Development of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) score among young children with respiratory infections in South Africa

Objective

Pneumonia is a leading cause of death in children worldwide. A simple clinical score predicting the probability of death in a young child with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) could aid clinicians in case management and provide a standardized severity measure during epidemiologic studies.

Methods

We analyzed 4,148 LRTI hospitalizations in children <24 months enrolled in a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine trial in South Africa from 1998–2001, to develop the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC). Using clinical data at admission, a multivariable logistic regression model for mortality was developed and statistically evaluated using bootstrap resampling techniques. Points were assigned to risk factors based on their coefficients in the multivariable model. A child''s RISC score is the sum of points for each risk factor present. Separate models were developed for HIV-infected and non-infected children.

Results

Significant risk factors for HIV-infected and non-infected children included low oxygen saturation, chest indrawing, wheezing, and refusal to feed. The models also included age and HIV clinical classification (for HIV-infected children) or weight-for-age (for non-infected children). RISC scores ranged up to 7 points for HIV-infected or 6 points for non-infected children and correlated with probability of death (0–47%, HIV-infected; 0–14%, non-infected). Final models showed good discrimination (area under the ROC curve) and calibration (goodness-of-fit).

Conclusion

The RISC score incorporates a simple set of risk factors that accurately discriminate between young children based on their risk of death from LRTI, and may provide an objective means to quantify severity based on the risk of mortality.     

5-Lipoxygenase inhibition by N-hydroxycarbamates in dual-function compounds

A series of N-hydroxycarbamates containing a histaminergic H(1) receptor antagonist pharmacophore was synthesized. In vitro assays determined the compounds had both histaminergic binding and 5-lipoxygenase inhibiting activities comparable to the corresponding N-hydroxyurea analog. Animal models demonstrated antihistaminergic and the 5-lipopxygenase inhibitory activity, with the N-hydroxyurea analog having a better overall profile.     

Early evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype C epidemic in rural Malawi

We have tracked the early years of the evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemic in a rural district of central east Africa from the first documented introductions of subtypes A, D, and C to the present predominance of subtype C. The earliest subtype C sequences ever reported are described. Blood samples were collected on filter papers from 1981 to 1984 and from 1987 to 1989 from more than 44,000 individuals living in two areas of Karonga District, Malawi. These samples included HIV-1-positive samples from 200 people. In 1982 to 1984, HIV-1 subtypes A, C, and D were all present, though in small numbers. By 1987 to 1989, 152 (90%) of a total of 168 sequences were subtype C and AC, AD, and DC recombinants had emerged. Four of the subtype C sequences from 1983 to 1984 were closely related and were found at the base of a large cluster of low diversity that by the late 1980s accounted for 40% of C sequences. The other two early C sequences fell into a separate and more diverse cluster. Three other clusters containing sequences from the late 1980s were identified. Each cluster contained at least one sample from a person who had recently arrived in the district. From 18 HIV-1-positive spouse pairs, 12 very closely related pairs of sequences were identified. We conclude that there were multiple introductions of HIV-1 with limited spread, followed by explosive growth of a subtype C cluster, probably arising from a single introduction in or before 1983.     

Evaluation of bone marrow lesion volume as a knee osteoarthritis biomarker - longitudinal relationships with pain and structural changes: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

Introduction

Bone marrow lesion (BML) size may be an important imaging biomarker for osteoarthritis-related clinical trials and reducing BML size may be an important therapeutic goal. However, data on the interrelationships between BML size, pain, and structural progression are inconsistent and rarely examined in the same cohort. Therefore, we evaluated the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of BML volume with knee pain and joint space narrowing (JSN).

Methods

A BML volume assessment was performed on magnetic resonance images of the knee collected at the 24- and 48-month Osteoarthritis Initiative visits from a convenience sample of 404 participants in the progression cohort. During the same visits, knee pain was assessed with WOMAC pain scores and knee radiographs were acquired and scored for JSN. BML volume was summed to generate a total knee volume and an index tibiofemoral compartment volume (compartment with greater baseline JSN). Primary analyses included multiple linear regressions (outcome = pain, predictor = total knee BML volume) and logistic regressions (outcome = JSN, predictor = index tibiofemoral compartment BML volume).

Results

This sample was 49% female with a mean age of 63 (9.2 standard deviation (SD)) years, and 71% had radiographic osteoarthritis in the study knee. Larger baseline BMLs were associated with greater baseline knee pain (P = 0.01), the presence of JSN at baseline (odds ratio (OR) = 1.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.23 to 1.83), and JSN progression (OR = 1.27, 95%CI = 1.11 to 1.46). Changes in total knee BML volume had a positive association with changes in knee pain severity (P = 0.004) and this association may be driven by knees that were progressing from no or small baseline BMLs to larger BMLs. In contrast, we found no linear positive relationship between BML volume change and JSN progression. Instead, regression of medial tibiofemoral BML volume was associated with JSN progression compared to knees with no or minimal changes in BML volume (OR = 3.36, 95%CI = 1.55 to 7.28). However, follow-up analyses indicated that the association between JSN progression and BML volume change may primarily be influenced by baseline BML volume.

Conclusion

Large baseline BMLs are associated with greater baseline knee pain, the presence of JSN at baseline, and disease progression. Additionally, BML regression is associated with decreased knee pain but not a reduced risk of concurrent JSN progression.     

Improving the evidence base for decision making during a pandemic: the example of 2009 influenza A/H1N1

This article synthesizes and extends discussions held during an international meeting on "Surveillance for Decision Making: The Example of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1," held at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics (CCDD), Harvard School of Public Health, on June 14 and 15, 2010. The meeting involved local, national, and global health authorities and academics representing 7 countries on 4 continents. We define the needs for surveillance in terms of the key decisions that must be made in response to a pandemic: how large a response to mount and which control measures to implement, for whom, and when. In doing so, we specify the quantitative evidence required to make informed decisions. We then describe the sources of surveillance and other population-based data that can presently--or in the future--form the basis for such evidence, and the interpretive tools needed to process raw surveillance data. We describe other inputs to decision making besides epidemiologic and surveillance data, and we conclude with key lessons of the 2009 pandemic for designing and planning surveillance in the future.     

In-cell click labelling of small molecules to determine subcellular localisation

Small molecule fluorometric boron dipyrromethene probes were developed to bind hepatitis C virus-encoded NS5A protein and aid subcellular distribution studies. These molecules did not co-locate with NS5A, therefore alternative ‘silent’ azide reporters were used to obtain a more relevant picture of their distribution. Following pre-incubation with replicon cells, click chemistry was used to append a fluorophore to the azide that confirmed the co-localisation of the small molecule with the NS5A protein, thus providing greater insight into the antiviral mode of action of this chemotype.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12154-010-0047-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.