Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution

Species distribution modelling has been widely applied in order to assess the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Many methodological decisions, taken during the modelling process and forecasts, may, however, lead to a large variability in the assessment of future impacts. Using measures of species range change and turnover, the potential impacts of climate change on French stream fish species and assemblages were evaluated. Our main focus was to quantify the uncertainty in the projections of these impacts arising from four sources of uncertainty: initial datasets (Data), statistical methods [species distribution models (SDM)], general circulation models (GCM), and gas emission scenarios (GES). Several modalities of the aforementioned uncertainty sources were combined in an ensemble forecasting framework resulting in 8400 different projections. The variance explained by each source was then extracted from this whole ensemble of projections. Overall, SDM contributed to the largest variation in projections, followed by GCM, whose contribution increased over time equalling almost the proportion of variance explained by SDM in 2080. Data and GES had little influence on the variability in projections. Future projections of range change were more consistent for species with a large geographical extent (i.e., distribution along latitudinal or stream gradients) or with restricted environmental requirements (i.e., small thermal or elevation ranges). Variability in projections of turnover was spatially structured at the scale of France, indicating that certain particular geographical areas should be considered with care when projecting the potential impacts of climate change. The results of this study, therefore, emphasized that particular attention should be paid to the use of predictions ensembles resulting from the application of several statistical methods and climate models. Moreover, forecasted impacts of climate change should always be provided with an assessment of their uncertainty, so that management and conservation decisions can be taken in the full knowledge of their reliability.     

Seroprevalence and risk factors of Q fever in goats on commercial dairy goat farms in the Netherlands, 2009-2010

Background

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have had devastating effects on poultry industries worldwide, and there is concern about the potential for HPAI outbreaks in the poultry industry in Great Britain (GB). Critical to the potential for HPAI to spread between poultry premises are the connections made between farms by movements related to human activity. Movement records of catching teams and slaughterhouse vehicles were obtained from a large catching company, and these data were used in a simulation model of HPAI spread between farms serviced by the catching company, and surrounding (geographic) areas. The spread of HPAI through real-time movements was modelled, with the addition of spread via company personnel and local transmission.

Results

The model predicted that although large outbreaks are rare, they may occur, with long distances between infected premises. Final outbreak size was most sensitive to the probability of spread via slaughterhouse-linked movements whereas the probability of onward spread beyond an index premises was most sensitive to the frequency of company personnel movements.

Conclusions

Results obtained from this study show that, whilst there is the possibility that HPAI virus will jump from one cluster of farms to another, movements made by catching teams connected fewer poultry premises in an outbreak situation than slaughterhouses and company personnel. The potential connection of a large number of infected farms, however, highlights the importance of retaining up-to-date data on poultry premises so that control measures can be effectively prioritised in an outbreak situation.     

Checklist of Commelinaceae of Equatorial Guinea (Annobón,Bioko and Río Muni)

A checklist of Commelinaceae of Equatorial Guinea, comprising 46 taxa in 12 genera, is presented. The best represented genus is Palisota, with 11 species. Bibliographical references for Commelinaceae from Equatorial Guinea have been gathered and checked. Eleven species of Commelinaceae are recorded for the first time in the country. © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 159 , 106–122.     

Compositional similarity among urban floras within and across continents: biogeographical consequences of human-mediated biotic interchange

Anthropogenic activities have weakened biogeographical barriers to dispersal resulting in the global spread and establishment of an increasing number of non‐native species. We examine the broad‐scale consequences of this phenomenon based on an analysis of compositional similarity across urban floras in the northeastern United States and Europe. We test the prediction that homogenization of species composition is uniquely defined within vs. between continents based on the time and place of origin of non‐native species. In this case, for archaeophytes and neophytes in Europe (introduced before and after ad 1500, respectively) and non‐native species originating from within and outside the United States. More species in urban floras were shared within than between continents. Within Europe, archaeophytes shared more species across urban floras compared with neophytes; strong associations were not observed for non‐native species across US urban floras. Between the two continents, non‐native species in the United States that originated from outside the United States shared species primarily with archaeophytes but also with European natives and neophytes. These results suggest that the direction of biotic interchange was unidirectional with species moving primarily from Europe to the United States with archaeophytes playing a primary and non‐native species originating from outside the two continents a secondary role as a homogenizing source. Archaeophytes, based on combination of biogeographical, evolutionary, and ecological factors in association with a long history of anthropogenic influence, appear to have played a prominent role in the continental and intercontinental homogenization of species composition. This suggests that the uniform homogenization of the Earth's biota is not imminent and is presently directed by a combination of biogeographically defined anthropogenic and historical factors.     

Carbon monoxide prevents hepatic mitochondrial membrane permeabilization

Background  

Low concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO) protect hepatocytes against apoptosis and confers cytoprotection in several models of liver. Mitochondria are key organelles in cell death control via their membrane permeabilization and the release of pro-apoptotic factors.     

Chromosome counts in the genus Festuca section Eskia (Poaceae) in the Iberian Peninsula

Chromosome numbers of taxa of Festuca L. section Eskia Willk. in the Iberian Peninsula are given. The levels of ploidy for five taxa are confirmed. Idiograms and karyotypic formulae of the five taxa are presented for the first time. Two levels of ploidy occur in this section: diploid and tetraploid. One taxon, Festuca elegans ssp. merinoi is tetraploid and two other taxa have diploid and tetraploid populations. The remaining two taxa are solely diploid.  © 2004 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society , 2004, 146 , 331–337.