Primary production dynamics and climate variability: ecological consequences in semiarid Chile

Increase in rainfall variability has important consequences for organisms in arid and semiarid regions around the world. In South American and Australian deserts, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon greatly influences rainfall patterns, and therefore the dynamics of plant communities. However, the field data needed to assess the effect of climate change on vegetational patterns is difficult to obtain because of the large spatial scale required for such studies. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) characteristics allow the use of several indexes related to vegetational structure. Due to its direct relationship with primary productivity, it is possible to obtain several measures of annual productivity. These include annual plant yield, annual maximum yield, onset of 'greening-up' and senescence phases, length of the 'green' season, vegetation peak, and therefore, the periods when more or less food is available for herbivores. After verification with ground-truth measures, we used NDVI data from two semiarid localities in north-central Chile (Fray Jorge and Aucó) to determine the relationship between rainfall patterns and vegetation cover and productivity related to El Niño phenomenon. With this information we gauge the influence of climatic processes on primary productivity in western South America, an area subject to strong climate variability. We predict significant variation in Chilean semiarid regions due to climate change, affecting mainly the extent and timing of annual growth season of vegetation, and also including a shorter and delayed greening-up season. Also, we predict that important decreases in rainfall levels will not have strong effects on primary production in these semiarid ecosystems.     

A new Spanish species of Linaria Miller (Scrophulariaceae)

Linaria arabiniana sp. nov. is described from coastal sand dunes of a very reduced area in Alicante Province (south-eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula). It is a perennial herb characterized by its 3–4-verticillate leaves, glabrous stems, large violet or rarely yellow flowers, and bicoloured usually flat seeds. Morphological characteristics and taxonomic affinities of this taxon are discussed, as are data on its ecology, phytosociology, and eventual conservation features.     

Similar breakdown rates and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages on native and Eucalyptus globulus leaf litter in Californian streams

1. Eucalyptus globulus, a tree species planted worldwide in many riparian zones, has been reported to affect benthic macroinvertebrates negatively. Although there is no consensus about the effects of Eucalyptus on aquatic macrobenthos, its removal is sometimes proposed as a means of ecological restoration. 2. We combined the sampling of macroinvertebrates with measurement of the colonisation of leaf packs in mesh bags, to examine the effects of riparian Eucalyptus and its litter on benthic macroinvertebrates in three small streams in California, U.S.A. Each stream included one reach bordered by Eucalyptus (E‐site) and a second bordered by native vegetation (N‐site). 3. The macrobenthos was sampled and two sets of litter bags were deployed at each site: one set with Eucalyptus litter (Euc‐bags) and one with mixed native tree litter (Nat‐bags) containing Quercus, Umbellularia, Acer and Alnus. Bags were exposed for 28, 56 and 90 days and this experiment was repeated in the autumn, winter and spring to account for effects of changing stream flow and insect phenology. 4. Litter input (average dry mass: 950 g m^?2 year^?1 in E‐sites versus 669 g m^?2 year^?1 in N‐sites) was similar, although in‐stream litter composition differed between E‐ and N‐sites. Litter broke down at similar rates in Euc‐bags and Nat‐bags (0.0193 day^?1 versus 0.0134 day^?1), perhaps reflecting the refractory nature of some of the leaves of the native trees (Quercus agrifolia). 5. Summary metrics for macroinvertebrates (taxon richness, Shannon diversity, pollution tolerance index) did not differ significantly between the E and N sites, or between Euc‐bags and Nat‐bags. No effect of exposure time or site was detected by ordination of the taxa sampled. However, distinct seasonal ordination clusters were observed in winter, spring and autumn, and one of the three streams formed a separate cluster. 6. The presence of Eucalyptus was less important in explaining the taxonomic composition of the macrobenthos than either ‘season’ or ‘stream’. Similarly, these same two factors (but not litter species) also helped explain the variation in leaf breakdown. We conclude that patches of riparian Eucalyptus and its litter have little effect on stream macrobenthos in this region.     

Quasi-likelihood estimation for relative risk regression models

For a prospective randomized clinical trial with two groups, the relative risk can be used as a measure of treatment effect and is directly interpretable as the ratio of success probabilities in the new treatment group versus the placebo group. For a prospective study with many covariates and a binary outcome (success or failure), relative risk regression may be of interest. If we model the log of the success probability as a linear function of covariates, the regression coefficients are log-relative risks. However, using such a log-linear model with a Bernoulli likelihood can lead to convergence problems in the Newton-Raphson algorithm. This is likely to occur when the success probabilities are close to one. A constrained likelihood method proposed by Wacholder (1986, American Journal of Epidemiology 123, 174-184), also has convergence problems. We propose a quasi-likelihood method of moments technique in which we naively assume the Bernoulli outcome is Poisson, with the mean (success probability) following a log-linear model. We use the Poisson maximum likelihood equations to estimate the regression coefficients without constraints. Using method of moment ideas, one can show that the estimates using the Poisson likelihood will be consistent and asymptotically normal. We apply these methods to a double-blinded randomized trial in primary biliary cirrhosis of the liver (Markus et al., 1989, New England Journal of Medicine 320, 1709-1713).     

Is Cupressus sempervirens native in Italy? An answer from genetic and palaeobotanical data

This study represents the first large-scale analysis using nuclear molecular markers to assess genetic diversity and structure of Cupressus sempervirens L.. Genetic and fossil data were combined to infer the possible role of human activity and evolutionary history in shaping the diversity of cypress populations. We analysed 30 populations with six polymorphic nuclear microsatellite markers. Dramatic reductions in heterozygosity and allelic richness were observed from east to west across the species range. Structure analysis assigned individuals to two main groups separating central Mediterranean and eastern populations. The two main groups could be further divided into five subgroups which showed the following geographical distributions: Turkey with the Greek islands Rhodes and Samos, Greece (Crete), Southern Italy, Northern Italy, Tunisia with Central Italy. This pattern of genetic structure is also supported by samova and Barrier analyses. Palaeobotanical data indicated that Cupressus was present in Italy in the Pliocene, Pleistocene and Holocene. Furthermore, our molecular survey showed that Italian cypress populations experienced bottlenecks that resulted in reduced genetic diversity and allelic richness and greater genetic differentiation. Recent colonization or introduction may also have influenced levels of diversity detected in the Italian populations, as most individuals found in this range today have multilocus genotypes that are also present in the eastern range of the species. The data reveal a new interpretation of the history of cypress distribution characterized by ancient eastern populations (Turkey and Greek islands) and a mosaic of recently introduced trees and remnants of ancient, depauperate populations in the central Mediterranean range.