Statistical analysis for the spatial validity of a model to forecast the daily number of forest fires

In earlier papers a qualitative and quantitative model was developed for predicting the number of forest fires occurring per day. This model permits the forecast at 00.00 hours Universal Time Convention (UTC) of any day (d), the number of forest fires per day for a range of several days (d tod+5) over a particular region. Input data are the number of forest fires in the region during two preceding days (d–2 andd–1) and the type of day (real and evaluated from radiosonde ford–2,d–1,d and predicted from meteorological medium-range forecasts, i.e. of European Centre, ford+1,d+2,d+3,d+4 andd+5. As this model requires data obtained by radiosonde, particularly temperatures and geopotentials at 850 and 700 hPa and dew points (or specific humidity) at 850 hPa, this study investigates the spatial validity of the model in relation to the distance from the radiosonde station (RS). The highest quality forecast is obtained for the region immediately surrounding the RS, and diminishes with increasing distance from it, this being due to the data obtained from the RS not being representative of the atmospheric column over the region. Hence, the derivation of the critical distance for a particular quality level of measurement. Conversely, fixed quality level implies a specific separation between RS and the region for the prediction, with a higher predictive quality implying a shorter distance.     

Biological basis for the management of ‘lugs negra’ (Sarcothalia crispata Gigartinales,Rhodophyta) in southern Chile

The present paper describes growth dynamics in a natural bed of the resource luga negra (Sarcothalia crispata) in Guapilinao, southern Chile (41°57 S, 73°31 W). This resource is currently harvested and exported as raw material for the production of carrageenan. Seasonal variation in biomass, frond size, density and phenology was determined by periodic sampling. Natural recruitment was evaluated on different substrata added to the field; at the same time, substrata were inoculated under greenhouse conditions. Results showed that luga negra has seasonal growth: biomass increased from a minimum in spring to a maximum in mid to late summer. On the other hand, density was minimal in winter (200 ind. m^–2) and increased to 2000 ind. m^–2 in late spring. Peak abundance of mature tetrasporic fronds occurred in late summer, whereas that of cystocarpic fronds occurred in winter. Recruitment began in summer and extended into winter. Survival on different substrata were compared. Gametophytes had better survival rates on clam shells and 5 mm rope while tetrasporophytes had the best survival rate on clam shells and secondarily on boulders.     

The biology of Butomus umbellatus in shallow waters with fluctuating water level

Butomus umbellatus L. is a plant species typical of littoral communities of river and stream shores. It can form continuous stands in shallow reservoirs with fluctuating water level. Their expansion is promoted by: (a) intensive vegetative reproduction of plants, (b) crowded sprouting from rhizome fragments on emerged pond bottom, (c) shallow water layer in the year following summer drainage. Expansion of B. umbellatus depends on ploidy level: two cytotypes were found in the Czech and Slovak Republics, differing in their reproductive ability. Seed production of triploids is strongly limited (they are self-incompatible within clones), while diploids can be fully fertile. Nevertheless, even in diploids, the efficiency of seed reproduction under natural conditions is low. Triploids spread by intensive vegetative reproduction, which is decisive for clonal growth of populations and their regeneration after scraping of bottom surface. During seasonal development, maximum of aboveground biomass is produced in early summer, while underground biomass increases till autumn. Growth of the plants is limited by cutting before maximum underground biomass is attained, or by duck grazing.     

Effects of eucalyptus afforestation on leaf litter dynamics and macroinvertebrate community structure of streams in Central Portugal

To test the hypothesis whether afforestation with Eucalyptus globulus affects litter dynamics in streams and the structure of macroinvertebrate aquatic communities, we compared streams flowing through eucalyptus and deciduous forests, paying attention to: (i) litterfall dynamics, (ii) accumulation of organic matter, (iii) processing rates of two dominant leaf species: eucalyptus and chestnut, and (iv) macroinvertebrate community structure. The amount of allochthonous inputs was similar in both vegetation types, but the seasonality of litter inputs differed between eucalyptus and natural deciduous forests. Eucalyptus forest streams accumulated more organic matter than deciduous forest streams. Decomposition of both eucalyptus and chestnut leaf litter was higher in streams flowing through deciduous forests. The eucalyptus forest soils were highly hydrophobic resulting in strong seasonal fluctuations in discharge. In autumn the communities of benthic macroinvertebrates of the two stream types were significantly different. Deciduous forest streams contained higher numbers of invertebrates and more taxa than eucalyptus forest streams. Mixed forest streams (streams flowing through eucalyptus forests but bordered by deciduous vegetation) were intermediate between the two other vegetation types in all studied characteristics (accumulation of benthic organic matter, density and diversity of aquatic invertebrates). These results suggest that monocultures of eucalyptus affect low order stream communities. However, the impact may be attenuated if riparian corridors of original vegetation are kept in plantation forestry.     

Indirect evidence of alteration in the expression of the rDNA genes in interspecific hybrids betweenDrosophila melanogaster andDrosophila simulans

Crosses betweenDrosophila melanogaster females andD. simulans males produce viable hybrid females, while males are lethal. These males are rescued if they carry theD. simulans Lhr gene. This paper reports that females of the wild-typeD. melanogaster population Staket do not produce viable hybrid males when crossed withD. simulans Lhr males, a phenomenon which we designate as the Staket phenotype. The agent responsible for this phenomenon was found to be the StaketX chromosome (X ^mel ,Stk). Analysis of the Staket phenotype showed that it is suppressed by extra copies ofD. melanogaster rDNA genes and that theX ^mel ,Stk chromosome manifests a weak bobbed phenotype inD. melanogaster X ^mel ,Stk/0 males. The numbers of functional rDNA genes inX ^mel ,Stk andX ^mel ,y w (control) chromosomes were found not to differ significantly. Thus a reduction in rDNA gene number cannot account for the weak bobbedX ^mel ,Stk phenotype let alone the Staket phenotype. The rRNA precursor molecules transcribed from theX ^mel ,Stk rDNA genes seem to be correctly processed in both intraspecific (melanogaster) and interspecific (melanogaster-simulans) conditions. It is therefore suggested that theX ^mel ,Stk rDNA genes are inefficiently transcribed in themelanogaster-simulans hybrids.     

Linkage disequilibrium analysis in Machado-Joseph disease patients of different ethnic origins

Machado-Joseph disease (MJD) is an autosomal dominant spinocerebellar degeneration originally described in families of Portuguese-Azorean ancestry. The hypothesis that its present world distribution could result from the spread of an original founder mutation has been raised. To test this possibility we have conducted a linkage disequilibrium study of markers segregating with the MJD1 locus in a total of 64 unrelated families of different geographical origins. Significant association was detected between the MJD1 locus and marker alleles at loci D14S280, D14S1050 and D14S81. All affected individuals, except one Chinese family, had allele 3 (237 bp) at D14S280. This finding is consistent with a founder effect in our MJD population. However, distinct haplotypes were observed in patients originating from the two Azorean islands showing the highest disease prevalence; therefore, the possible existence of more than one founder mutation can not be excluded with the markers currently available. Received: 27 February 1996 / Revised: 4 June 1996     

Geographic differences in the allele frequencies of the human Y-linked tetranucleotide polymorphism DYS19

We have studied the allele frequency distribution of the microsatellite locus DYS 19 in several populations with different geographical origins worldwide. Three new alleles were found. In addition, remarkable geographic and ethnic differences were observed in the allele frequency profiles and DNA marker (gene) diversity among populations and major ethnic groups. Amerindians showed an overwhelming predominance of the A allele, while in Caucasians the B allele was modal, and in Greater Asians and Africans allele C became predominant. Even within these geographic regions there were significant gradients, as exemplified by the decreasing frequency profile of the B allele from Great Britain over Germany to Slovakia. Thus, DYS 19 emerges as a useful tool for studying the structure and dynamics of human populations.     

Changes in extracellular levels of dopamine metabolites in somatosensory cortex after peripheral denervation

This study examined the effects of a nerve transection on monoamine release from primary somatosensory cortex. The technique of microdialysis was employed to sample extracellular levels of norepinephrine (NE), 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetic acid (DOPAC), 5-hydroxyindole-3-acetic acid (5-HIAA) and homovanillic acid (HVA) in the barrel field of freely moving rats following the surgical transection of the contralateral infraorbital nerve. Microdialysates obtained 3, 4, and 5 days after deafferentation were analyzed using high-performance liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection. We found a significant increase in the release of the dopamine metabolites, DOPAC and HVA from the deafferented cortex. Three days after deafferentation the release of DOPAC was three-fold higher in the deafferented than in the control animals, and remained about 100% higher in the next two days in this group of animals. The release of HVA showed a gradual increase following the deafferentation procedure, since a 92% larger value on day 3 increased to a 338% difference on day 5. On the other hand, the release rate of NE and the levels of the serotonin metabolite 5-HIAA were not significantly affected by the deafferentation procedure. These results are discussed in the context of the possible participation of dopamine in the reorganization of the deafferented somatosensory cortex.