Does the seed size/number trade‐off model determine plant community structure? An assessment of the model mechanisms and their generality

This paper examines four key mechanisms of the seed size/number trade-off (SSNT) models to assess their relevance to a general understanding of plant community structure. Mechanism 1 is that large seeds have a greater probability of winning in competition against smaller seeds. I provide interspecific experimental evidence that there is a competitive hierarchy among seedlings based on seed size. Mechanism 2 is that a trade-off exists between the number and size of seeds produced for a given reproductive allocation. Negative correlations between seed size and number were found consistently across a range of species from a range of habitats, from published literature. Mechanism 3, that seedling-seedling competition is an important influence on species composition, was found to exist potentially in a range of environments, including annual-dominated, post-fire and gap-dynamic communities. However, there is little quantitative evidence available and this is likely to be a restrictive mechanism. Mechanism 4, that small seeds are superior colonists due to their greater number, was tested in a field experiment in a calcareous grassland community. No supporting evidence was found, suggesting that the SSNT is not an important determinant of structure in this community. Thus two of the four mechanisms can be considered to hold true generally, while the third mechanism may be valid in particular environments. The fourth mechanism did not apply in the community tested, but could be tested in a wider range of communities.     

Erythromycin block of the HERG K+ channel: accessibility to F656 and Y652

The HERG potassium channel might have a non-canonical drug binding site, distinct from the channel's inner cavity, that could be responsible for elements of closed-state pharmacological inhibition of the channel. The macrolide antibiotic erythromycin is a drug that may block unconventionally because of its size. Here we used whole-cell patch-clamp recording at 37 degrees C from heterologously expressed HERG channels in a mammalian cell line to show that erythromycin either produces a rapid open-state-dependent HERG channel inhibition, or components of both open-state-dependent and closed-state-dependent inhibition. Alanine-substitution of HERG's canonical determinants of blockade revealed that Y652 was not important as a molecular determinant of blockade, and that mutation of F656 resulted in only weak attenuation of inhibition. In computer models of the channel, erythromycin could make several direct contacts with F656, but not with Y652, in the open-state model, and erythromycin was unable to fit into a closed-state channel model.     

The grass may not always be greener: projected reductions in climatic suitability for exotic grasses under future climates in Australia

Climate change presents a new challenge for the management of invasive exotic species that threaten both biodiversity and agricultural productivity. The invasion of exotic perennial grasses throughout the globe is particularly problematic given their impacts on a broad range of native plant communities and livelihoods. As the climate continues to change, pre-emptive long-term management strategies for exotic grasses will become increasingly important. Using species distribution modelling we investigated potential changes to the location of climatically suitable habitat for some exotic perennial grass species currently in Australia, under a range of future climate scenarios for the decade centred around 2050. We focus on eleven species shortlisted or declared as the Weeds of National Significance or Alert List species in Australia, which have also become successful invaders in other parts of the world. Our results indicate that the extent of climatically suitable habitat available for all of the exotic grasses modelled is projected to decrease under climate scenarios for 2050. This reduction is most severe for the three species of Needle Grass (genus Nassella) that currently have infestations in the south-east of the continent. Combined with information on other aspects of establishment risk (e.g. demographic rates, human-use, propagule pressure), predictions of reduced climatic suitability provide justification for re-assessing which weeds are prioritised for intensive management as the climate changes.     

Invasion hotspots for non‐native plants in Australia under current and future climates

We apply the concept of biodiversity hotspot analysis (the identification of biogeographical regions of high species diversity) to identify invasion hotspots – areas of potentially suitable climate for multiple non‐native plant species – in Australia under current and future climates. We used the species distribution model Maxent to model climate suitability surfaces for 72 taxa, recognized as ‘Weeds of National Significance’ (WoNS) in Australia, under current and projected climate for 2020 and 2050. Current climate suitability layers were summed across all 72 species, and we observed two regions of high climatic suitability corresponding to the top 25th percentile of combined climatic suitability values across Australia. We defined these as potential invasion hotspots. Areas of climatic suitability equivalent to the hotspot regions were identified in the composite maps for 2020 and 2050, to track spatial changes in the hotspots over the two time steps. Two potential invasion hotspot regions were identified under current and projected climates: the south west corner of Western Australia (SW), and south eastern Australia (SE). Herbarium data confirmed the presence of 73% and 99% of those species predicted to be in each hotspot respectively, suggesting that the SE has greater invasion potential. The area of both hotspots was predicted to retract southward and towards the coast under future climate scenarios, reducing in size by 81% (SW) and 71% (SE) by 2050. This reduction was driven by the dominance of southern temperate invasive plant species in the WoNS list (47 of the 72), of which 44 were predicted to experience reductions in their bioclimatic range by 2050. While climate is likely to become less suitable for the majority of WoNS in the future, potential invasion hotspots based on climate suitability are likely to remain in the far south of eastern Australia, and in the far south west of Western Australia by 2050.