Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola

As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence data are used to estimate these parameters and guide policy. Some widely used modelling practices lead to potentially large errors in parameter estimates and, consequently, errors in model-based forecasts. Even more worryingly, in such situations, confidence in parameter estimates and forecasts can itself be far overestimated, leading to the potential for large errors that mask their own presence. Fortunately, straightforward and computationally inexpensive alternatives exist that avoid these problems. Here, we first use a simulation study to demonstrate potential pitfalls of the standard practice of fitting deterministic models to cumulative incidence data. Next, we demonstrate an alternative based on stochastic models fit to raw data from an early phase of 2014 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak. We show not only that bias is thereby reduced, but that uncertainty in estimates and forecasts is better quantified and that, critically, lack of model fit is more readily diagnosed. We conclude with a short list of principles to guide the modelling response to future infectious disease outbreaks.     

Influenza A Virus on Oceanic Islands: Host and Viral Diversity in Seabirds in the Western Indian Ocean

Ducks and seabirds are natural hosts for influenza A viruses (IAV). On oceanic islands, the ecology of IAV could be affected by the relative diversity, abundance and density of seabirds and ducks. Seabirds are the most abundant and widespread avifauna in the Western Indian Ocean and, in this region, oceanic islands represent major breeding sites for a large diversity of potential IAV host species. Based on serological assays, we assessed the host range of IAV and the virus subtype diversity in terns of the islands of the Western Indian Ocean. We further investigated the spatial variation in virus transmission patterns between islands and identified the origin of circulating viruses using a molecular approach. Our findings indicate that terns represent a major host for IAV on oceanic islands, not only for seabird-related virus subtypes such as H16, but also for those commonly isolated in wild and domestic ducks (H3, H6, H9, H12 subtypes). We also identified strong species-associated variation in virus exposure that may be associated to differences in the ecology and behaviour of terns. We discuss the role of tern migrations in the spread of viruses to and between oceanic islands, in particular for the H2 and H9 IAV subtypes.     

Orbital and maxillofacial computer aided surgery: patient-specific finite element models to predict surgical outcomes

This paper addresses an important issue raised for the clinical relevance of Computer-Assisted Surgical applications, namely the methodology used to automatically build patient-specific finite element (FE) models of anatomical structures. From this perspective, a method is proposed, based on a technique called the mesh-matching method, followed by a process that corrects mesh irregularities. The mesh-matching algorithm generates patient-specific volume meshes from an existing generic model. The mesh regularization process is based on the Jacobian matrix transform related to the FE reference element and the current element.This method for generating patient-specific FE models is first applied to computer-assisted maxillofacial surgery, and more precisely, to the FE elastic modelling of patient facial soft tissues. For each patient, the planned bone osteotomies (mandible, maxilla, chin) are used as boundary conditions to deform the FE face model, in order to predict the aesthetic outcome of the surgery. Seven FE patient-specific models were successfully generated by our method. For one patient, the prediction of the FE model is qualitatively compared with the patient's post-operative appearance, measured from a computer tomography scan. Then, our methodology is applied to computer-assisted orbital surgery. It is, therefore, evaluated for the generation of 11 patient-specific FE poroelastic models of the orbital soft tissues. These models are used to predict the consequences of the surgical decompression of the orbit. More precisely, an average law is extrapolated from the simulations carried out for each patient model. This law links the size of the osteotomy (i.e. the surgical gesture) and the backward displacement of the eyeball (the consequence of the surgical gesture).     

Photodynamics of excitation energy transfer in self-assembled dyads. Evidence for back transfer.

Three self-assembled photonic dyads comprising a zinc porphyrin donor and a free base acceptor have been studied by time-resolved fluorescence spectroscopy. The driving force of the assembly is the site selective binding of an imidazole connected to a free base porphyrin. Three spacers have been incorporated between the imidazole connector and the free base porphyrin, providing three different distances separating the donor and the acceptor. The high efficiencies and the rates of energy transfer in the set of dyads is consistent with the Forster energy transfer mechanism. Evidence for Forster back transfer has been obtained, and its efficiency and rate have been quantitatively evaluated for the first time.     

Co-culture of human fibroblasts,smooth muscle and endothelial cells promotes osteopontin induction in hypoxia

Arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) are the preferred vascular access for haemodialysis of patients suffering from end-stage renal disease, a worldwide public health problem. However, they are prone to a high rate of failure due to neointimal hyperplasia and stenosis. This study aimed to determine if osteopontin (OPN) was induced in hypoxia and if OPN could be responsible for driving AVF failure. Identification of new factors that participate in remodelling of AVFs is a challenge. Three cell lines representing the cells of the three layers of the walls of arteries and veins, fibroblasts, smooth muscle cells and endothelial cells, were tested in mono- and co-culture in vitro for OPN expression and secretion in normoxia compared to hypoxia after silencing the hypoxia-inducible factors (HIF-1α, HIF-2α and HIF-1/2α) with siRNA or after treatment with an inhibitor of NF-kB. None of the cells in mono-culture showed OPN induction in hypoxia, whereas cells in co-culture secreted OPN in hypoxia. The changes in oxygenation that occur during AVF maturation up-regulate secretion of OPN through cell-cell interactions between the different cell layers that form AVF, and in turn, these promote endothelial cell proliferation and could participate in neointimal hyperplasia.     

Isolation and characterization of 13 polymorphic nuclear microsatellite primers for the widespread Indo-Pacific three-spot damselfish, Dascyllus trimaculatus, and closely related D. auripinnis

A set of 13 simple sequence repeat markers was developed from D. trimaculatus genomic DNA, tested for D. auripinnis and characterized using 40 individuals per species. All the loci were polymorphic with a number of alleles ranging from three to 30. Observed heterozygosities varied from 0.23 to 0.89 for D. trimaculatus and from 0.11 to 0.85 for D. auripinnis. Early results show that these will be powerful markers for the study of ecological and evolutionary mechanism in this coral reef fish species complex.     

Role of manganese accumulation in increased brain glutamine of the cirrhotic rat

Cirrhosis promotes increases of both manganese and glutamine in brain. Manganese is a modulator and glutamine is the product of glutamine synthetase. This work studies the relationship between manganese and glutamine synthetase in a model of cirrhosis in the rat. We administered manganese (1 g/L) in the drinking water of sham-operated and bile-duct obstructed rats. We evaluated the manganese and glutamine accumulation and the glutamine synthetase activity in frontal cortex, striatum, and pallidum after 2, 4, and 6 weeks of biliary obstruction or sham surgery. Cirrhotic rats receiving manganese increased their brain content of metal about 400%–600% after 4 weeks of treatment (P < .05) and also remarkably accumulated glutamine through time in the three regions studied (P < .05 at week 6). Interestingly, bile-duct obstructed rats treated with manganese showed no effect on glutamine synthetase activity. Results from this study suggest that manganese induces increases of brain glutamine independently of its synthesis.     

The effect of diphenylhydantoin on the frequency of micronuclei in bone-marrow polychromatic erythrocytes of mice

Using the micronucleus test to evaluate the mutagenic effect of 5,5-diphenylhydantoin (DPH) on bone marrow polychromatic erythrocytes, male Balb-C mice were treated with the drug in single and multiple injection tests. A significant increase in the frequency of micronucleated polychromatic erythrocytes (MPE), P less than 0.05, was found when the mice received a single injection of DPH at doses of 0.5 and 1.0 mg/kg, and this frequency did not increase at higher doses. When mice were treated 3 times, at 24-h intervals, with 1.0 mg/kg of DPH, a significant increase in MPE was also observed (P less than 0.05) but this was lower than when they received a single injection of the same dose. A cytotoxic effect of NaOH, 0.1 N, which was used as solvent, was also observed either when alone or when DPH (1.0 mg/kg) was injected 3 times. This effect was comparable to the one produced by mitomycin C (MMC) at a dose of 0.5 mg/kg.