Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution

Species distribution modelling has been widely applied in order to assess the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Many methodological decisions, taken during the modelling process and forecasts, may, however, lead to a large variability in the assessment of future impacts. Using measures of species range change and turnover, the potential impacts of climate change on French stream fish species and assemblages were evaluated. Our main focus was to quantify the uncertainty in the projections of these impacts arising from four sources of uncertainty: initial datasets (Data), statistical methods [species distribution models (SDM)], general circulation models (GCM), and gas emission scenarios (GES). Several modalities of the aforementioned uncertainty sources were combined in an ensemble forecasting framework resulting in 8400 different projections. The variance explained by each source was then extracted from this whole ensemble of projections. Overall, SDM contributed to the largest variation in projections, followed by GCM, whose contribution increased over time equalling almost the proportion of variance explained by SDM in 2080. Data and GES had little influence on the variability in projections. Future projections of range change were more consistent for species with a large geographical extent (i.e., distribution along latitudinal or stream gradients) or with restricted environmental requirements (i.e., small thermal or elevation ranges). Variability in projections of turnover was spatially structured at the scale of France, indicating that certain particular geographical areas should be considered with care when projecting the potential impacts of climate change. The results of this study, therefore, emphasized that particular attention should be paid to the use of predictions ensembles resulting from the application of several statistical methods and climate models. Moreover, forecasted impacts of climate change should always be provided with an assessment of their uncertainty, so that management and conservation decisions can be taken in the full knowledge of their reliability.     

Compositional similarity among urban floras within and across continents: biogeographical consequences of human-mediated biotic interchange

Anthropogenic activities have weakened biogeographical barriers to dispersal resulting in the global spread and establishment of an increasing number of non‐native species. We examine the broad‐scale consequences of this phenomenon based on an analysis of compositional similarity across urban floras in the northeastern United States and Europe. We test the prediction that homogenization of species composition is uniquely defined within vs. between continents based on the time and place of origin of non‐native species. In this case, for archaeophytes and neophytes in Europe (introduced before and after ad 1500, respectively) and non‐native species originating from within and outside the United States. More species in urban floras were shared within than between continents. Within Europe, archaeophytes shared more species across urban floras compared with neophytes; strong associations were not observed for non‐native species across US urban floras. Between the two continents, non‐native species in the United States that originated from outside the United States shared species primarily with archaeophytes but also with European natives and neophytes. These results suggest that the direction of biotic interchange was unidirectional with species moving primarily from Europe to the United States with archaeophytes playing a primary and non‐native species originating from outside the two continents a secondary role as a homogenizing source. Archaeophytes, based on combination of biogeographical, evolutionary, and ecological factors in association with a long history of anthropogenic influence, appear to have played a prominent role in the continental and intercontinental homogenization of species composition. This suggests that the uniform homogenization of the Earth's biota is not imminent and is presently directed by a combination of biogeographically defined anthropogenic and historical factors.     

根据外部形态特征试论披碱草属3组植物间的系统关系

通过对披碱草属中小颖组、宽颖组和长颖组种类外部形态的观察,总结了3组植物外部形态特征的异同,探讨了形态学特征的分类学意义。同时,根据3组植物外部形态性状—花序、小穗、小花、以及内稃的演化趋势,分析了各组的演化关系和系统位置。结果表明：小颖组最原始,宽颖组较进化,长颖组最高级;小颖组可能直接派生了较进化的宽颖组,并在宽颖组的基础上进而产生了最高级的长颖组。此外,本文对披碱草属参试种的系统关系也作了一定程度的探讨,结果显示圆锥披碱草最原始,墨西哥披碱草最进化,其余参试种居于两者之间。上述研究工作为整个披碱草属系统与进化方面的探讨提供了形态学方面的理论证据。     

枯草芽孢杆菌C-D6对辣椒炭疽菌附着胞形成的抑制作用研究

【目的】研究枯草芽孢杆菌(Bacillus subtilis) C-D6菌株对辣椒炭疽菌(Colletotrichum capsici)附着胞形成的抑制作用,探索炭疽病生物防治的新途径。【方法】通过对峙培养测定C-D6菌株的抗菌活性,应用摇瓶培养结合生物测定筛选产生抗菌活性成分的最适培养基,采用硫酸铵分级沉淀、Sephadex G-75凝胶柱层析和阴离子交换层析对抗菌蛋白进行分离纯化,应用聚丙烯酰胺凝胶电泳测定蛋白分子量。【结果】C-D6菌株在PDA平板上对辣椒炭疽菌显示明显的抑制作用,其YPD培养液能完全抑制该菌的附着胞形成。摇瓶培养的结果显示C-D6菌株产生抗菌活性物质的最适培养基为YPD培养基。C-D6菌株在该培养基中培养14 h后,所形成的活性物质可完全抑制辣椒炭疽菌的附着胞形成。从该菌的YPD培养液中分离获得一个分子量为32 kD,能明显抑制辣椒炭疽菌附着胞形成的抗菌蛋白。【结论】C-D6菌株的生防特征显示该菌株对防治辣椒炭疽菌引起的炭疽病具有潜在的应用价值。     

Spectral properties of a long-wavelength absorbing form of protochlorophyll in seeds of Cyclanthera explodens

The in vivo absorbance spectrum of the inner seed coat of Cyclanthera explodens Naud. showed a main peak in the red region at 671 nm and a weak shoulder at about 640 nm. The pigments were extracted with acetone. separated by paper chromatography and analysed spectrophotometrically. The only detectable pigment was protochlorophyll. The in vivo fluorsecence emission spectra had two main peaks, one at 632 and one at 691 nm. The relation between the two peaks was changed when the exvcitation wavelength was altered from 440 to 460 nm. Excitation at 420 nm gave an additional fluorescence emission peak at 595 nm. These data indicate the presence of at least three forms of protochlorophyll in the Cyclantera seed coat. The spectrum of circular dichroism had a very intence and characteristic signal in the red region with a negative asymmetrical Cotton effect (664 (+), 669 (0) and 687 (?) nm). This indicates that at least one of the protochlorophyll forms is present in a more or less crystalline form.     

原发性肝癌:CT血液供应、P53抗体和血管内皮生长因子

目的:分析原发性肝癌(primary hepatic carcinoma,简称肝癌)血液供应(blood supply,简称血供)CT类型与患者血清P53抗体、血管内皮生长因子(vascular endothelial growth factor,VEGF)的关系,以及血清P53抗体与VEGF的相关性.方法:用酶联免疫吸附法定量检测首诊肝癌患者血清P53抗体和VEGF,与CT诊断的血供类型结果进行对比,分析不同血供类型的肝癌是否存在血清P53抗体差异(单因素分析),并分析不同血供类型的肝癌血清VEGF是否存在差异(单因素分析),然后分析血清P53抗体和VEGF之间的相关性.结果:四种不同血供类型的肝癌之间血清P53抗体滴度有差异(P<0.05).值得注意的是,富血供型与混合型之间、动-静脉漏型(AVS)与混合型之间血清P53抗体有显著差异(P<0.05),富血供型与AVS型之间血清P53抗体没有显著差异(P>0.05).不同血供类型的肝癌中,富血供型和混合型血清P53抗体与VEGF呈正相关(P<0.05),而AVS型和乏血供型中,血清P53抗体与VEGF不呈直线相关(P>0.05).结论:血清P53抗体和血清VEGF滴度在血供不同肝癌中滴度有差异,在富血供型和混合型中血清P53抗体与VEGF滴度呈正相关.     

Genetic differentiation among the Maculinea species (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae) in eastern Central Europe

The present study aimed to analyse the level of genetic variation in the eastern Central European (Slovenia, Hungary, and Romania/Transylvania) populations of the Large Blues ( Maculinea ) to analyse the pattern of differentiation both between and within the species. One objective was to compare the level of differentiation between the two disputed species ( Maculinea alcon and Maculinea rebeli ) with that among the other species. Imagos were collected from 23 localities in eastern Central Europe in 2002. Enzyme polymorphism was analysed using polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Fourteen enzyme loci were studied in all samples. In the analysis of the data, F -statistics and Nei's genetic distances were calculated and a dendrogram (unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean) was constructed on the basis of the distance matrix. A multivariate analysis of variance was performed to study the pattern of genetic differentiation among the samples. Principal component analysis analysis was also carried out using the allele frequency data of the samples. Our results indicated that the large blues are generally less polymorphic than other European lycaenid butterflies studied. At the same time, the level of genetic differentiation was high, even among local populations within the species. A low level of genetic variation within the populations coupled with strong differentiation among them implies the effect of genetic drift. Strong genetic differentiation of four Maculinea species ( M. alcon , Maculinea teleius, Maculinea nausithous , and Maculinea arion ) was confirmed. Significant differentiation was not found between M. alcon and M. rebeli .  © 2007 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2007, 91 , 11–21.     

Effects of Ca2+ and Temperature on K+ Content Distribution along Roots of Wheat, Rice and Cucumber

The effects of Ca²⁺ and temperature on the K⁺ contents of root segments of wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Aurora), rice (Oryza sativa L. cv. Dunghan Shali) and cucumber (Cucumis sativus L. cv. Csemege Fürtös) were investigated with special regard to the low-temperature anomaly of the K⁺ uptake of thermophilic plants. The anomaly occurred in those root segments where the K⁺ contents turned out to be highest. The K⁺ contents of the apical root sections of thermophilic species responded in general to Ca²⁺ in more pronounced ways than those of wheat, at both 0 and 25°C. The concerted actions of a purely physical process with negative temperature coefficient and of the special thermotropic properties of the membranes are suggested to be responsible for the low-temperature anomaly. A strict discrimination between the Viets-effect on the content (classical Viets-effect) and on the uptake is proposed. The classical Viets-effect seems to be related to alterations in both active transport and exchange processes.