Short-term Forecasting of the Prevalence of Trachoma: Expert Opinion,Statistical Regression,versus Transmission Models

BackgroundTrachoma programs rely on guidelines made in large part using expert opinion of what will happen with and without intervention. Large community-randomized trials offer an opportunity to actually compare forecasting methods in a masked fashion.MethodsThe Program for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma trials estimated longitudinal prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection from 24 communities treated annually with mass azithromycin. Given antibiotic coverage and biannual assessments from baseline through 30 months, forecasts of the prevalence of infection in each of the 24 communities at 36 months were made by three methods: the sum of 15 experts’ opinion, statistical regression of the square-root-transformed prevalence, and a stochastic hidden Markov model of infection transmission (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible, or SIS model). All forecasters were masked to the 36-month results and to the other forecasts. Forecasts of the 24 communities were scored by the likelihood of the observed results and compared using Wilcoxon’s signed-rank statistic.FindingsRegression and SIS hidden Markov models had significantly better likelihood than community expert opinion (p = 0.004 and p = 0.01, respectively). All forecasts scored better when perturbed to decrease Fisher’s information. Each individual expert’s forecast was poorer than the sum of experts.InterpretationRegression and SIS models performed significantly better than expert opinion, although all forecasts were overly confident. Further model refinements may score better, although would need to be tested and compared in new masked studies. Construction of guidelines that rely on forecasting future prevalence could consider use of mathematical and statistical models.     

Imaging Ca2+ Dynamics in Cone Photoreceptor Axon Terminals of the Mouse Retina

Retinal cone photoreceptors (cones) serve daylight vision and are the basis of color discrimination. They are subject to degeneration, often leading to blindness in many retinal diseases. Calcium (Ca²⁺), a key second messenger in photoreceptor signaling and metabolism, has been proposed to be indirectly linked with photoreceptor degeneration in various animal models. Systematically studying these aspects of cone physiology and pathophysiology has been hampered by the difficulties of electrically recording from these small cells, in particular in the mouse where the retina is dominated by rod photoreceptors. To circumvent this issue, we established a two-photon Ca²⁺ imaging protocol using a transgenic mouse line that expresses the genetically encoded Ca²⁺ biosensor TN-XL exclusively in cones and can be crossbred with mouse models for photoreceptor degeneration. The protocol described here involves preparing vertical sections (“slices”) of retinas from mice and optical imaging of light stimulus-evoked changes in cone Ca²⁺ level. The protocol also allows “in-slice measurement” of absolute Ca²⁺ concentrations; as the recordings can be followed by calibration. This protocol enables studies into functional cone properties and is expected to contribute to the understanding of cone Ca²⁺ signaling as well as the potential involvement of Ca²⁺ in photoreceptor death and retinal degeneration.     

What Explains Child Malnutrition of Indigenous People of Northeast India?

Household risk factors affecting child health, particularly malnutrition, are mainly basic amenities like drinking water, toilet facility, housing and fuel used for cooking. This paper considered the collective impact of basic amenities measured by an index specially constructed as the contextual factor of child malnutrition. The contextual factor operates at both the macro and micro levels namely the state level and the household level. The importance of local contextual factors is especially important when studying the nutritional status of children of indigenous people living in remote and inaccessible regions. This study has shown the contextual factors as potential factors of malnutrition among children in northeast India, which is home to the largest number of tribes in the country. In terms of macro level contextual factor it has been found that 8.9 per cent, 3.7 per cent and 3.6 per cent of children in high, medium and low risk households respectively, are severely wasted. Lower micro level household health risks, literate household heads, and scheduled tribe households have a negating effect on child malnutrition. Children who received colostrum feeding at the time of birth and those who were vaccinated against measles are also less subject to wasting compared to other children, and these differences are statistically significant.     

The metabolic cost of changing walking speeds is significant,implies lower optimal speeds for shorter distances,and increases daily energy estimates

Humans do not generally walk at constant speed, except perhaps on a treadmill. Normal walking involves starting, stopping and changing speeds, in addition to roughly steady locomotion. Here, we measure the metabolic energy cost of walking when changing speed. Subjects (healthy adults) walked with oscillating speeds on a constant-speed treadmill, alternating between walking slower and faster than the treadmill belt, moving back and forth in the laboratory frame. The metabolic rate for oscillating-speed walking was significantly higher than that for constant-speed walking (6–20% cost increase for ±0.13–0.27 m s⁻¹ speed fluctuations). The metabolic rate increase was correlated with two models: a model based on kinetic energy fluctuations and an inverted pendulum walking model, optimized for oscillating-speed constraints. The cost of changing speeds may have behavioural implications: we predicted that the energy-optimal walking speed is lower for shorter distances. We measured preferred human walking speeds for different walking distances and found people preferred lower walking speeds for shorter distances as predicted. Further, analysing published daily walking-bout distributions, we estimate that the cost of changing speeds is 4–8% of daily walking energy budget.     

Proteome profile of the endomembrane of developing coleoptiles from switchgrass (Panicum virgatum)

The cost‐effective production of biofuels from lignocellulosic material will likely require manipulation of plant biomass, specifically cell walls. The North American native prairie grass Panicum virgatum (switchgrass) is seen as a potential biofuel crop with an array of genetic resources currently being developed. We have characterized the endomembrane proteome of switchgrass coleoptiles to provide additional information to the switchgrass community. In total, we identified 1750 unique proteins from two biological replicates. These data have been deposited in the ProteomeXchange with the identifier PXD001351 ( http://proteomecentral.proteomexchange.org/dataset/PXD001351 ).     

A Change in Vaccine Efficacy and Duration of Protection Explains Recent Rises in Pertussis Incidence in the United States

Over the past ten years the incidence of pertussis in the United States (U.S.) has risen steadily, with 2012 seeing the highest case number since 1955. There has also been a shift over the same time period in the age group reporting the largest number of cases (aside from infants), from adolescents to 7–11 year olds. We use epidemiological modelling and a large case incidence dataset to explain the upsurge. We investigate several hypotheses for the upsurge in pertussis cases by fitting a suite of dynamic epidemiological models to incidence data from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) between 1990–2009, as well as incidence data from a variety of sources from 1950–1989. We find that: the best-fitting model is one in which vaccine efficacy and duration of protection of the acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine is lower than that of the whole-cell (wP) vaccine, (efficacy of the first three doses 80% [95% CI: 78%, 82%] versus 90% [95% CI: 87%, 94%]), increasing the rate at which disease is reported to NNDSS is not sufficient to explain the upsurge and 3) 2010–2012 disease incidence is predicted well. In this study, we use all available U.S. surveillance data to: 1) fit a set of mathematical models and determine which best explains these data and 2) determine the epidemiological and vaccine-related parameter values of this model. We find evidence of a difference in efficacy and duration of protection between the two vaccine types, wP and aP (aP efficacy and duration lower than wP). Future refinement of the model presented here will allow for an exploration of alternative vaccination strategies such as different age-spacings, further booster doses, and cocooning.     

Unraveling 14-3-3 Proteins in C4 Panicoids with Emphasis on Model Plant Setaria italica Reveals Phosphorylation-Dependent Subcellular Localization of RS Splicing Factor

14-3-3 proteins are a large multigenic family of regulatory proteins ubiquitously found in eukaryotes. In plants, 14-3-3 proteins are reported to play significant role in both development and response to stress stimuli. Therefore, considering their importance, genome-wide analyses have been performed in many plants including Arabidopsis, rice and soybean. But, till date, no comprehensive investigation has been conducted in any C₄ panicoid crops. In view of this, the present study was performed to identify 8, 5 and 26 potential 14-3-3 gene family members in foxtail millet (Si14-3-3), sorghum (Sb14-3-3) and maize (Zm14-3-3), respectively. In silico characterization revealed large variations in their gene structures; segmental and tandem duplications have played a major role in expansion of these genes in foxtail millet and maize. Gene ontology annotation showed the participation of 14-3-3 proteins in diverse biological processes and molecular functions, and in silico expression profiling indicated their higher expression in all the investigated tissues. Comparative mapping was performed to derive the orthologous relationships between 14-3-3 genes of foxtail millet and other Poaceae members, which showed a higher, as well as similar percentage of orthology among these crops. Expression profiling of Si14-3-3 genes during different time-points of abiotic stress and hormonal treatments showed a differential expression pattern of these genes, and sub-cellular localization studies revealed the site of action of Si14-3-3 proteins within the cells. Further downstream characterization indicated the interaction of Si14-3-3 with a nucleocytoplasmic shuttling phosphoprotein (SiRSZ21A) in a phosphorylation-dependent manner, and this demonstrates that Si14-3-3 might regulate the splicing events by binding with phosphorylated SiRSZ21A. Taken together, the present study is a comprehensive analysis of 14-3-3 gene family members in foxtail millet, sorghum and maize, which provides interesting information on their gene structure, protein domains, phylogenetic and evolutionary relationships, and expression patterns during abiotic stresses and hormonal treatments, which could be useful in choosing candidate members for further functional characterization. In addition, demonstration of interaction between Si14-3-3 and SiRSZ21A provides novel clues on the involvement of 14-3-3 proteins in the splicing events.     

Assessment of Oral Fluid HIV Test Performance in an HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Trial in Bangkok,Thailand

Background

Rapid easy-to-use HIV tests offer opportunities to increase HIV testing among populations at risk of infection. We used the OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 antibody test (OraQuick) in the Bangkok Tenofovir Study, an HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis trial among people who inject drugs.

Methods

The Bangkok Tenofovir Study was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. We tested participants’ oral fluid for HIV using OraQuick monthly and blood using a nucleic-acid amplification test (NAAT) every 3 months. We used Kaplan-Meier methods to estimate the duration from a positive HIV NAAT until the mid-point between the last non-reactive and first reactive oral fluid test and proportional hazards to examine factors associated with the time until the test was reactive.

Results

We screened 3678 people for HIV using OraQuick. Among 447 with reactive results, 436 (97.5%) were confirmed HIV-infected, 10 (2.2%) HIV-uninfected, and one (0.2%) had indeterminate results. Two participants with non-reactive OraQuick results were, in fact, HIV-infected at screening yielding 99.5% sensitivity, 99.7% specificity, a 97.8% positive predictive value, and a 99.9% negative predictive value. Participants receiving tenofovir took longer to develop a reactive OraQuick (191.8 days) than participants receiving placebo (16.8 days) (p = 0.02) and participants infected with HIV CRF01_AE developed a reactive OraQuick earlier than participants infected with other subtypes (p = 0.04).

Discussion

The oral fluid HIV test performed well at screening, suggesting it can be used when rapid results and non-invasive tools are preferred. However, participants receiving tenofovir took longer to develop a reactive oral fluid test result than those receiving placebo. Thus, among people using pre-exposure prophylaxis, a blood-based HIV test may be an appropriate choice.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00119106","term_id":"NCT00119106"}}NCT00119106.