Evaluating the effects of climate change on tree species abundance and distribution in the Italian peninsula

Question: What is the effect of climate change on tree species abundance and distribution in the Italian peninsula? Location: Italian peninsula. Methods: Regression tree analysis, Random Forest, generalized additive model and geostatistical methods were compared to identify the best model for quantifying the effect of climate change on tree species distribution and abundance. Future potential species distribution, richness, local colonization, local extinction and species turnover were modelled according to two scenarios (A2 and B1) for 2050 and 2080. Results: Robust Random Forest proved to be the best statistical model to predict the potential distribution of tree species abundance. Climate change could lead to a shift in tree species distribution towards higher altitudes and a reduction of forest cover. Pinus sylvestris and Tilia cordata may be considered at risk of local extinction, while the other species could find potential suitable areas at the cost of a rearrangement of forest community composition and increasing competition. Conclusions: Geographical and topographical regional characteristics can have a noticeable influence on the impact of predicted climate change on forest ecosystems within the Mediterranean basin. It would be highly beneficial to create a standardized and harmonized European forest inventory in order to evaluate, at high resolution, the effect of climate change on forest ecosystems, identify regional differences and develop specific adaptive management strategies and plans.     

Tri-trophic interactions affect density dependence of seed fate in a tropical forest palm

Natural enemies, especially host-specific enemies, are hypothesised to facilitate the coexistence of plant species by disproportionately inflicting more damage at increasing host abundance. However, few studies have assessed such Janzen-Connell mechanisms on a scale relevant for coexistence and no study has evaluated potential top-down influences on the specialized pests. We quantified seed predation by specialist invertebrates and generalist vertebrates, as well as larval predation on these invertebrates, for the Neotropical palm Attalea butyracea across ten 4-ha plots spanning 20-fold variation in palm density. As palm density increased, seed attack by bruchid beetles increased, whereas seed predation by rodents held constant. But because rodent predation on bruchid larvae increased disproportionately with increasing palm density, bruchid emergence rates and total seed predation by rodents and bruchids combined were both density-independent. Our results demonstrate that top-down effects can limit the potential of host-specific insects to induce negative-density dependence in plant populations.     

What's wrong with correlative experiments?

Here, we make a case for multivariate measurements in cell biology with minimal perturbation. We discuss how correlative data can identify cause-effect relationships in cellular pathways with potentially greater accuracy than conventional perturbation studies.     

Global macroecology of bird assemblages in urbanized and semi‐natural ecosystems

Aim Despite the increasing pace of urbanization, little is known about how this process affects biodiversity globally. We investigate macroecological patterns of bird assemblages in urbanized areas relative to semi‐natural ecosystems. Location World‐wide. Methods We use a database of quantitative bird surveys to compare key assemblage structure parameters for plots in urbanized and semi‐natural ecosystems controlling for spatial autocorrelation and survey methodology. We use the term ‘urbanized’ instead of ‘urban’ ecosystems as many of the plots were not located in the centre of towns but in remnant habitat patches within conurbations. Results Some macroecological relationships were conserved in urbanized landscapes. Species–area, species–abundance and species–biomass relationships did not differ significantly between urbanized and non‐urbanized environments. However, there were differences in the relationships between productivity and assemblage structure. In forests, species richness increased with productivity; in both forests and open habitats, the evenness of species abundances declined as productivity increased. Among urbanized plots, instead, both species richness and the evenness of species abundances were independent of variation in productivity. Main conclusions Remnant habitats within urbanized areas are subject to many ecological alterations, yet key macroecological patterns differ remarkably little in urbanized versus non‐urbanized plots. Our results support the need for increased conservation activities in urbanized landscapes, particularly given the additional benefits of local experiences of biodiversity for the human population. With increasing urbanization world‐wide, broad‐scale efforts are needed to understand and manage the effects of this driver of change on biodiversity.     

Constraints in the identification and interpretation of ozone as a significant predictor of effects on the supersensitive indicator Nicotiana tabacum Bel-W3 in biomonitoring studies

Biomonitoring by means of the supersensitive cultivar Nicotiana tabacum Bel-W3 is frequently used to obtain information on ozone effects on plants and estimates of ozone exposure. However, most of biomonitoring surveys do not account for other environmental variables (predictors in a statistical model) and their inherent multicollinearity with ozone. We tested the relative role of different predictors (fixed: time and site; random: ozone, temperature and humidity) on height growth and on the development of visible foliar symptoms of N. tabacum Bel-W3 plants. To do this, we investigated a relatively small area (256 km²), used a random design at every stage of the survey, controlled watering and protected plants from direct solar radiation and wind. QA/QC procedures were adopted at every stage of the investigation. Linear correlation shows that Leaf Injury Index (LII) and height increment (H.I.) positively related to ozone concentration, elevation and temperature, and negatively to relative humidity. All the predictors correlate to each other. However, relationships between response and ozone vary with the site and the monitoring week. The effect of the random factor “ozone” in combination with fixed factors “site” and “time” on the response variables was therefore formally investigated using the ANCOVA model. Besides ozone, the interactions “ozone × site” and “ozone × time” resulted always significant (0.001 < P < 0.05). While the factor “time” emphasize the inherent development of injury and growth through time, the interaction “ozone × site” pointed out the importance of local conditions. When watering, solar radiation, wind and plant characteristics were controlled, the remaining site-specific covariates of interest were temperature (T) and humidity (RH). When T and RH were accounted for by means of partial correlation analysis, no significant relationship was found between ozone and LII. On the other side, O₃ and RH resulted significant for both absolute and relative height increment. In short, LII seemed to be not solely dependent on ozone, T and RH, but showed to integrate their combined effect. On the other side, H.I. seemed to be favoured by high RH and T, and depressed by high ozone. Based on the above results, we recommend caution when handling bioindicator data: if the purpose is to infer ozone concentrations by leaf injury data, results may be affected by a serious bias, as the frequently reported correlations may be partly an artefact due to co-variation between predictors.     

Evaluating the influence of off-shore cage aquaculture on the benthic ecosystem in Alghero Bay (Sardinia,Italy) using AMBI and M-AMBI

The impact of an off-shore fish farm in Alghero Bay (northwest Sardinia, Italy) on the benthic ecosystem was investigated in 2007 and 2008. In addition to studying the chemical and physical characteristics of the area (i.e., currents and sediment analyses), some biological analyses were also performed. The AZTI's Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) and the multivariate AMBI (M-AMBI) were calculated, which are being used in assessing the ecological status of benthic communities within the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Clear impact gradients were detected according to both methods; they are related to farm production, prevailing currents, and characteristics of the area (i.e., water depth and distance to the cages). The site affected most was detected within 84 m from the cages; the area that no longer showed effects was over 907 m from the cages. The gradient is shown by decreasing AMBI values and percentage of opportunistic species and increasing richness, diversity, and the presence of sensitive species. This study highlights the importance of setting reference conditions for different areas when calculating M-AMBI. These reference conditions correspond to those in undisturbed sites in the opposite direction of the prevailing currents within the area.     

A study on the pretreatment of a sugarcane bagasse sample with dilute sulfuric acid

Experiments based on a 2³ central composite full factorial design were carried out in 200-ml stainless-steel containers to study the pretreatment, with dilute sulfuric acid, of a sugarcane bagasse sample obtained from a local sugar–alcohol mill. The independent variables selected for study were temperature, varied from 112.5°C to 157.5°C, residence time, varied from 5.0 to 35.0 min, and sulfuric acid concentration, varied from 0.0% to 3.0% (w/v). Bagasse loading of 15% (w/w) was used in all experiments. Statistical analysis of the experimental results showed that all three independent variables significantly influenced the response variables, namely the bagasse solubilization, efficiency of xylose recovery in the hemicellulosic hydrolysate, efficiency of cellulose enzymatic saccharification, and percentages of cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin in the pretreated solids. Temperature was the factor that influenced the response variables the most, followed by acid concentration and residence time, in that order. Although harsher pretreatment conditions promoted almost complete removal of the hemicellulosic fraction, the amount of xylose recovered in the hemicellulosic hydrolysate did not exceed 61.8% of the maximum theoretical value. Cellulose enzymatic saccharification was favored by more efficient removal of hemicellulose during the pretreatment. However, detoxification of the hemicellulosic hydrolysate was necessary for better bioconversion of the sugars to ethanol.     

The interplay between morphogens and tissue growth

Morphogens are conserved, secreted signalling molecules that regulate the size, shape and patterning of animal tissues and organs. Recent experimental evidence has emphasized the fundamental role of tissue growth in expanding the expression domains of morphogens and their target genes, in generating morphogen gradients and in modulating the response of cells to morphogens. Moreover, the classic view of how morphogens, particularly through their concentration gradient, regulate tissue size during development has been revisited recently. In this review, we discuss how morphogens and tissue growth affect each other, and we attempt to integrate genetic and molecular evidence from vertebrate and invertebrate model systems to put forward the idea that the interaction between growth and morphogens is a general feature of highly proliferative tissues.     

A new genus and new species of Philippine stick insects (Insecta: Phasmatodea) and phylogenetic considerations

Based on characters of both sexes, a new genus and species of the basal euphasmatodean lineage Aschiphasmatidae is described and figured from the Philippines. Dallaiphasma eximius gen. et sp. n. displays interesting features for the group, including: a cone-shaped vertex, which is notably raised above the pronotum; the tibial area apicalis represented by a depressed membranous posterior lateral region, and a strongly sclerotized central apical region; the euplantulae consisting of smooth-type attachment pads; the pretarsal claws pectination reduced to minute denticulations; and the well-differentiated boundary between the metanotum and the first abdominal tergum. The phylogenetic information content of the new findings is discussed. Furthermore, as a result of this study, the Aschiphasmatidae are newly recorded from Mindoro island, and now include five genera and six species of the Philippines.