Geography predicts neutral genetic diversity of human populations

A leading theory for the origin of modern humans, the ‘recent African origin’ (RAO) model [1], postulates that the ancestors of all modern humans originated in East Africa and that, around 100,000 years ago, some modern humans left the African continent and subsequently colonised the entire world, displacing previously established human species such as Neanderthals in Europe 2., 3.. This scenario is supported by the observation that human populations from Africa are genetically the most diverse [2] and that the genetic diversity of non-African populations is negatively correlated with their genetic differentiation towards populations from Africa [3].     

Walk on the Wild Side: Estimating the Global Magnitude of Visits to Protected Areas

How often do people visit the world’s protected areas (PAs)? Despite PAs covering one-eighth of the land and being a major focus of nature-based recreation and tourism, we don’t know. To address this, we compiled a globally-representative database of visits to PAs and built region-specific models predicting visit rates from PA size, local population size, remoteness, natural attractiveness, and national income. Applying these models to all but the very smallest of the world’s terrestrial PAs suggests that together they receive roughly 8 billion (8 x 109) visits/y—of which more than 80% are in Europe and North America. Linking our region-specific visit estimates to valuation studies indicates that these visits generate approximately US $600 billion/y in direct in-country expenditure and US $250 billion/y in consumer surplus. These figures dwarf current, typically inadequate spending on conserving PAs. Thus, even without considering the many other ecosystem services that PAs provide to people, our findings underscore calls for greatly increased investment in their conservation.Enjoyment of nature, much of it in protected areas (PAs), is recognised as the most prominent cultural ecosystem service [1–3], yet we still lack even a rough understanding of its global magnitude and economic significance. Large-scale assessments have been restricted to regional or biome-specific investigations [4–8] (but see [9]). There are good reasons for this. Information on visit rates is limited, widely scattered, and confounded by variation in methods [10,11]. Likewise, estimates of the value of visits vary greatly—geographically, among methods, and depending on the component of value being measured [12–14]. Until now, these problems have prevented data-driven analysis of the worldwide scale of nature-based recreation and tourism. But with almost all the world’s governments committed (through the Aichi Biodiversity Targets [15]) to integrating biodiversity into national accounts, policymakers require such gaps in our knowledge of natural capital to be filled.We tackled this shortfall in our understanding of a major ecosystem service by focusing on terrestrial PAs, which cover one-eighth of the land [16] and are a major focus of nature-based recreation and tourism. We compiled data on visit rates to over 500 PAs and built region-specific models, which predicted variation in visitation in relation to the properties of PAs and to local socioeconomic conditions. Next, we used these models to estimate visit rates to all but the smallest of the world’s terrestrial PAs. Last, by summing these estimates by region and combining the totals with region-specific medians for the value of nature visits obtained from the literature, we derived approximate estimates of the global extent and economic significance of PA visitation.Given the scarcity of data on visits to PAs, our approach was to use all available information (although we excluded marine and Antarctic sites, and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Category I PAs where tourism is typically discouraged; for further details of data collection and analysis see Materials and Methods). This generated a database of visitor records for 556 PAs spread across 51 countries and included 2,663 records of annual visit numbers over our best-sampled ten-year period (1998–2007) (S1 Table). Mean annual visit rates for individual PAs in this sample ranged from zero to over 10 million visits/y, with a median across all sampled PAs of 20,333 visits/y.We explored this variation by modelling it in relation to a series of biophysical and socioeconomic variables that might plausibly predict visit rates (after refs [6,7,17]): PA size, local population size, PA remoteness, a simple measure of the attractiveness of the PA’s natural features, and national income (see Materials and Methods for a priori predictions). For each of five major regions, we performed univariate regressions (S2 Table) and then built generalised linear models (GLMs) in an effort to predict variation in observed visit rates. While the GLMs had modest explanatory power within regions (S3 Table), together they accounted for 52.9% of observed global variation in visit rates. Associations with individual GLM variables—controlling for the effects of other variables—differed regionally in their strength but broadly matched our predictions (S1 Fig.). Visit rates increased with local population size (in Europe), decreased with remoteness (everywhere apart from Asia/Australasia), increased with natural attractiveness (in North and Latin America), and increased with national income (everywhere else). Controlling for these variables, visit rates were highest in North America, lower in Asia/Australasia and Europe, and lowest in Africa and Latin America.To quantify how often people visit PAs as a whole, we used our region-specific GLMs to estimate visit rates to 94,238 sites listed in the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) [18]). We again excluded marine, Antarctic, and Category I PAs, as well as almost 40,000 extremely small sites which were below the size (10 ha) of the smallest PA in our sample (S2 Fig.). The limited power of our GLMs and significant errors in the WDPA mean our estimates of visit rates should be treated with caution for individual sites or (when aggregated to national level) for smaller countries. However, the larger-scale patterns they reveal are marked. Estimated median visit rates per PA (averaged within countries) are lowest in Africa (at around 3,000/y) and Latin America (4,000/y), and greatest in North America (350,000/y) (S3 Table). When visit rates are aggregated across all PAs within a country, pronounced regional differences in the numbers of PAs (with relatively few in Africa and Latin America) magnify these patterns and indicate that while many African countries have <100,000 PA visits/y, PAs in the United States receive a combined total of over 3 billion visits/y (Fig. 1). This variation is underscored when aggregate PA visit rates are standardised by the annual number of non-workdays and total population size of each region: across Europe we reckon there are ~5 PA visits/100 non-work person-days; for North America, the figure is ~10 visits/100 non-work person-days respectively, while for each other region our estimates are <0.3 visits/100 non-work person-days.Open in a separate windowFig 1Estimated total PA visit rates for each country.Totals (which are log₁₀-transformed) were derived by applying the relevant regional GLM (S3 Table) to all of a country’s terrestrial PAs (excluding those <10 ha, and marine and IUCN Category I PAs) listed in the WDPA [18]. Asterisks show countries for which we had visit rate observations.Summing our aggregate estimates of PA visits suggests that between them, the world’s terrestrial PAs receive approximately 8 billion visits/y. Of these, we estimate 3.8 billion visits/y are in Europe (where more than half of the PAs in the WDPA are located) and 3.3 billion visits/y are in North America (S3 Table). These numbers are strikingly large. However, given our confidence intervals (95% CIs for the global total: 5.4–18.5 billion/y) and considering several conservative aspects of our calculations (e.g., the exclusion of ~40,000 very small sites and the incomplete nature of the WDPA), we consider it implausible that there are fewer than 5 billion PA visits worldwide each year. Three national estimates support this view: 2.5 billion visitdays/y to US PAs in 1996 [4], >1 billion visits/y (albeit many of them cultural rather than nature-based) to China’s National Parks in 2006 [19], and 3.2–3.9 billion visits/y to all British “ecosystems” (most of which are not in PAs) in 2010 [7].Finally, what can be inferred about the economic significance of visits on this scale? Economists working on tourism distinguish two main, non-overlapping components of value [12]: direct expenditure by visitors (an element of economic impact, calculated from spending on fees, travel, accommodation, etc.); and consumer surplus (a measure of economic value which arises because many visitors would be prepared to pay more for their visit than they actually have to, and which is defined as the difference between what visitors would be prepared to pay for a visit and what they actually spend; consumer surplus is typically quantified using travel cost or contingent valuation methods). We conducted an extensive literature search to derive median (but conservative) figures for each type of value for each region (S4 Table). Applying these to our corresponding estimates of visit rates and summing across regions yields an estimate of global gross direct expenditure associated with PA visits (within-country only, and excluding indirect and induced expenditure) of ~US $600 billion/y worldwide (at 2014 prices). The corresponding figure for global consumer surplus is ~US $250 billion/y.Such numbers are unavoidably imprecise. Uncertainty in our modelled visit rates and the wide variation in published estimates of expenditure and consumer surplus mean that they could be out by a factor of two or more. However, comparison with calculations that visits to North American PAs alone have an economic impact of $350–550 billion/y [4] and that direct expenditure on all travel and tourism worldwide runs at $2,000 billion/y [20] suggests our figures are of the correct order of magnitude, and that the value of PA visitation runs into hundreds of billions of dollars annually.These results quantify, we believe for the first time, the scale of visits to the world’s PAs and their approximate economic significance. We currently spend <$10 billion/y in safeguarding PAs [21]—a figure which is widely regarded as grossly insufficient [21–25]. Even without considering the many other benefits which PAs provide [22], our estimates of the economic impact and value of PA visitation dwarf current expenditure—highlighting the risks of underinvestment in conservation, and suggesting substantially increased investments in protected area maintenance and expansion would yield substantial returns.     

Ancient DNA suggests modern wolves trace their origin to a Late Pleistocene expansion from Beringia

Grey wolves (Canis lupus) are one of the few large terrestrial carnivores that have maintained a wide geographical distribution across the Northern Hemisphere throughout the Pleistocene and Holocene. Recent genetic studies have suggested that, despite this continuous presence, major demographic changes occurred in wolf populations between the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene, and that extant wolves trace their ancestry to a single Late Pleistocene population. Both the geographical origin of this ancestral population and how it became widespread remain unknown. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit modelling framework to analyse a data set of 90 modern and 45 ancient mitochondrial wolf genomes from across the Northern Hemisphere, spanning the last 50,000 years. Our results suggest that contemporary wolf populations trace their ancestry to an expansion from Beringia at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum, and that this process was most likely driven by Late Pleistocene ecological fluctuations that occurred across the Northern Hemisphere. This study provides direct ancient genetic evidence that long‐range migration has played an important role in the population history of a large carnivore, and provides insight into how wolves survived the wave of megafaunal extinctions at the end of the last glaciation. Moreover, because Late Pleistocene grey wolves were the likely source from which all modern dogs trace their origins, the demographic history described in this study has fundamental implications for understanding the geographical origin of the dog.     

Boldness and Information Use in Three‐Spined Sticklebacks

In foraging groups, individuals may utilise information from their social environment to aid decision making when choosing where to search for food. Little work has looked at the costs or benefits of behavioural differences, such as consistent individual variation in boldness, with respect to learning ability. Here, we investigate the response of three‐spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) to ‘social cues’, ‘local enhancement’ and ‘public information’ during foraging tasks. Our results confirm previous work suggesting that this species responds to social cues and local enhancement but not public information. Variation in boldness did not affect the use of different types of information. However, time taken to make a choice and reach a patch varied between fish with different levels of boldness. Contrary to expectation, shy fish were the more variable individuals, having a greater range of reaction times when responding to the tasks. This suggests that individual behavioural differences still play a role when utilising information obtained from the environment and may influence the relative benefits that could result in different contexts.     

When Should Communities and Conservationists Monitor Exploited Resources?

Both conservationists and harvesters may be willing to contribute to participatory monitoring of exploited species. However, this can be costly and stakeholders need to choose whether monitoring programs or other alternatives, such as a moratorium or unmonitored exploitation, meet their objectives most efficiently. We discuss when, and how much, stakeholders may be willing to contribute to monitoring of exploited resources. We predict that communities’ contributions will usually be much less than the annual value of the harvest, and will be affected by their dependency upon it; their discount rate; its cultural importance, vulnerability to overexploitation and amenability to monitoring. ‘Efficient’ conservationists’ willingness to contribute should be similar to that of communities’, since monitoring and management programs must compete with compensated moratoria. The combined willingness to contribute of both stakeholder groups will usually be much less than twice the annual revenue from the resource. Applying this framework to a case-study of crayfish harvesting in Madagascar, we find that the total willingness to contribute to monitoring is likely to be insufficient to support conventional monitoring efforts. We conclude that conservation planners must be realistic about what stakeholders are willing to contribute to monitoring programmes and consider low cost methods or negotiated moratoria.     

Involvement of prostanoids in the regulation of angiogenesis by polypeptide growth factors.

Polypeptide growth factors (PGFs), mainly those of the fibroblast growth factor (FGF) family, have been shown to be capable of regulating angiogenesis. Although many data have been accumulated during this last year on the mechanism of action of PGF, little is known about a possible identification of second messengers signalling to the cell the occupancy of the receptor by its ligand. We have previously proposed that arachidonic acid or its derivatives may play a role as PGF second messengers. In the present paper we described a modification of the chorioallanthoic membrane (CAM) technique, involving the use of labelled sulphate to follow the angiogenic process. Thus we have been able to correlate morphological observation of CAMs development with incorporation of labelled sulphate in a stable form. Here we show that, as expected, PGF as endothelial cell growth factor (ECGS) or basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) potentiate the incorporation of radioactivity into CAMs at concentrations which for bFGF are of the order of 1.5 micrograms/egg. This effect can be correlated to the generation of prostanoids by two kinds of approach: A) PGE1 injected into eggs was capable of strongly increasing labelling of CAMs; B) Indomethacin had a dramatic effect on embryo survival as well as on CAM development, decreasing both at very low concentration (50 survival rate observable at 2 micrograms/egg). Finally vanadate, which is known to inhibit tyrosine phosphatase, was capable of potentiating the effect of PGF on angiogenesis. Thus it appears that products of the prostaglandin H synthase pathway behave as mediators of PGF control of angiogenesis.     

Going the distance: human population genetics in a clinal world

Global human genetic variation is greatly influenced by geography, with genetic differentiation between populations increasing with geographic distance and within-population diversity decreasing with distance from Africa. In fact, these 'clines' can explain most of the variation in human populations. Despite this, population genetics inferences often rely on models that do not take geography into account, which could result in misleading conclusions when working at global geographic scales. Geographically explicit approaches have great potential for the study of human population genetics. Here, we discuss the most promising avenues of research in the context of human settlement history and the detection of genomic elements under natural selection. We also review recent technical advances and address the challenges of integrating geography and genetics.     

Environmental gradients predict the genetic population structure of a coral reef fish in the Red Sea

The relatively recent fields of terrestrial landscape and marine seascape genetics seek to identify the influence of biophysical habitat features on the spatial genetic structure of populations or individuals. Over the last few years, there has been accumulating evidence for the effect of environmental heterogeneity on patterns of gene flow and connectivity in marine systems. Here, we investigate the population genetic patterns of an anemonefish, Amphiprion bicinctus, along the Saudi Arabian coast of the Red Sea. We collected nearly one thousand samples from 19 locations, spanning approximately 1500 km, and genotyped them at 38 microsatellite loci. Patterns of gene flow appeared to follow a stepping‐stone model along the northern and central Red Sea, which was disrupted by a distinct genetic break at a latitude of approximately 19°N. The Red Sea is characterized by pronounced environmental gradients along its axis, roughly separating the northern and central from the southern basin. Using mean chlorophyll‐a concentrations as a proxy for this gradient, we ran tests of isolation by distance (IBD, R² = 0.52) and isolation by environment (IBE, R² = 0.64), as well as combined models using partial Mantel tests and multiple matrix regression with randomization (MMRR). We found that genetic structure across our sampling sites may be best explained by a combined model of IBD and IBE (Mantel: R² = 0.71, MMRR: R² = 0.86). Our results highlight the potential key role of environmental patchiness in shaping patterns of gene flow in species with pelagic larval dispersal. We support growing calls for the integration of biophysical habitat characteristics into future studies of population genetic structure.     

Leaf habit does not predict leaf functional traits in cerrado woody species

Plant species with a high leaf life span (LLS) commonly have a low specific leaf area (SLA), leaf nitrogen per unit mass (N), and phosphorous concentration (P), whereas species with low LLS have a high SLA, N and P. However, LLS tends to be longer in species growing in low-nutrient soils and, therefore, differences in LLS and other leaf traits may not be consistent with a plant classification according to leaf habit. Here we investigated whether leaf habit is consistent with leaf economic spectrum trade-offs in cerrado (a Neotropical savanna) woody species. We analyzed the SLA, N and P of 125 woody species with a distinct leaf habit (deciduous, semideciduous, brevideciduous or evergreen). We also gathered data on the LLS (33 species), maximum net photosynthesis per leaf area (A_area, 56 species) and per leaf mass (A_mass, 31 species), comprising the most extensive database analyzed so far for the cerrado. Differences among leaf habit groups were tested using generalized linear mixed models and ANOVA. We did not find differences in SLA and N among species with a distinct leaf habit, but deciduous species had a higher leaf P concentration than evergreens. Species did not differ in LLS and A_mass, but A_area varied among groups. Semideciduous species had higher A_area values than deciduous and brevideciduous species, but all other groups had similar A_area values. Because of the small difference in the LLS, SLA, leaf N, leaf P and maximum net photosynthesis, we argue that deciduous, brevideciduous, semideciduous and evergreen species may not constitute different functional groups in cerrado woody species.