Comparison of Statistical Models for Analyzing Wheat Yield Time Series

The world''s population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale.     

Adaptation of an L-Proline Adenylation Domain to Use 4-Propyl-L-Proline in the Evolution of Lincosamide Biosynthesis

Clinically used lincosamide antibiotic lincomycin incorporates in its structure 4-propyl-L-proline (PPL), an unusual amino acid, while celesticetin, a less efficient related compound, makes use of proteinogenic L-proline. Biochemical characterization, as well as phylogenetic analysis and homology modelling combined with the molecular dynamics simulation were employed for complex comparative analysis of the orthologous protein pair LmbC and CcbC from the biosynthesis of lincomycin and celesticetin, respectively. The analysis proved the compared proteins to be the stand-alone adenylation domains strictly preferring their own natural substrate, PPL or L-proline. The LmbC substrate binding pocket is adapted to accomodate a rare PPL precursor. When compared with L-proline specific ones, several large amino acid residues were replaced by smaller ones opening a channel which allowed the alkyl side chain of PPL to be accommodated. One of the most important differences, that of the residue corresponding to V306 in CcbC changing to G308 in LmbC, was investigated in vitro and in silico. Moreover, the substrate binding pocket rearrangement also allowed LmbC to effectively adenylate 4-butyl-L-proline and 4-pentyl-L-proline, substrates with even longer alkyl side chains, producing more potent lincosamides. A shift of LmbC substrate specificity appears to be an integral part of biosynthetic pathway adaptation to the PPL acquisition. A set of genes presumably coding for the PPL biosynthesis is present in the lincomycin - but not in the celesticetin cluster; their homologs are found in biosynthetic clusters of some pyrrolobenzodiazepines (PBD) and hormaomycin. Whereas in the PBD and hormaomycin pathways the arising precursors are condensed to another amino acid moiety, the LmbC protein is the first functionally proved part of a unique condensation enzyme connecting PPL to the specialized amino sugar building unit.     

Back from the Brink: The Holocene History of the Carpathian Barbel Barbus carpathicus

As a result of specific adaptations and habitat preferences strongly rheophilic fish species may show high levels of endemism. Many temperate rheophilic fish species were subjected to a series of range contractions during the Pleistocene, and then successfully expanded during the Holocene, colonising previously abandoned areas. The Carpathian barbel (Barbus carpathicus Kotlík, Tsigenopoulos, Ráb et Berrebi 2002) occurs in the montane streams in three basins of the main Central European rivers in the northern part of the Carpathian range. We used genetic variation within 3 mitochondrial and 9 microsatellite loci to determine a pattern of postglacial expansion in B. carpathicus. We found that overall genetic variation within the species is relatively low. Estimate of time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of mitochondrial sequences falls within the Holocene. The highest levels of genetic variation found in upper reaches of the Tisa river in the Danube basin suggest that glacial refugia were located in the south-eastern part of the species range. Our data suggest that the species crossed different watersheds at least six times as three genetically distinct groups (probably established in different expansion episodes) were found in northern part of the species range. Clines of genetic variation were observed in both the Danube and Vistula basins, which probably resulted from subsequent bottlenecks while colonizing successive habitats (south eastern populations) or due to the admixture of genetically diverse individuals to a previously uniform population (Vistula basin). Therefore, B. carpathicus underwent both demographic breakdowns and expansions during the Holocene, showing its distribution and demography are sensitive to environmental change. Our findings are important in the light of the current human-induced habitats alterations.     

A High-throughput-compatible FRET-based Platform for Identification and Characterization of Botulinum Neurotoxin Light Chain Modulators

Botulinum neurotoxin (BoNT) is a potent and potentially lethal bacterial toxin that binds to host motor neurons, is internalized into the cell, and cleaves intracellular proteins that are essential for neurotransmitter release. BoNT is comprised of a heavy chain (HC), which mediates host cell binding and internalization, and a light chain (LC), which cleaves intracellular host proteins essential for acetylcholine release. While therapies that inhibit toxin binding/internalization have a small time window of administration, compounds that target intracellular LC activity have a much larger time window of administrations, particularly relevant given the extremely long half-life of the toxin. In recent years, small molecules have been heavily analyzed as potential LC inhibitors based on their increased cellular permeability relative to larger therapeutics (peptides, aptamers, etc.). Lead identification often involves high-throughput screening (HTS), where large libraries of small molecules are screened based on their ability to modulate therapeutic target function. Here we describe a FRET-based assay with a commercial BoNT/A LC substrate and recombinant LC that can be automated for HTS of potential BoNT inhibitors. Moreover, we describe a manual technique that can be used for follow-up secondary screening, or for comparing the potency of several candidate compounds.     

The effects of local and landscape-scale habitat characteristics and prey availability on corridor use by carnivores: A comparison of two contrasting farmlands

Corridors are thought to reduce the negative biological effects of habitat loss and fragmentation by providing connectivity and suitable habitat for many species, including carnivores. Although corridor structure maintenance is considered to be an essential tool for carnivore conservation in a human-dominated landscape, surprisingly little is known about the effects of different factors at various spatial scales. The main aim of this study was to determine how local and landscape-scale habitat characteristics and prey availability influence the corridor use by carnivores in a Central European agricultural landscape. Moreover we investigated carnivore corridor occurrence in two contrasting landscapes that differ in level of habitat loss and fragmentation to evaluate relative effect of species-specific response to regional context. Results show that the availability of principal prey (small mammals) was the most crucial factor affecting carnivore corridor use. Other important factors influencing corridor use were corridor width (positive), proportion of shrubs (positive) and presence of local, low-traffic, roads (positive). Single species models revealed interspecific and area-specific differences in carnivore preference at both spatial scales. Our findings confirm the general importance of multi-level approach to evaluating species-specific habitat requirements as a crucial tool for determining suitable methods for carnivore efficient conservation in human-dominated agricultural landscape.     

Masculinization of the X Chromosome in the Pea Aphid

Evolutionary theory predicts that sexually antagonistic mutations accumulate differentially on the X chromosome and autosomes in species with an XY sex-determination system, with effects (masculinization or feminization of the X) depending on the dominance of mutations. Organisms with alternative modes of inheritance of sex chromosomes offer interesting opportunities for studying sexual conflicts and their resolution, because expectations for the preferred genomic location of sexually antagonistic alleles may differ from standard systems. Aphids display an XX/X0 system and combine an unusual inheritance of the X chromosome with the alternation of sexual and asexual reproduction. In this study, we first investigated theoretically the accumulation of sexually antagonistic mutations on the aphid X chromosome. Our results show that i) the X is always more favourable to the spread of male-beneficial alleles than autosomes, and should thus be enriched in sexually antagonistic alleles beneficial for males, ii) sexually antagonistic mutations beneficial for asexual females accumulate preferentially on autosomes, iii) in contrast to predictions for standard systems, these qualitative results are not affected by the dominance of mutations. Under the assumption that sex-biased gene expression evolves to solve conflicts raised by the spread of sexually antagonistic alleles, one expects that male-biased genes should be enriched on the X while asexual female-biased genes should be enriched on autosomes. Using gene expression data (RNA-Seq) in males, sexual females and asexual females of the pea aphid, we confirm these theoretical predictions. Although other mechanisms than the resolution of sexual antagonism may lead to sex-biased gene expression, we argue that they could hardly explain the observed difference between X and autosomes. On top of reporting a strong masculinization of the aphid X chromosome, our study highlights the relevance of organisms displaying an alternative mode of sex chromosome inheritance to understanding the forces shaping chromosome evolution.     

Does P-Cresylglucuronide Have the Same Impact on Mortality as Other Protein-Bound Uremic Toxins?

Background

Uremic toxins are emerging as important, non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors in chronic kidney disease (CKD). P-cresol has been defined as a prototype protein-bound uremic toxin. Conjugation of p-cresol creates p-cresylsulfate (PCS) as the main metabolite and p-cresylglucuronide (PCG), at a markedly lower concentration. The objective of the present study was to evaluate serum PCG levels, determine the latter’s association with mortality and establish whether the various protein-bound uremic toxins (i.e. PCS, PCG and indoxylsulfate (IS)) differed in their ability to predict mortality.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We studied 139 patients (mean ± SD age: 67±12; males: 60%) at different CKD stages (34.5% at CKD stages 2–3, 33.5% at stage 4–5 and 32% at stage 5D). A recently developed high-performance liquid chromatography method was used to assay PCG concentrations. Total and free PCG levels increased with the severity of CKD. During the study period (mean duration: 779±185 days), 38 patients died. High free and total PCG levels were correlated with overall and cardiovascular mortality independently of well-known predictors of survival, such as age, vascular calcification, anemia, inflammation and (in predialysis patients) the estimated glomerular filtration rate. In the same cohort, free PCS levels and free IS levels were both correlated with mortality. Furthermore, the respective predictive powers of three Cox multivariate models (free PCS+other risk factors, free IS+other risk factors and free PCS+other risk factors) were quite similar - suggesting that an elevated PCG concentration has much the same impact on mortality as other uremic toxins (such as PCS or IS) do.

Conclusions

Although PCG is the minor metabolite of p-cresol, our study is the first to reveal its association with mortality. Furthermore, the free fraction of PCG appears to have much the same predictive power for mortality as PCS and IS do.     

High Molecular Weight Forms of Mammalian Respiratory Chain Complex II

Mitochondrial respiratory chain is organised into supramolecular structures that can be preserved in mild detergent solubilisates and resolved by native electrophoretic systems. Supercomplexes of respiratory complexes I, III and IV as well as multimeric forms of ATP synthase are well established. However, the involvement of complex II, linking respiratory chain with tricarboxylic acid cycle, in mitochondrial supercomplexes is questionable. Here we show that digitonin-solubilised complex II quantitatively forms high molecular weight structures (CII_hmw) that can be resolved by clear native electrophoresis. CII_hmw structures are enzymatically active and differ in electrophoretic mobility between tissues (500 – over 1000 kDa) and cultured cells (400–670 kDa). While their formation is unaffected by isolated defects in other respiratory chain complexes, they are destabilised in mtDNA-depleted, rho0 cells. Molecular interactions responsible for the assembly of CII_hmw are rather weak with the complexes being more stable in tissues than in cultured cells. While electrophoretic studies and immunoprecipitation experiments of CII_hmw do not indicate specific interactions with the respiratory chain complexes I, III or IV or enzymes of the tricarboxylic acid cycle, they point out to a specific interaction between CII and ATP synthase.