Cumulative risk adjusted mortality chart for detecting changes in death rate: observational study of heart surgery

Objective: To detect changes in mortality after surgery, with allowance being made for variations in case mix. Design: Observational study of postoperative mortality from January 1992 to August 1995. Setting: Regional cardiothoracic unit. Subjects: 3983 patients aged 16 and over who had open heart operations. Main outcome measures: Preoperative risk factors and postoperative mortality in hospital within 30 days were recorded for all surgical heart operations. Mortality was adjusted for case mix using a preoperative estimate of risk based on additive Parsonnet factors. The number of operations required for statistical power to detect a doubling of mortality was examined, and control limits at a nominal significance level of P=0.01 for detection of an adverse trend were determined. Results: Total mortality of 7.0% was 26% below the Parsonnet predictor (P<0.0001). There was a highly significant variation in annual case mix (Parsonnet scores 8.7-10.6, P<0.0001). There was no significant variation in mortality after adjustment for case mix (odds ratio 1-1.5, P=0.18) with monitoring by calendar year. With continuous monitoring, however, nominal 99% control limits based on 16 expected deaths were crossed on two occasions. Conclusions: Hospital league tables for mortality from heart surgery will be of limited value because year to year differences in death rate can be large (odds ratio 1.5) even when the underlying risk or case mix does not change. Statistical quality control of a single series with adjustment for case mix is the only way to take into account recent performance when informing a patient of the risk of surgery at a particular hospital. If there is an increase in the number of deaths the chances of the next patient surviving surgery can be calculated from the last 16 deaths.

Key messages

• Changes in the patient population affect a hospital’s annual death rate
• Year to year differences in death rate can be large even when there is no change in the underlying risk or case mix
• It takes surprisingly many operations before an increase in death rate can be distinguished from random fluctuation
• A formal inquiry should take place in a hospital if the death rate rises above control limits
• The chances of the next patient surviving surgery should be calculated using the surgeon’s most recent results

     

Changes in maternal investment in eggs can affect population dynamics

The way that mothers provision their offspring can have important consequences for their offspring's performance throughout life. Models suggest that maternally induced variation in life histories may have large population dynamical effects, even perhaps driving cycles such as those seen in forest Lepidoptera. The evidence for large maternal influences on population dynamics is unconvincing, principally because of the difficulty of conducting experiments at both the individual and population level. In the soil mite, Sancassania berlesei, we show that there is a trade-off between a female's fecundity and the per-egg provisioning of protein. The mother's position on this trade-off depends on her current food availability and her age. Populations initiated with 250 eggs of different mean sizes showed significant differences in the population dynamics, converging only after three generations. Differences in the growth, maturation and fecundity of the initial cohort caused differences in the competitive environment for the next generation, which, in turn, created differences in their growth and reproduction. Maternal effects in one generation can therefore lead to population dynamical consequences over many generations. Where animals live in environments that are temporally variable, we conjecture that maternal effects could result in long-term dynamical effects.     

The PINE study: rationale and design of a randomised comparison of epidural injection of local anaesthetics and steroids versus care-as-usual to prevent postherpetic neuralgia in the elderly [ISRCTN32866390]

BACKGROUND: Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) is by far the most common complication of herpes zoster (HZ) and one of the most intractable pain disorders. Since PHN is seen most often in the elderly, the number of patients with this disorder is expected to increase in our ageing society. PHN may last for months to years and has a high impact on the quality of life. The results of PHN treatment are rather disappointing. Epidural injection of local anaesthetics and steroids in the acute phase of HZ is a promising therapy for the prevention of PHN. Since randomised trials on the effectiveness of this intervention are lacking, the PINE (Prevention by epidural Injection of postherpetic Neuralgia in the Elderly) study was set up. The PINE study compares the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a single epidural injection of local anaesthetics and steroids during the acute phase of HZ with that of care-as-usual (i.e. antivirals and analgesics) in preventing PHN in elderly patients. METHODS / DESIGN: The PINE study is an open, multicenter clinical trial in which 550 elderly (age >/= 50 yr.) patients who consult their general practitioner in the acute phase of HZ (rash < 7 days) are randomised to one of the treatment groups. The primary clinical endpoint is the presence of HZ-related pain one month after the onset of the rash. Secondary endpoints include duration and severity of pain, re-interventions aiming to treat the existing pain, side effects, quality of life, and cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSION: The PINE study is aimed to quantify the (cost-) effectiveness of a single epidural injection during the acute phase of HZ on the prevention of PHN.     

High mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) and anti-HMGB1 antibodies and their relation to disease characteristics in systemic lupus erythematosus

Introduction  

High Mobility Group Box 1 (HMGB1) is a nuclear non-histone protein. HMGB1, which is secreted by inflammatory cells and passively released from apoptotic and necrotic cells, may act as a pro-inflammatory mediator. As apoptotic cells accumulate in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), HMGB1 levels might be increased in SLE. HMGB1 may also serve as an autoantigen, leading to the production of anti-HMGB1 antibodies. In this study we determined levels of HMGB1 and anti-HMGB1 in SLE patients in comparison to healthy controls (HC) and analysed their relation with disease activity.     

Directed evolution and targeted mutagenesis to murinize <Emphasis Type="Italic">listeria monocytogenes</Emphasis> internalin A for enhanced infectivity in the murine oral infection model

Background  

Internalin A (InlA) is a critical virulence factor which mediates the initiation of Listeria monocytogenes infection by the oral route in permissive hosts. The interaction of InlA with the host cell ligand E-cadherin efficiently stimulates L. monocytogenes entry into human enterocytes, but has only a limited interaction with murine cells.     

Intrathecal long-term gene expression by self-complementary adeno-associated virus type 1 suitable for chronic pain studies in rats

Background

Intrathecal (IT) gene transfer is an attractive approach for targeting spinal mechanisms of nociception but the duration of gene expression achieved by reported methods is short (up to two weeks) impairing their utility in the chronic pain setting. The overall goal of this study was to develop IT gene transfer yielding true long-term transgene expression defined as ≥ 3 mo following a single vector administration. We defined "IT" administration as atraumatic injection into the lumbar cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) modeling a lumbar puncture. Our studies focused on recombinant adeno-associated virus (rAAV), one of the most promising vector types for clinical use.

Results

Conventional single stranded rAAV2 vectors performed poorly after IT delivery in rats. Pseudotyping of rAAV with capsids of serotypes 1, 3, and 5 was tested alone or in combination with a modification of the inverted terminal repeat. The former alters vector tropism and the latter allows packaging of self-complementary rAAV (sc-rAAV) vectors. Combining both types of modification led to the identification of sc-rAAV2/l as a vector that performed superiorly in the IT space. IT delivery of 3 × 10e9 sc-rAAV2/l particles per animal led to stable expression of enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) for ≥ 3 mo detectable by Western blotting, quantitative PCR, and in a blinded study by confocal microscopy. Expression was strongest in the cauda equina and the lower sections of the spinal cord and only minimal in the forebrain. Microscopic examination of the SC fixed in situ with intact nerve roots and meninges revealed strong EGFP fluorescence in the nerve roots.

Conclusion

sc-rAAVl mediates stable IT transgene expression for ≥ 3 mo. Our findings support the underlying hypothesis that IT target cells for gene transfer lack the machinery for efficient conversion of the single-stranded rAAV genome into double-stranded DNA and favor uptake of serotype 1 vectors over 2. Experiments presented here will provide a rational basis for utilizing IT rAAV gene transfer in basic and translational studies on chronic pain.     

Scleroderma-polymyositis overlap syndrome versus idiopathic polymyositis and systemic sclerosis: a descriptive study on clinical features and myopathology

Introduction

The objective was to characterize the clinical and myopathologic features of patients with scleroderma-polymyositis (SSc-PM) overlap compared with a population of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) and polymyositis (PM).

Methods

A three-way comparison of patients with SSc-PM overlap (n = 25) with patients with SSc (n = 397) and PM (n = 40) on clinical and myopathologic features and causes of death. One neuropathologist blinded for the diagnosis evaluated all recent available muscle biopsies. Biopsies were scored for presence of inflammation, necrotic muscle fibers, rimmed vacuoles, fibrosis, and immunohistochemical staining. Clinical or myopathologic characteristics were compared by using the χ² test or one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA).

Results

The prevalence of SSc-PM overlap in the Nijmegen Systemic Sclerosis cohort was 5.9%. The mortality was 32% (eight of 25) in SSc-PM, of which half was related to cardiac diseases. The prevalence of pulmonary fibrosis was significantly increased in SSc-PM (83%) (P = 0.04) compared with SSc (49%) and PM (53%). SSc or myositis-specific antibodies were nearly absent in the SSc-PM group. In almost all biopsies (96%) of SSc-PM patients, necrotic muscle fibers were present, which was significantly increased compared with PM patients (P = 0.02).

Conclusions

Patients with SSc-PM have increased prevalence of pulmonary fibrosis and cardiac disease as the cause of death compared with patients with SSc and PM . In addition, we found that necrotizing muscle fibers with inflammation characterize SSc-PM overlap in muscle biopsies. Further research should focus on underlying mechanisms causing necrosis, inflammation, and fibrosis and their relation to pulmonary involvement and mortality in patients with SSc-PM overlap.