteracting basic elements underlying this paradigm limit its generality. That is, increasing vegetation density should result in decreased predator–prey encounters, whilst at the same time predator–prey encounters should increase as animal densities increase. These two mechanisms should thus counteract each other when the densities of vegetation and associated animals, including both prey and predators, co‐vary. Experimental designs that expose fixed densities of prey and predators to varying densities of vegetation assess only the former mechanism and may thus not properly evaluate the protective value of vegetation in such conditions. By contrast, designs that mimic the naturally co‐varying organism densities test both mechanisms and thus their counteractive impacts on predator–prey encounters. We compared the outcomes of the two alternative designs and carried out additional experiments to explain the putative discrepancy. Increasing vegetation density (mimics of Potamogeton pectinatus) enhanced prey (Daphnia magna) survival only when fixed densities of prey and predators (Perca fluviatilis or Rutilus rutilus) were used. When the animal densities were allowed to co‐vary with vegetation density, vegetation had no impact on prey survival. Instead, prey survival was determined by the aggregate density of prey and predators, shaped by the species‐specific traits of the latter. Thus, the impact of the increased animal densities overrode the impact of the increased vegetation density on predator–prey encounters. It may be insufficient to attribute the co‐variation of vegetation, prey and predator densities simply to the association between vegetation density and its protective value. Increased food resources and reduced competition within vegetation may promote prey and thereby also predator abundance to a greater extent than previously thought.     

Toll-like receptor 9 ligands enhance mesenchymal stem cell invasion and expression of matrix metalloprotease-13

Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) are multipotent cells that are found in the bone marrow. Inflammation and tissue damage mobilize MSCs and induce their migration towards the damaged site through mechanisms that are not well defined. Toll-like receptor-9 (TLR9) is a cellular receptor for microbial and vertebrate DNA. Stimulation of TLR9 induces inflammatory and invasive responses in TLR9-expressing cells. We studied here the expression of TLR9 in human MSCs and the effects of synthetic TLR9-agonists on their invasion. Constitutive expression of TLR9 was detected in human MSCs but the expression was suppressed when MSCs were induced to differentiate into osteoblasts. Using standard invasion assays and a novel organotypic culture model based on human myoma tissue, we discovered that stimulation with the TLR9 agonistic, CpG oligonucleotides increased the invasion capacity of undifferentiated MSCs. Simultaneously, an increase in MMP-13 synthesis and activity was detected in the CpG-activated MSCs. Addition of anti-MMP-13 antibody significantly diminished the CpG-induced hMSC invasion. We conclude that treatment with TLR9-ligands increases MSC invasiveness, and this process is at least partially MMP-13-mediated.     

Sedation at Sea of Entangled North Atlantic Right Whales (Eubalaena glacialis) to Enhance Disentanglement

Background

The objective of this study was to enhance removal of fishing gear from right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) at sea that evade disentanglement boat approaches. Titrated intra muscular injections to achieve sedation were undertaken on two free swimming right whales.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Following initial trials with beached whales, a sedation protocol was developed for right whales. Mass was estimated from sighting and necropsy data from comparable right whales. Midazolam (0.01 to 0.025 mg/kg) was first given alone or with meperidine (0.17 to 0.25 mg/kg) either once or four times over two hours to whale #1102 by cantilevered pole syringe. In the last attempt on whale #1102 there appeared to be a mild effect in 20–30 minutes, with duration of less than 2 hours that included exhalation before the blowhole fully cleared the water. Boat avoidance, used as a measure of sedation depth, was not reduced. A second severely entangled animal in 2009, whale #3311, received midazolam (0.03 mg/kg) followed by butorphanol (0.03 mg/kg) an hour later, delivered ballistically. Two months later it was then given midazolam (0.07 mg/kg) and butorphanol (0.07 mg/kg) simultaneously. The next day both drugs at 0.1 mg/kg were given as a mixture in two darts 10 minutes apart. The first attempt on whale #3311 showed increased swimming speed and boat avoidance was observed after a further 20 minutes. The second attempt on whale #3311 showed respiration increasing mildly in frequency and decreasing in strength. The third attempt on whale #3311 gave a statistically significant increase in respiratory frequency an hour after injection, with increased swimming speed and marked reduction of boat evasion that enabled decisive cuts to entangling gear.

Conclusions/Significance

We conclude that butorphanol and midazolam delivered ballistically in appropriate dosages and combinations may have merit in future refractory free swimming entangled right whale cases until other entanglement solutions are developed.     

Reactivation of Latent Tuberculosis in Cynomolgus Macaques Infected with SIV Is Associated with Early Peripheral T Cell Depletion and Not Virus Load

HIV-infected individuals with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection are at significantly greater risk of reactivation tuberculosis (TB) than HIV-negative individuals with latent TB, even while CD4 T cell numbers are well preserved. Factors underlying high rates of reactivation are poorly understood and investigative tools are limited. We used cynomolgus macaques with latent TB co-infected with SIVmac251 to develop the first animal model of reactivated TB in HIV-infected humans to better explore these factors. All latent animals developed reactivated TB following SIV infection, with a variable time to reactivation (up to 11 months post-SIV). Reactivation was independent of virus load but correlated with depletion of peripheral T cells during acute SIV infection. Animals experiencing reactivation early after SIV infection (<17 weeks) had fewer CD4 T cells in the periphery and airways than animals reactivating in later phases of SIV infection. Co-infected animals had fewer T cells in involved lungs than SIV-negative animals with active TB despite similar T cell numbers in draining lymph nodes. Granulomas from these animals demonstrated histopathologic characteristics consistent with a chronically active disease process. These results suggest initial T cell depletion may strongly influence outcomes of HIV-Mtb co-infection.     

Effects of dietary supplementation with sea buckthorn (Hippophaë rhamnoides) seed and pulp oils on atopic dermatitis

A placebo-controlled, double-blind study was conducted to investigate the effects of seed and pulp oils of sea buckthorn (Hipphophae rhamnoides) on atopic dermatitis. Linoleic (34%), alpha-linolenic (25%), and oleic (19%) acids were the major fatty acids in the seed oil, whereas palmitic (33%), oleic (26%), and palmitoleic (25%) acids were the major fatty acids in the pulp oil. The study group included 49 atopic dermatitis patients who took 5 g (10 capsules) of seed oil, pulp oil, or paraffin oil daily for 4 months. During follow-up dermatitis improved significantly in the pulp oil (P < 0.01) and paraffin oil (P < 0.001) groups, but improvement in the seed oil group was not significant (P = 0.11). Supplementation of seed oil increased the proportion of alpha-linolenic acid in plasma neutral lipids (P < 0.01), and increases of linoleic, alpha-linolenic, and eicosapentaenoic acids in plasma phospholipids were close to significant (0.05 < P < 0.1). Pulp oil treatment increased the proportion of palmitoleic acid (P < 0.05) and lowered the percentage of pentadecanoic acid (P < 0.01) in both plasma phospholipids and neutral lipids. In the seed oil group, after 1 month of supplementation, positive correlations were found between symptom improvement and the increase in proportions of alpha-linolenic acid in plasma phospholipids (Rs = 0.84; P = 0.001) and neutral lipids (Rs = 0.68; P = 0.02). No changes in the levels of triacylglycerols, serum total, or specific immunoglobulin E were detected. In the pulp oil group, a significant (P < 0.05) increase in the level of high density lipoprotein cholesterol, from 1.38 to 1.53 mmol/L was observed.     

Cloning and functional expression of a novel GDP-6-deoxy-D-talose synthetase from Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans

Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans is a Gram-negative coccobacillus that can cause various forms of severe periodontitis and other nonoral infections in human patients. The serotype a-specific polysaccharide antigen of A. actinomycetemcomitans contains solely 6-deoxy-D-talose and its O-2 acetylated modification. This polysaccharide is synthesized from the donor GDP-6-deoxy-D-talose with the relevant talosylation enzyme(s). In the synthesis of GDP-6- deoxy-D-talose, GDP-D-mannose is first converted by GDP-mannose-4,6-dehydratase (GMD) to GDP-4-keto-6-deoxy-D-mannose and then reduced to GDP-6-deoxy-D-talose by GDP-6-deoxy-D-talose synthetase (GTS). In this study, we cloned and overexpressed in Escherichia coli the A. actinomycetemcomitans GTS enzyme responsible for the synthesis of GDP-6-deoxy-D-talose. The recombinant A. actinomycetemcomitans GTS enzyme expressed in E. coli converted the GDP-4-keto-6-deoxy-intermediate to a novel GDP-deoxyhexose. The synthesized GDP-deoxyhexose was shown to be GDP-6-deoxy-D-talose by HPLC, MALDI-TOF MS, and NMR spectroscopy. The functional expression of gts provides another enzymatically defined pathway for the synthesis of GDP-deoxyhexoses, which can be used as donors for the corresponding glycosyltransferases.