Generation separation in simple structured life cycles: models and 48 years of field data on a tea tortrix moth

Population cycles have fascinated ecologists since the early nineteenth century, and the dynamics of insect populations have been central to understanding the intrinsic and extrinsic biological processes responsible for these cycles. We analyzed an extraordinary long-term data set (every 5 days for 48 years) of a tea tortrix moth (Adoxophyes honmai) that exhibits two dominant cycles: an annual cycle with a conspicuous pattern of four or five single-generation cycles superimposed on it. General theory offers several candidate mechanisms for generation cycles. To evaluate these, we construct and parameterize a series of temperature-dependent, stage-structured models that include intraspecific competition, parasitism, mate-finding Allee effects, and adult senescence, all in the context of a seasonal environment. By comparing the observed dynamics with predictions from the models, we find that even weak larval competition in the presence of seasonal temperature forcing predicts the two cycles accurately. None of the other mechanisms predicts the dynamics. Detailed dissection of the results shows that a short reproductive life span and differential winter mortality among stages are the additional life-cycle characteristics that permit the sustained cycles. Our general modeling approach is applicable to a wide range of organisms with temperature-dependent life histories and is likely to prove particularly useful in temperate systems where insect pest outbreaks are both density and temperature dependent.     

Nation-wide litter fall data from 21 forests of the Monitoring Sites 1000 Project in Japan

This data paper reports litter fall data collected in a network of 21 forest sites in Japan. This is the largest litter fall data set freely available in Japan to date. The network is a part of the Monitoring Sites 1000 Project launched by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. It covers subarctic to subtropical climate zones and the four major forest types in Japan. Twenty-three permanent plots in which usually 25 litter traps were installed were established in old-growth or secondary natural forests. Litter falls were collected monthly from 2004, and sorted into leaves, branches, reproductive structures and miscellaneous. The data provide seasonal patterns and inter-annual dynamics of litter falls, and their geographical patterns, and offer good opportunities for meta-analyses and comparative studies among forests.     

Molecular determinants that convert hormone sensitive lipase into gibberellin receptor

Gibberellins (GAs) are tetracyclic, diterpenoid plant hormones, essential for many developmental processes in higher plants. Plants perceive GA through a nuclear-localized GA receptor, GA INSENSITIVE DWARF1 (GID1). From sequence similarity, it is suggested that GID1 evolved from a hormone-sensitive lipase (HSL), and recent x-ray crystallography of the GA-GID1 complex has given insights into how GID1 recognizes GA. Analyses of the GA signaling pathway in several plant species further suggest that the GID1-mediated GA signaling pathway emerged in the vascular plant lineage and since then regulation of GA recognition specificity seems to have been fine tuned to strictly regulate the on-off GA signal.     

The suppressive function of the rice DELLA protein SLR1 is dependent on its transcriptional activation activity

When the gibberellin (GA) receptor GIBBERELLIN INSENSITIVE DWARF 1 (GID1) binds to GA, GID1 interacts with DELLA proteins, repressors of GA signaling. This interaction inhibits the suppressive function of DELLA protein and thereby activates the GA response. However, how DELLA proteins exert their suppressive function and how GID1s inhibit suppressive function of DELLA proteins is unclear. By yeast one-hybrid experiments and transient expression of the N-terminal region of rice DELLA protein (SLR1) in rice callus, we established that the N-terminal DELLA/TVHYNP motif of SLR1 possesses transactivation activity. When SLR1 proteins with various deletions were over-expressed in rice, the severity of dwarfism correlated with the transactivation activity observed in yeast, indicating that SLR1 suppresses plant growth through transactivation activity. This activity was suppressed by the GA-dependent GID1-SLR1 interaction, which may explain why GA responses are induced in the presence of GA. The C-terminal GRAS domain of SLR1 also exhibits a suppressive function on plant growth, possibly by directly or indirectly interacting with the promoter region of target genes. Our results indicate that the N-terminal region of SLR1 has two roles in GA signaling: interaction with GID1 and transactivation activity.     

Pyrrolidinyl phenylurea derivatives as novel CCR3 antagonists

Optimization starting with our lead compound 1 (IC₅₀ = 4.9 nM) led to the identification of pyrrolidinyl phenylurea derivatives. Further modification toward improvement of the bioavailability provided (R)-1-(1-((6-fluoronaphthalen-2-yl)methyl)pyrrolidin-3-yl)-3-(2-(2-hydroxyethoxy)phenyl)urea 32 (IC₅₀ = 1.7 nM), a potent and orally active CCR3 antagonist.     

Forecasting Japan's Physician Shortage in 2035 as the First Full-Fledged Aged Society

Introduction

Japan is rapidly becoming a full-fledged aged society, and physician shortage is a significant concern. The Japanese government has increased the number of medical school enrollments since 2008, but some researchers warn that this increase could lead to physician surplus in the future. It is unknown how many physicians will be required to accommodate future healthcare needs.

Materials and Methods

We simulated changes in age/sex composition of the population, fatalities (the number of fatalities for the consecutive five years), and number of physicians from 2010 to 2035. Two indicators were defined: fatalities per physician and fatalities by physician working hour, based on the data of the working hours of physicians for each tuple of sex and age groups. We estimated the necessary number of physicians in 2035 and the number of new physicians to maintain the indicator levels in 2010.

Results

The number of physicians per 1,000 population is predicted to rise from 2·00 in 2010 to 3·14 in 2035. The number of physicians aged 60 years or older is expected to increase from 55,375 (20% of physicians) to 141,711 (36%). In 2010 and 2035, fatalities per physician were 23·1 and 24·0 for the total population, and 13·9 and 19·2 for 75 years or older, respectively. Fatalities per physician working hour are predicted to rise from 0·128 to 0·138. If working hours are limited to 48 hours per week in 2035, the number of fatalities per physician working hour is expected to be 0·196, and the number of new physicians must be increased by 53% over the current pace.

Discussion

The number of physicians per population continues to rise, but the estimated supply will not fulfill the demand for healthcare in the aging society. Strategies to increase the number of physicians and improve working conditions are urgently needed.