Serendipity and Vision: Two Methods for Discovery Comments on Nickles

Thomas Nickles challenges my thesis that innovative discoveries can be based on deliberately chosen problems and research strategies. He suggests that all significant innovation can be seen as such only in retrospect and that its generation must be serendipitous. Here I argue in response that significant innovations can and do often arise from self conscious critical appraisal of orthodox practice combined with regulated though speculative abductive argumentation to alternative explanatory schemata. Orthodox practice is not based upon monolithic systems of belief about the subject of inquiry. Rather major domains of scientific practice often are approached from different conceptualizations that provide grounds for critical dialectic and consilient empirical information. Abductive arguments that meet appropriate conditions of likelihood, probability and analogy are an important means of justifying allocating resources to innovative practices that have yet to produce products that can rival those of established orthodoxy.     

Habitat preference in the critically endangered yellow‐tailed woolly monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda) at La Esperanza,Peru

Habitat loss is one of the main threats to wildlife. Therefore, knowledge of habitat use and preference is essential for the design of conservation strategies and identification of priority sites for the protection of endangered species. The yellow‐tailed woolly monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda Humboldt, 1812), categorized as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List, is endemic to montane forests in northern Peru where its habitat is greatly threatened. We assessed how habitat use and preference in L. flavicauda are linked to forest structure and composition. The study took place near La Esperanza, in the Amazonas region, Peru. Our objective was to identify characteristics of habitat most utilized by L. flavicauda to provide information that will be useful for the selection of priority sites for conservation measures. Using presence records collected from May 2013 to February 2014 for one group of L. flavicauda, we classified the study site into three different use zones: low‐use, medium‐use, and high‐use. We assessed forest structure and composition for all use zones using 0.1 ha Gentry vegetation transects. Results show high levels of variation in plant species composition across the three use zones. Plants used as food resources had considerably greater density, dominance, and ecological importance in high‐use zones. High‐use zones presented similar structure to medium‐ and low‐use zones; thus it remains difficult to assess the influence of forest structure on habitat preference. We recommend focusing conservation efforts on areas with a similar floristic composition to the high‐use zones recorded in this study and suggest utilizing key alimentation species for reforestation efforts.     

Experimental infection of red dwarf honeybee,Apis florea,with Nosema ceranae

This research is the first record of the infection of Apis florea by Nosema ceranae, a newly identified pathogen of honeybee in Thailand which was initially isolated from A. florea workers. Each Nosema free-bee was fed 2 μl of 50% (w/v) sucrose solution containing 0, 10,000 20,000 or 40,000 Nosema spores/bee. The survival rates of treated bees were significantly lower compared to control bees. Infectivity was not statistically different among the three spore concentrations, whereas no infection was found in control bees. Protein content of control bee hypopharyngeal glands 14 days post inoculation (p.i) was significantly higher (21.47 ± 0.17 mg/bee) compared to all treatments. The infection ratio of bees treated with 40,000 spores/bee increased with time after inoculation. These results suggest that N. ceranae has a significant negative effect on honeybee hypopharyngeal gland protein production and contributes to their shortened life span.     

An “orientation sphere” visualization for examining animal head movements

1. Animal behavior is elicited, in part, in response to external conditions, but understanding how animals perceive the environment and make the decisions that bring about these behavioral responses is challenging.
2. Animal heads often move during specific behaviors and, additionally, typically have sensory systems (notably vision, smell, and hearing) sampling in defined arcs (normally to the front of their heads). As such, head‐mounted electronic sensors consisting of accelerometers and magnetometers, which can be used to determine the movement and directionality of animal heads (where head “movement” is defined here as changes in heading [azimuth] and/or pitch [elevation angle]), can potentially provide information both on behaviors in general and also clarify which parts of the environment the animals might be prioritizing (“environmental framing”).
3. We propose a new approach to visualize the data of such head‐mounted tags that combines the instantaneous outputs of head heading and pitch in a single intuitive spherical plot. This sphere has magnetic heading denoted by “longitude” position and head pitch by “latitude” on this “orientation sphere” (O‐sphere).
4. We construct the O‐sphere for the head rotations of a number of vertebrates with contrasting body shape and ecology (oryx, sheep, tortoises, and turtles), illustrating various behaviors, including foraging, walking, and environmental scanning. We also propose correcting head orientations for body orientations to highlight specific heading‐independent head rotation, and propose the derivation of O‐sphere‐metrics, such as angular speed across the sphere. This should help identify the functions of various head behaviors.
5. Visualizations of the O‐sphere provide an intuitive representation of animal behavior manifest via head orientation and rotation. This has ramifications for quantifying and understanding behaviors ranging from navigation through vigilance to feeding and, when used in tandem with body movement, should provide an important link between perception of the environment and response to it in free‐ranging animals.

     

Predator detection and avoidance by starlings under differing scenarios of predation risk

Practically all animals must find food while avoiding predators.An individual's perception of predation risk may depend on manyfactors, such as distance to refuge and group size, but it isunclear whether individuals respond to different factors ina similar manner. We tested whether flocks of foraging starlingsresponded in the same way to an increased perception of predationrisk by assessing three factors: (1) neighbor distances, (2)habitat obstruction, and (3) recent exposure to a predator.We found that in all three scenarios of increased risk, starlingsreduced their interscan intervals (food-searching bouts), whichincreased the frequency of their vigilance periods. We thenexamined how one of these factors, habitat obstruction, affectedescape speed by simulating an attack with a model predator.Starlings were slower to respond in visually obstructed habitats(long grass swards) and slower when they had their head downin obstructed habitats than when they had their head down inopen habitats. In addition, reaction times were quicker whenstarlings could employ their peripheral fields of vision. Ourresults demonstrate that different sources of increased riskcan generate similar behavioral responses within a species.The degree of visibility in the physical and social environmentaffects both the actual and perceived risk of predation.     

Clinical effectiveness of biologics in clinical practice

TNF inhibitors are currently considered both effective and cost-effective in patients with active rheumatoid arthritis (RA), particularly in patients who have not responded fully to methotrexate. There is substantial doubt about the cost-effectiveness of TNF inhibitors as initial treatment for active RA. New data from the National Data Bank for Rheumatic Diseases now question the current consensus in methotrexate failures. The data suggest that in routine clinical practice TNF inhibitors provide only modest incremental benefits over best conventional therapy. If confirmed, these observational studies suggest that the economic argument underpinning the widespread use of TNF inhibitors in established RA is unsustainable.