Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution

Species distribution modelling has been widely applied in order to assess the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Many methodological decisions, taken during the modelling process and forecasts, may, however, lead to a large variability in the assessment of future impacts. Using measures of species range change and turnover, the potential impacts of climate change on French stream fish species and assemblages were evaluated. Our main focus was to quantify the uncertainty in the projections of these impacts arising from four sources of uncertainty: initial datasets (Data), statistical methods [species distribution models (SDM)], general circulation models (GCM), and gas emission scenarios (GES). Several modalities of the aforementioned uncertainty sources were combined in an ensemble forecasting framework resulting in 8400 different projections. The variance explained by each source was then extracted from this whole ensemble of projections. Overall, SDM contributed to the largest variation in projections, followed by GCM, whose contribution increased over time equalling almost the proportion of variance explained by SDM in 2080. Data and GES had little influence on the variability in projections. Future projections of range change were more consistent for species with a large geographical extent (i.e., distribution along latitudinal or stream gradients) or with restricted environmental requirements (i.e., small thermal or elevation ranges). Variability in projections of turnover was spatially structured at the scale of France, indicating that certain particular geographical areas should be considered with care when projecting the potential impacts of climate change. The results of this study, therefore, emphasized that particular attention should be paid to the use of predictions ensembles resulting from the application of several statistical methods and climate models. Moreover, forecasted impacts of climate change should always be provided with an assessment of their uncertainty, so that management and conservation decisions can be taken in the full knowledge of their reliability.     

Assimilation and oxygen uptake associated with two different feeding habits of Munida gregaria (=M. subrugosa) (Crustacea, Decapoda)

Munida gregaria is the most abundant galatheid crab species in the Beagle Channel (55 °S 68 °W) off Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. This species has two different and simultaneous feeding habits: predator and deposit feeder. The objectives of this work were to determine whether either of the two different feeding habits imply differences in assimilation and oxygen consumption. Subsamples of 40 and 20 crabs of each sex were randomly selected, transported to the laboratory, and used in assimilation and oxygen consumption experiments, respectively. Animals were placed in individual chambers at 8 ± 1 °C. The assimilation experiment was conducted using four types of diet: isopods (CRU), algae (ALG), pulverized fish food (PFF), and particulate organic matter (POM). The crabs' routine metabolism and postprandial oxygen consumption - or specific dynamic action SDA - were measured using Clark-type polarographic electrodes. Two kinds of food were offered: CRU and PFF to simulate both feeding habits. Assimilation in M. gregaria for both feeding habits presented values > 90% for dry mass and energetic content. Consumption rate varied between 15 and 50 mg_ingested g_DM^− 1, and was significantly higher for CRU and PFF diets. Females showed significantly higher consumption rates than males for all diets. On average, the routine metabolism of M. gregaria was 15 ± 5 μlO₂ h^− 1 g^− 1. Deposit feeding may confer energetic advantages to female M. gregaria, especially because this diet has a low energetic cost of assimilation. Deposits of high-energy content showed the highest consumption rates among four the experimental diets. In terms of mass and energy, the deposit diet also showed the highest assimilation efficiency. The postprandial oxygen consumption was lower in females and in the deposit feeding experiment. We suggest that females may prefer the deposit feeding habit to maximize their ingested energy, allowing them to devote more energy to reproduction. This is attained by a high consumption rate and by minimizing the energy used in assimilation.     

Differential growth of the barnacle Notobalanus flosculus (Archaeobalanidae) onto artificial and live substrates in the Beagle Channel, Argentina

In the Beagle Channel, southern South America (ca. 55°S 67°W), about 20% of false king crabs (Paralomis granulosa) >80 mm carapace length are fouled with the barnacle Notobalanus flosculus. To evaluate differences in growth rates of barnacles attached to artificial and live substrates, clay tiles were anchored as collectors to the bottom at two different sites in the Beagle Channel in September 1996: in Ushuaia harbour (low currents and high levels of suspended matter) and around the Bridges Islands (strong currents and low level of suspended matter). Another set of collectors was deployed at the same sites in October 1998 to collect barnacles for histological studies. Tiles were removed from each place, approximately, on a monthly basis. Carapaces of P. granulosa with the epizoic N. flosculus were sampled between November 1996 and 1997, and between March 1998 and September 1999, to study sexual maturation of barnacles. Growth of barnacles was compared between the collectors and P. granulosa carapaces following a qualitative approach. A sexual maturity scale was defined, based on the stage of development of the female reproductive apparatus of N. flosculus. Growth rate of barnacles was highest in the harbour, intermediate on P. granulosa, and lowest around the Bridges Islands. Presence of oocytes was registered only in epizoic barnacles, suggesting that at least a proportion of these individuals is able to spawn on the carapaces. The potential advantages of settling on a living substrate, namely increased availability of food particles and decreased predation risks are discussed.     

家庭氧疗配合呼吸操治疗慢性阻塞性肺疾病患者的疗效

目的：观察长期家庭氧疗配合呼吸操治疗慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）的临床效果。、方法：选择本院收治的COPD患者80例,随机分为研究组和对照组,各40例,两组均给予常规治疗,研究组同时由医务人员指导给予家庭氧疗和呼吸操训练,随访1年．观察两组治疗前、治疗后6个月和1年肺功能,应用StGeorge’S呼吸问卷（SGRQ）评价生存质量、结果：研究组1年内急性发作1次5人,2次2人,3次及以上1人,对照组1年内急性发作1次9人,2次7人,3次及以上4人（P〈0．05）;研究组治疗后6个月、1年用力肺活量（FVC）、第1秒用力呼气容积（FEVl）和FEVl／FVC均明显升高（P〈0．05）,对照组治疗后6个月、1年FVC、FEVI／FVC与治疗前比较无统计学差异（P〉0．05）;研究组治疗后6个月、1年SGRQ明显降低（P〈0．05）,对照组治疗后6个月、1年SGRQ与治疗前比较无统计学差异（P〉0．05）．结论：家庭氧疗配合呼吸操能明显改善COPD患者肺功能,延缓患者肺功能恶化,提高患者生存质量。     

三种抗癫痫药对癫痫患者脑电图的背景影响比较研究

目的：研究对比三种抗癫痫药（苯妥因钠、丙戊酸钠、卡马西平）对癫痫患者脑电图的背景影响。方法：选取我院于2009年3月至2011年2月收治的60例癫痫患者,随机分为苯妥因钠（PHT）、卡马西平（CBZ）和丙戊酸钠（SVP）组各20例,动态观察各组患者于治疗期间痫样波放电的频度和EEG背景的变化。结果：EEG痫样波放电的抑制率以SVP最为明显,而CBZ在EEG背景活动影响方面均比其他两组显著。结论：三种药物对癫痫波放电的抑制顺序是SVP〉PHT〉CBZ,SVP组明显优于其他两组。     

HOW AND WHEN DO LAMBS RECOGNIZE THE BLEATS OF THEIR MOTHERS?

ABSTRACT

In domestic sheep Ovis aries, the mother and the young display a preferential bond for each other that relies on multimodal inter-individual recognition. Lambs show a preference for their own dam shortly after birth, and this is important for their survival. The role of acoustic cues in this early preference for the mother is not clear. The aim of the present work was to analyze the timing of acoustic recognition of the mother and to identify the physical parameters used in the recognition of maternal bleats by the lamb.

In a first study, we investigated the ability of lambs to discriminate between the bleats of their own mother and an alien equivalent mother in a two-choice test. Both ewes were hidden behind a canvas sheet and lambs were not allowed to approach the dams closer than 1 m, thus preventing visual as well as olfactory perception. Tests were conducted 12 hr, 24 hr or 48 hr after birth (n=19 or 20/group). An indication of vocal discrimination was already present at 24 hr and at 48 hr lambs spent significantly more time near their mother than near the alien dam.

In a second step, we investigated which physical parameters of the bleats were important for recognition. For this, we conducted playback experiments with modified bleats at two weeks postpartum. Ours results show that lambs pay attention to a combination of various time, energy and frequency parameters: timbre (distribution of energy within the spectrum), amplitude and frequency modulations appear to be the most important parameters encoding the individual signature.

We conclude that vocal recognition between the ewe and her lamb plays an important role in the display of preferential mother-young bond from very early on. Our studies also demonstrate that the encoding of the individual signature is not limited to the frequency domain but rather involves a multiparametric encoding process.     

A widespread plant-fungal-bacterial symbiosis promotes plant biodiversity,plant nutrition and seedling recruitment

Highly diverse microbial assemblages colonize plant roots. It is still poorly understood whether different members of this root microbiome act synergistically by supplying different services (for example, different limiting nutrients) to plants and plant communities. In order to test this, we manipulated the presence of two widespread plant root symbionts, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and nitrogen-fixing rhizobia bacteria in model grassland communities established in axenic microcosms. Here, we demonstrate that both symbionts complement each other resulting in increased plant diversity, enhanced seedling recruitment and improved nutrient acquisition compared with a single symbiont situation. Legume seedlings obtained up to 15-fold higher productivity if they formed an association with both symbionts, opposed to productivity they reached with only one symbiont. Our results reveal the importance of functional diversity of symbionts and demonstrate that different members of the root microbiome can complement each other in acquiring different limiting nutrients and in driving important ecosystem functions.     

Effect of aerial exposure on the antioxidant status in the subantarctic stone crab Paralomis granulosa (Decapoda: Anomura)

In Tierra del Fuego (Southern South America), the stone or false king crab, Paralomis granulosa represents one of the most important crab fisheries. After capture, animals are kept in baskets and exposed to dryness for several hours, when the water flow through the gills is interrupted. As a consequence a concomitant increase of reactive oxygen species begins, triggering oxidative stress. The aim of this study was to determine oxidative stress and antioxidant enzyme activities due to air exposure in different tissues of P. granulosa. Fifty crabs (carapace length >82 mm) were captured in Beagle Channel (54 degrees 50'S, 68 degrees 20'W) during winter 2004. Five groups of 10 crabs each were exposed to dryness at 6 degrees C for 0, 3, 6, 12 or 24 h, respectively. Activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), glutathione S transferase (GST) protein and lipid oxidation were measured in gills, muscle, hepatopancreas and haemolymph samples. Almost all analyzed tissues showed antioxidant enzymes activity, which varied with time of air exposure. The maximum enzyme activity was measured after 6 h of air exposure. Protein oxidation levels varied significantly in gills. Lipid peroxidation levels increased significantly in muscle and hepatopancreas. The critical time of air exposure probably occurs at 6 h. Thereafter animals were unable to induce the synthesis of antioxidant enzymes or proteins. This should be taken into account to minimize the stress generated by the commercial capture process.