Comparison of Statistical Models for Analyzing Wheat Yield Time Series

The world''s population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale.     

Adaptation of an L-Proline Adenylation Domain to Use 4-Propyl-L-Proline in the Evolution of Lincosamide Biosynthesis

Clinically used lincosamide antibiotic lincomycin incorporates in its structure 4-propyl-L-proline (PPL), an unusual amino acid, while celesticetin, a less efficient related compound, makes use of proteinogenic L-proline. Biochemical characterization, as well as phylogenetic analysis and homology modelling combined with the molecular dynamics simulation were employed for complex comparative analysis of the orthologous protein pair LmbC and CcbC from the biosynthesis of lincomycin and celesticetin, respectively. The analysis proved the compared proteins to be the stand-alone adenylation domains strictly preferring their own natural substrate, PPL or L-proline. The LmbC substrate binding pocket is adapted to accomodate a rare PPL precursor. When compared with L-proline specific ones, several large amino acid residues were replaced by smaller ones opening a channel which allowed the alkyl side chain of PPL to be accommodated. One of the most important differences, that of the residue corresponding to V306 in CcbC changing to G308 in LmbC, was investigated in vitro and in silico. Moreover, the substrate binding pocket rearrangement also allowed LmbC to effectively adenylate 4-butyl-L-proline and 4-pentyl-L-proline, substrates with even longer alkyl side chains, producing more potent lincosamides. A shift of LmbC substrate specificity appears to be an integral part of biosynthetic pathway adaptation to the PPL acquisition. A set of genes presumably coding for the PPL biosynthesis is present in the lincomycin - but not in the celesticetin cluster; their homologs are found in biosynthetic clusters of some pyrrolobenzodiazepines (PBD) and hormaomycin. Whereas in the PBD and hormaomycin pathways the arising precursors are condensed to another amino acid moiety, the LmbC protein is the first functionally proved part of a unique condensation enzyme connecting PPL to the specialized amino sugar building unit.     

Masculinization of the X Chromosome in the Pea Aphid

Evolutionary theory predicts that sexually antagonistic mutations accumulate differentially on the X chromosome and autosomes in species with an XY sex-determination system, with effects (masculinization or feminization of the X) depending on the dominance of mutations. Organisms with alternative modes of inheritance of sex chromosomes offer interesting opportunities for studying sexual conflicts and their resolution, because expectations for the preferred genomic location of sexually antagonistic alleles may differ from standard systems. Aphids display an XX/X0 system and combine an unusual inheritance of the X chromosome with the alternation of sexual and asexual reproduction. In this study, we first investigated theoretically the accumulation of sexually antagonistic mutations on the aphid X chromosome. Our results show that i) the X is always more favourable to the spread of male-beneficial alleles than autosomes, and should thus be enriched in sexually antagonistic alleles beneficial for males, ii) sexually antagonistic mutations beneficial for asexual females accumulate preferentially on autosomes, iii) in contrast to predictions for standard systems, these qualitative results are not affected by the dominance of mutations. Under the assumption that sex-biased gene expression evolves to solve conflicts raised by the spread of sexually antagonistic alleles, one expects that male-biased genes should be enriched on the X while asexual female-biased genes should be enriched on autosomes. Using gene expression data (RNA-Seq) in males, sexual females and asexual females of the pea aphid, we confirm these theoretical predictions. Although other mechanisms than the resolution of sexual antagonism may lead to sex-biased gene expression, we argue that they could hardly explain the observed difference between X and autosomes. On top of reporting a strong masculinization of the aphid X chromosome, our study highlights the relevance of organisms displaying an alternative mode of sex chromosome inheritance to understanding the forces shaping chromosome evolution.     

Does P-Cresylglucuronide Have the Same Impact on Mortality as Other Protein-Bound Uremic Toxins?

Background

Uremic toxins are emerging as important, non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors in chronic kidney disease (CKD). P-cresol has been defined as a prototype protein-bound uremic toxin. Conjugation of p-cresol creates p-cresylsulfate (PCS) as the main metabolite and p-cresylglucuronide (PCG), at a markedly lower concentration. The objective of the present study was to evaluate serum PCG levels, determine the latter’s association with mortality and establish whether the various protein-bound uremic toxins (i.e. PCS, PCG and indoxylsulfate (IS)) differed in their ability to predict mortality.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We studied 139 patients (mean ± SD age: 67±12; males: 60%) at different CKD stages (34.5% at CKD stages 2–3, 33.5% at stage 4–5 and 32% at stage 5D). A recently developed high-performance liquid chromatography method was used to assay PCG concentrations. Total and free PCG levels increased with the severity of CKD. During the study period (mean duration: 779±185 days), 38 patients died. High free and total PCG levels were correlated with overall and cardiovascular mortality independently of well-known predictors of survival, such as age, vascular calcification, anemia, inflammation and (in predialysis patients) the estimated glomerular filtration rate. In the same cohort, free PCS levels and free IS levels were both correlated with mortality. Furthermore, the respective predictive powers of three Cox multivariate models (free PCS+other risk factors, free IS+other risk factors and free PCS+other risk factors) were quite similar - suggesting that an elevated PCG concentration has much the same impact on mortality as other uremic toxins (such as PCS or IS) do.

Conclusions

Although PCG is the minor metabolite of p-cresol, our study is the first to reveal its association with mortality. Furthermore, the free fraction of PCG appears to have much the same predictive power for mortality as PCS and IS do.     

Variable Behavior of iPSCs Derived from CML Patients for Response to TKI and Hematopoietic Differentiation

Chronic myeloid leukemia disease (CML) found effective therapy by treating patients with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI), which suppress the BCR-ABL1 oncogene activity. However, the majority of patients achieving remission with TKI still have molecular evidences of disease persistence. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain the disease persistence and recurrence. One of the hypotheses is that the primitive leukemic stem cells (LSCs) can survive in the presence of TKI. Understanding the mechanisms leading to TKI resistance of the LSCs in CML is a critical issue but is limited by availability of cells from patients. We generated induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) derived from CD34⁺ blood cells isolated from CML patients (CML-iPSCs) as a model for studying LSCs survival in the presence of TKI and the mechanisms supporting TKI resistance. Interestingly, CML-iPSCs resisted to TKI treatment and their survival did not depend on BCR-ABL1, as for primitive LSCs. Induction of hematopoietic differentiation of CML-iPSC clones was reduced compared to normal clones. Hematopoietic progenitors obtained from iPSCs partially recovered TKI sensitivity. Notably, different CML-iPSCs obtained from the same CML patients were heterogeneous, in terms of BCR-ABL1 level and proliferation. Thus, several clones of CML-iPSCs are a powerful model to decipher all the mechanisms leading to LSC survival following TKI therapy and are a promising tool for testing new therapeutic agents.     

Biophysical Investigation of the Membrane-Disrupting Mechanism of the Antimicrobial and Amyloid-Like Peptide Dermaseptin S9

Dermaseptin S9 (Drs S9) is an atypical cationic antimicrobial peptide with a long hydrophobic core and with a propensity to form amyloid-like fibrils. Here we investigated its membrane interaction using a variety of biophysical techniques. Rather surprisingly, we found that Drs S9 induces efficient permeabilisation in zwitterionic phosphatidylcholine (PC) vesicles, but not in anionic phosphatidylglycerol (PG) vesicles. We also found that the peptide inserts more efficiently in PC than in PG monolayers. Therefore, electrostatic interactions between the cationic Drs S9 and anionic membranes cannot explain the selectivity of the peptide towards bacterial membranes. CD spectroscopy, electron microscopy and ThT fluorescence experiments showed that the peptide adopts slightly more β-sheet and has a higher tendency to form amyloid-like fibrils in the presence of PC membranes as compared to PG membranes. Thus, induction of leakage may be related to peptide aggregation. The use of a pre-incorporation protocol to reduce peptide/peptide interactions characteristic of aggregates in solution resulted in more α-helix formation and a more pronounced effect on the cooperativity of the gel-fluid lipid phase transition in all lipid systems tested. Calorimetric data together with ²H- and ³¹P-NMR experiments indicated that the peptide has a significant impact on the dynamic organization of lipid bilayers, albeit slightly less for zwitterionic than for anionic membranes. Taken together, our data suggest that in particular in membranes of zwitterionic lipids the peptide binds in an aggregated state resulting in membrane leakage. We propose that also the antimicrobial activity of Drs S9 may be a result of binding of the peptide in an aggregated state, but that specific binding and aggregation to bacterial membranes is regulated not by anionic lipids but by as yet unknown factors.     

Preferential Binding of Hot Spot Mutant p53 Proteins to Supercoiled DNA In Vitro and in Cells

Hot spot mutant p53 (mutp53) proteins exert oncogenic gain-of-function activities. Binding of mutp53 to DNA is assumed to be involved in mutp53-mediated repression or activation of several mutp53 target genes. To investigate the importance of DNA topology on mutp53-DNA recognition in vitro and in cells, we analyzed the interaction of seven hot spot mutp53 proteins with topologically different DNA substrates (supercoiled, linear and relaxed) containing and/or lacking mutp53 binding sites (mutp53BS) using a variety of electrophoresis and immunoprecipitation based techniques. All seven hot spot mutp53 proteins (R175H, G245S, R248W, R249S, R273C, R273H and R282W) were found to have retained the ability of wild-type p53 to preferentially bind circular DNA at native negative superhelix density, while linear or relaxed circular DNA was a poor substrate. The preference of mutp53 proteins for supercoiled DNA (supercoil-selective binding) was further substantiated by competition experiments with linear DNA or relaxed DNA in vitro and ex vivo. Using chromatin immunoprecipitation, the preferential binding of mutp53 to a sc mutp53BS was detected also in cells. Furthermore, we have shown by luciferase reporter assay that the DNA topology influences p53 regulation of BAX and MSP/MST1 promoters. Possible modes of mutp53 binding to topologically constrained DNA substrates and their biological consequences are discussed.