Anthropogenic disturbance in a changing environment: modelling lifetime reproductive success to predict the consequences of multiple stressors on a migratory population

Animals make behavioural and reproductive decisions that maximise their lifetime reproductive success, and thus their fitness, in light of periodic and stochastic variability of the environment. Modelling the variation of an individual's energy levels formalises this tradeoff and helps to quantify the population‐level consequences of stressors (e.g. disturbance from human activities and environmental change) that can affect behaviour or physiology. In this study, we develop a dynamic state variable model for the spatially explicit behaviour, physiology and reproduction of a female, long‐lived, migratory marine vertebrate. The model can be used to investigate the spatio‐temporal patterns of behaviour and reproduction that allow an individual to maximise its overall reproductive output. We parametrised the model for eastern North Pacific blue whales Balaenoptera musculus, and used it to predict the effects of changing environmental conditions and increasing human disturbance on the population's vital rates. In baseline conditions, the model output had high fidelity to observed energy dynamics, movement patterns and reproductive strategies. Simulated scenarios suggested that environmental changes could have severe consequences on the population's vital rates, but that individuals could tolerate high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. However, this ability depended on where, when and how often disturbance occurred. In scenarios with both environmental change and anthropogenic disturbance, synergistic interactions caused stronger effects than in isolation. In general, larger body size offered a buffer against stochasticity and disturbance, and, consequently, we predicted juveniles to be more susceptible to disturbance. We also predicted that females prioritise their own survival at the expense of the current reproductive attempt, presumably the result of their long lifespan. Our approach provides a general framework to make predictions of the cumulative and synergistic effects of human disturbance and climate change on migratory populations, which can inform effective management and conservation efforts.     

River macrophyte indices: not the Holy Grail!

1. Recent studies have demonstrated that there is generally no unambiguous relationship between plant species composition and specific environmental conditions in rivers. Nevertheless, indices of environmental pressures based on macrophytes are flourishing, because of the requirements of the Water Framework Directive (WFD). 2. We first reviewed nine such indices against 13 criteria for bioindicators. Then, using data from France and England, we tested whether the IBMR (Macrophyte Biological Index for Rivers) and LEAFPACS (predictions and classification system for macrophytes) methods could reliably indicate nutrient and hydromorphological pressures. Finally, we used an improved bootstrapping method to estimate accuracy. 3. Currently, most indices lack ecological meaning for a variety of reasons, including partial sampling (backwaters are excluded); reliance on list of taxa (there are identification difficulties) rather than structure and functions; correlation rather than causation; application within a limited biogeographical area; reliance on ‘expert’ judgement; high precision but poor accuracy; poorly defined reference conditions; lack of independent tests; and an inability to discriminate reliably between the target pressures of interest from confounding background variables. 4. IBMR was a far better indicator of pH (or HCO₃‐pCO₂) than it was of soluble reactive phosphorus, SRP (or SRP‐NH₄). While there was a highly significant correlation between IBMR and SRP after removing the effect of pH, the relationship was weak (r² = 0.08, n = 215, P < 0.001). 5. LEAFPACS is a multi‐metric method summing up five individual indices, each compliant with the WFD. Its individual metrics were not better correlated with nutrient and hydromorphological pressures (with r² < 0.1, n = 62, P < 0.05) than was the IBMR. The meaning of the overall metric is questionable. 6. There are problems in determining the precision of the indices, owing to uncertainties in recording, but they are less than the uncertainties in determining accuracy (because species optima and tolerances are sometimes poorly known). 7. Reliable information is needed to improve the state of our rivers. Macrophyte indices are able to detect statistically significant pressures from a large population of sites but cannot be applied at specific sites, as required by the WFD, owing to large uncertainties and low explanatory power. Typically, more than 90% of the variability in macrophyte indices is attributed to factors other than human pressure. The WFD would be better served by a simpler, holistic approach based on our current mechanistic understanding of river processes. These findings are likely to apply also to other taxonomic groups (macroinvertebrates, diatoms, fish) used in the assessment of purported ecological quality and to palaeolimnological measures of reference status.     

Vegetative and seedling regeneration after fire in planted Sardinian pinewood compared with that in other areas of Mediterranean-type climate

Aim Fire is a key disturbance in Mediterranean‐type climates. It has effects on plant community structure and composition and on the evolution of different groups of the flora. This study aimed to quantify changes in demography and vegetative regeneration caused by fire in key species in Mediterranean vegetation and to examine the hypothesis of convergence in characteristics of species in relation to fire by comparing the occurrence of bioecological groups of plants in the Mediterranean basin with groups of plants in other areas of Mediterranean‐type climate. Methods Changes in the demography and species composition after fire were studied in a plant community developed from a pinewood (Pinus halapensis Miller plantation) in north‐western Sardinia. The demography of the three main species dominating the community after fire, Cistus monspeliensis L., Pistacia lentiscus L. and Chamaerops humilis L., was quantified by quadrat measurements in areas of the plantation which had never been burnt and in different parts 1 and 8 years after fire. Vegetative regeneration of resprouting species was also quantified. From the results of the survey and examination of published material, comparison was made between bioecological groups of species in different regions with Mediterranean‐type climate to assess the similarities and differences in the biogeographic distribution of what can be broadly considered fire‐related functional groups of plants. Results Seeder and sprouter species showed contrasting population responses to fire in an area planted to pines over 50 years ago but subsequently in part subjected to fire. Mean species richness at a 25 m² scale decreased by c. 28% over 8 years after fire. C. monspeliensis in the unburnt pinewood was sparse and sporadic but recruitment after fire was prolific and produced plant densities similar to those of similar seeder species in other Mediterranean Basin areas and in Californian chaparral. However density was very variable between burnt areas of different ages. In particular, seedling recruitment was much lower under the canopies of P. lentiscus than away from the canopy. Sprouter species (P. lentiscus and C. humilis) had recruited into the pinewood over time since planting of the pines but did not recruit after fire. Above‐ground parts of plants were killed by fire and resprout stem density per plant increased initially but later decreased slightly due to self thinning of stems on each plant. Main conclusions Plant demographic and floristic changes after fire in the Sardinian pinewood were similar to those reported for other Mediterranean plant communities. Resprouting species only recovered by vegetative means and, in contrast to seeder species, underwent thinning of stems within, rather than between, plants, so plant density did not change after fire in resprouting species. The Tertiary relic, strongly resprouting, animal‐dispersed group of species in the Mediterranean Basin has a homologous group in the North American mediterraneoid flora but not in the Southern Hemisphere. In contrast, the general group of resprouting species which recruit after and/or between fires in the Southern Hemisphere mediterraneoid areas corresponds to only a small group of taxa in the Mediterranean basin. The bioecological group of seeder species, which are killed by and establish prolifically after fire, are represented in both Northern and Southern Hemisphere Mediterranean‐type heathlands but are much more species rich in the south.     

Non-Enhanced MR Imaging of Cerebral Aneurysms: 7 Tesla versus 1.5 Tesla

Purpose

To prospectively evaluate 7 Tesla time-of-flight (TOF) magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) in comparison to 1.5 Tesla TOF MRA and 7 Tesla non-contrast enhanced magnetization-prepared rapid acquisition gradient-echo (MPRAGE) for delineation of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA).

Material and Methods

Sixteen neurosurgical patients (male n = 5, female n = 11) with single or multiple UIA were enrolled in this trial. All patients were accordingly examined at 7 Tesla and 1.5 Tesla MRI utilizing dedicated head coils. The following sequences were obtained: 7 Tesla TOF MRA, 1.5 Tesla TOF MRA and 7 Tesla non-contrast enhanced MPRAGE. Image analysis was performed by two radiologists with regard to delineation of aneurysm features (dome, neck, parent vessel), presence of artifacts, vessel-tissue-contrast and overall image quality. Interobserver accordance and intermethod comparisons were calculated by kappa coefficient and Lin''s concordance correlation coefficient.

Results

A total of 20 intracranial aneurysms were detected in 16 patients, with two patients showing multiple aneurysms (n = 2, n = 4). Out of 20 intracranial aneurysms, 14 aneurysms were located in the anterior circulation and 6 aneurysms in the posterior circulation. 7 Tesla MPRAGE imaging was superior over 1.5 and 7 Tesla TOF MRA in the assessment of all considered aneurysm and image quality features (e.g. image quality: mean MPRAGE7T: 5.0; mean TOF7T: 4.3; mean TOF1.5T: 4.3). Ratings for 7 Tesla TOF MRA were equal or higher over 1.5 Tesla TOF MRA for all assessed features except for artifact delineation (mean TOF7T: 4.3; mean TOF1.5T 4.4). Interobserver accordance was good to excellent for most ratings.

Conclusion

7 Tesla MPRAGE imaging demonstrated its superiority in the detection and assessment of UIA as well as overall imaging features, offering excellent interobserver accordance and highest scores for all ratings. Hence, it may bear the potential to serve as a high-quality diagnostic tool for pretherapeutic assessment and follow-up of untreated UIA.     

Reconstructing Source-Sink Dynamics in a Population with a Pelagic Dispersal Phase

For many organisms, the reconstruction of source-sink dynamics is hampered by limited knowledge of the spatial assemblage of either the source or sink components or lack of information on the strength of the linkage for any source-sink pair. In the case of marine species with a pelagic dispersal phase, these problems may be mitigated through the use of particle drift simulations based on an ocean circulation model. However, when simulated particle trajectories do not intersect sampling sites, the corroboration of model drift simulations with field data is hampered. Here, we apply a new statistical approach for reconstructing source-sink dynamics that overcomes the aforementioned problems. Our research is motivated by the need for understanding observed changes in jellyfish distributions in the eastern Bering Sea since 1990. By contrasting the source-sink dynamics reconstructed with data from the pre-1990 period with that from the post-1990 period, it appears that changes in jellyfish distribution resulted from the combined effects of higher jellyfish productivity and longer dispersal of jellyfish resulting from a shift in the ocean circulation starting in 1991. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the source-sink reconstruction is robust to typical systematic and random errors in the ocean circulation model driving the particle drift simulations. The jellyfish analysis illustrates that new insights can be gained by studying structural changes in source-sink dynamics. The proposed approach is applicable for the spatial source-sink reconstruction of other species and even abiotic processes, such as sediment transport.     

Sequence Comparison for Non-Enhanced MRA of the Lower Extremity Arteries at 7 Tesla

In this study three sequences for non-contrast-enhanced MRA of the lower extremity arteries at 7T were compared. Cardiac triggering was used with the aim to reduce signal variations in the arteries. Two fast single-shot 2D sequences, a modified Ultrafast Spoiled Gradient Echo (UGRE) sequence and a variant of the Quiescent-Interval Single-Shot (QISS) sequence were triggered via phonocardiogram and compared in volunteer examinations to a non-triggered 2D gradient echo (GRE) sequence. For image acquisition, a 16-channel transmit/receive coil and a manually positionable AngioSURF table were used. To tackle B₁ inhomogeneities at 7T, Time-Interleaved Acquisition of Modes (TIAMO) was integrated in GRE and UGRE. To compare the three sequences quantitatively, a vessel-to-background ratio (VBR) was measured in all volunteers and stations. In conclusion, cardiac triggering was able to suppress flow artifacts satisfactorily. The modified UGRE showed only moderate image artifacts. Averaged over all volunteers and stations, GRE reached a VBR of 4.18±0.05, UGRE 5.20±0.06, and QISS 2.72±0.03. Using cardiac triggering and TIAMO imaging technique was essential to perform non-enhanced MRA of the lower extremities vessels at 7T. The modified UGRE performed best, as observed artifacts were only moderate and the highest average VBR was reached.     

Tracing plant source water dynamics during drought by continuous transpiration measurements: An in-situ stable isotope approach

The isotopic composition of xylem water (δ_X) is of considerable interest for plant source water studies. In-situ monitored isotopic composition of transpired water (δ_T) could provide a nondestructive proxy for δ_X-values. Using flow-through leaf chambers, we monitored 2-hourly δ_T-dynamics in two tropical plant species, one canopy-forming tree and one understory herbaceous species. In an enclosed rainforest (Biosphere 2), we observed δ_T-dynamics in response to an experimental severe drought, followed by a ²H deep-water pulse applied belowground before starting regular rain. We also sampled branches to obtain δ_X-values from cryogenic vacuum extraction (CVE). Daily flux-weighted δ¹⁸O_T-values were a good proxy for δ¹⁸O_X-values under well-watered and drought conditions that matched the rainforest's water source. Transpiration-derived δ¹⁸O_X-values were mostly lower than CVE-derived values. Transpiration-derived δ²H_X-values were relatively high compared to source water and consistently higher than CVE-derived values during drought. Tracing the ²H deep-water pulse in real-time showed distinct water uptake and transport responses: a fast and strong contribution of deep water to canopy tree transpiration contrasting with a slow and limited contribution to understory species transpiration. Thus, the in-situ transpiration method is a promising tool to capture rapid dynamics in plant water uptake and use by both woody and nonwoody species.