Estimating the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the United States using influenza surveillance,virologic testing,and mortality data: Four complementary approaches

Effectively designing and evaluating public health responses to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic requires accurate estimation of the prevalence of COVID-19 across the United States (US). Equipment shortages and varying testing capabilities have however hindered the usefulness of the official reported positive COVID-19 case counts. We introduce four complementary approaches to estimate the cumulative incidence of symptomatic COVID-19 in each state in the US as well as Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia, using a combination of excess influenza-like illness reports, COVID-19 test statistics, COVID-19 mortality reports, and a spatially structured epidemic model. Instead of relying on the estimate from a single data source or method that may be biased, we provide multiple estimates, each relying on different assumptions and data sources. Across our four approaches emerges the consistent conclusion that on April 4, 2020, the estimated case count was 5 to 50 times higher than the official positive test counts across the different states. Nationally, our estimates of COVID-19 symptomatic cases as of April 4 have a likely range of 2.3 to 4.8 million, with possibly as many as 7.6 million cases, up to 25 times greater than the cumulative confirmed cases of about 311,000. Extending our methods to May 16, 2020, we estimate that cumulative symptomatic incidence ranges from 4.9 to 10.1 million, as opposed to 1.5 million positive test counts. The proposed combination of approaches may prove useful in assessing the burden of COVID-19 during resurgences in the US and other countries with comparable surveillance systems.     

Cationic (tripyrrinato)palladium(II) complexes

The formation of cationic palladium(II)complexes [TrpyPd^II]⁺X⁻ by salt metathesis of the respective trifluoroacetates with different salts of weakly coordinating anions X⁻ was investigated. With non-hydrolizable counterions, cationic mono- and dinuclear complexes are observed depending on the nature of the anion X⁻ and the solvent. The mononuclear cations, which are only formed with X = BAr^F, most probably carry a weakly bound molecule of dichloromethane at the fourth coordination site of Pd^II. When treated with diazoalkanes, only these are sufficiently reactive to form carbene complexes. Four- and five coordinate Lewis base adducts [TrpyPd^IIL]⁺ with L = CH₃NC, tBuNH₂, PMe₃, PEt₃ and PiPr₃ and [TrpyPd^IIL₂]⁺ with L = PMe₃ were prepared from the mononuclear cations [TrpyPd^II]⁺BAr^F−. From structural studies it becomes apparent, that the formation of stable five coordinate Pd^II species is restricted to medium size ligands and depends on the delicate balance between the steric influence of L and the strain, which is induced on the TrpyPd^II unit.     

Characterization of Caenorhabditis Elegans Lectin-Binding Mutants

We have identified 45 mutants of Caenorhabditis elegans that show ectopic surface binding of the lectins wheat germ agglutinin (WGA) and soybean agglutinin (SBA). These mutations are all recessive and define six genes: srf-2, srf-3, srf-4, srf-5, srf-8 and srf-9. Mutations in these genes fall into two phenotypic classes: srf-2, -3, -5 mutants are grossly wild-type, except for their lectin-binding phenotype; srf-4, -8, -9 mutants have a suite of defects, including uncoordinated movement, abnormal egg laying, and defective copulatory bursae morphogenesis. Characterization of these pleiotropic mutants at the cellular level reveals defects in the migration of the gonadal distal tip cell and in axon morphology. Unexpectedly, the pleiotropic mutations also interact with mutations in the lin-12 gene, which encodes a putative cell surface receptor involved in the control of cell fate. We propose that the underlying defect in the pleiotropic mutations may be in the general processing or secretion of extracellular proteins.     

Sid4p-Cdc11p assembles the septation initiation network and its regulators at the S. pombe SPB

The Schizosaccharomyces pombe septation initiation network (SIN) triggers actomyosin ring constriction, septation, and cell division. It is organized at the spindle pole body (SPB) by the scaffold proteins Sid4p and Cdc11p. Here, we dissect the contributions of Sid4p and Cdc11p in anchoring SIN components and SIN regulators to the SPB. We find that Sid4p interacts with the SIN activator, Plo1p, in addition to Cdc11p and Dma1p. While the C terminus of Cdc11p is involved in binding Sid4p, its N-terminal half is involved in a wide variety of direct protein-protein interactions, including those with Spg1p, Sid2p, Cdc16p, and Cdk1p-Cdc13p. Given that the localizations of the remaining SIN components depend on Spg1p or Cdc16p, these data allow us to build a comprehensive model of SIN component organization at the SPB. FRAP experiments indicate that Sid4p and Cdc11p are stable SPB components, whereas signaling components of the SIN are dynamically associated with these structures. Our results suggest that the Sid4p-Cdc11p complex organizes a signaling hub on the SPB and that this hub coordinates cell and nuclear division.     

Protein- und RNS-Gehalt des Hypokotyls beim stationären Wachstum im Dunkeln und unter dem Einfluß von Phytochrom (Keimlinge von Sinapis alba L.)

Zusammenfassung Das Wachstum des Hypokotyls wurde an Restkeimlingen ohne Kotyledonen (Abb. 1) untersucht. Die Wachstumsgeschwindigkeit ist in dem von uns untersuchten Zeitraum sowohl im Dunkeln als auch unter dem Einfluß von P₇₃₀ (Dauer-Dunkelrot) praktisch konstant. Obgleich sich die Wachstumsgeschwindigkeiten im Dunkeln und im Dauer-Dunkelrot um den Faktor 4 unterscheiden, hat das Dunkelrot keinen signifikanten Einfluß auf den Gesamt-Proteingehalt des Hypokotyls (bzw. der durchschnittlichen Hypokotylzelle). Der Proteingehalt nimmt im Dunkeln und im Licht kontinuierlich ab. Auch der Gesamt-RNS-Gehalt zeigt innerhalb des Versuchszeitraums eine Abnahme, die unter dem Einfluß von Dunkelrot früher einsetzt als im Dunkeln. — Man kann aus den Daten der vorliegenden Arbeit schließen, daß nur ein kleiner Teil des Gesamt-Proteins und der Gesamt-RNS einer Zelle mit dem Zellwachstum unmittelbar in Verbindung gebracht werden kann.

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Protein and RNA contents of the hypocotyl during steady state growth lengthening in the dark and under the influence of phytochrome (seedlings of sinapis alba L.)

Summary Inhibition of hypocotyl lengthening by phytochrome can be regarded as a prototype of a negative photoresponse. The hypothesis has been advanced (Schopfer, 1967) that negative photoresponses are the consequence of a differential gene repression which is exerted by P₇₃₀, the active phytochrome. This hypothesis is mainly based on experiments with specific inhibitors of RNA- and protein synthesis. —The present paper is part of an experimental program which has been designed to check this hypothesis.—Continuous irradiation with standard far-red has been used to establish a virtually stationary concentration of P₇₃₀ over the whole period of experimentation (36–60 hours after sowing). To correlate more strictly the growth response of the hypocotyl with molecular changes in this organ the axis system without cotyledons has been used (Fig. 1). Even under these conditions the growth rate of the hypocotyl is nearly constant in light (continuous far-red) and dark during the whole period of experimentation (36–60 hours after sowing) (Fig. 2, 3). It is known from earlier experiments that cell division in the hypocotyl are very rare during this period and that there is virtually no increase in the DNA contents of the organ during the period of our experimentation (Weidner, 1967). Obviously the number of cells per hypocotyl is virtually constant between 36 and 60 hours after sowing. Organ (i.e. hypocotyl) lengthening is nearly exclusively due to cellular lengthening.—If we follow the protein contents of the hypocotyl we find (Fig. 4) that the total protein of the organ decreases steadily in spite of the fact that the organ grows at a constant rate. There is no significant difference in protein contents between dark-grown and far-red grown systems although the growth rates differ by a factor of 4 (Fig. 2, 3).—The situation is some-what different with respect to total RNA (Fig. 5). The RNA contents eventually decrease in far-red as well as in dark-grown systems but the decrease is significantly faster in the far-red treated systems than in the dark controls.—It is concluded that only a very small part of the total RNA and total protein of a cell can be related to the control of cellular growth. Changes in bulk RNA and bulk protein obviously do not necessarily reflect changes in the growth rate or growth capacity of an organ or a cell.

     

鼠李糖乳杆菌LV108及其发酵乳免疫调节作用的比较

目的 探讨鼠李糖乳杆菌LV108及其发酵乳对免疫抑制小鼠免疫功能的调节作用。 方法 将BALB/c小鼠随机分为5组,每组10只,即空白组(正常小鼠)、模型组(免疫抑制小鼠)、药物组(免疫抑制小鼠食物中添加左旋咪唑)、LV108菌悬液组(免疫抑制小鼠食物中添加LV108菌悬液)和LV108发酵乳组(免疫抑制小鼠食物中添加LV108发酵乳),除空白组外其余组构建免疫抑制小鼠模型。干预4周后,分别测定各组小鼠体质量和脏器指数,血清中白细胞介素2(IL2)、肿瘤坏死因子α(TNFα)和免疫球蛋白G(IgG)含量,血清溶血素含量、耳肿胀度和肝、脾巨噬细胞吞噬能力。 结果 相比模型组,LV108菌悬液组和LV108发酵乳组小鼠体质量增长速度、脏器指数、血清IL2与IgG水平、血清溶血值、耳肿胀度和巨噬细胞吞噬能力显著升高(均P结论 LV108菌体及发酵乳对免疫抑制小鼠具备较全面的免疫调节作用,均可提高小鼠的自身免疫力;LV108发酵乳对小鼠的免疫调节作用强于LV108菌体。     

Consequences of early chilling stress in two Triticum species: plastic responses and adaptive significance

Phenotypic plasticity of two primitive wheat species (Triticum monococcum L. and Triticum dicoccum S.) was studied in response to early chilling stress. Selection pressure differentials, gradients and plasticity costs on plant morphogenesis, growth and reserve carbohydrate consumption were estimated. Regression analysis was applied to investigate differential developmental changes and patterns between treatments. Four‐day‐old seedlings of T. monococcum and T. dicoccum, differing in plant stature and reserve carbohydrates, were given an early chilling temperature (4 °C for 42 day) and compared with control plants grown at 23 °C. Early chilling stress resulted in a significant increase in leaf mass ratio (LMR) and relative growth rate (RGR), a reduction in flag leaf size, total biomass, specific leaf area (SLA) and reserve carbohydrate storage at flowering, together with advanced onset of flowering. Selection pressure within the early chilling environment favoured early flowering, smaller SLA, higher LMR and lower reserve carbohydrates, suggesting the observed responses were adaptive. Furthermore, a regression of daily cumulative plant biomass derived from a crop growth simulation model (CERES‐Wheat) on crop vegetation period revealed a divergent developmental pattern in early‐chilled plants. Using selection pressure gradient analysis, we found similar responses among these traits, except for SLA and sucrose, indicating that these two traits have indirect effects on fitness. Thus, the total effects of SLA and reserve sucrose on relative fitness seem to be buffered via the rapid growth rate in chilled plants. While lower SLA may reduce early chilling stress effects at an individual leaf level, a higher LMR and use of reserve carbohydrates indicated that compensatory growth of chilled plants during the recovery period relied on the concerted action of altered resource allocation and reserve carbohydrate consumption. However, a significant cost of plasticity was evident only for flowering time, LMR and fructan levels in the early chilling environment. Our results demonstrate that morphological and intrinsic developmental (ontogenetic) patterns in two Triticum species respond to early chilling stress.