Improving the Health Forecasting Alert System for Cold Weather and Heat-Waves In England: A Proof-of-Concept Using Temperature-Mortality Relationships

ObjectivesIn this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings.MethodThe prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system.ConclusionsThe prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.     

Range Expansion of Bythotrephes longimanus in North America: Evaluating Habitat Characteristics in the Spread of an Exotic Zooplankter

Sedimentary and water column evidence from 45 boat-accessible and eight backcountry lakes was used to investigate the distribution of Bythotrephes longimanus in northeast Minnesota, USA, and adjacent Ontario, Canada. The results expand the documented range of Bythotrephes in Minnesota from Lake Superior, Island Lake, and Saganaga Lake to Flour Lake, Greenwood Lake, McFarland Lake, Pine Lake, and Caribou Lake as well as to Saganagons Lake in Ontario. The latter three lakes are located in roadless landscapes without motorized boat access. Results confirm that Bythotrephes is no longer present in Boulder Lake or Fish Lake (St. Louis County, Minnesota), providing the first evidence of range compression (extinction following introduction) of this species in North America. Distributional expansion was confined to a corridor along the international border between northeast Minnesota and Ontario. Lakes along the invasion corridor were deeper, more transparent, and had lower chlorophyll concentration, on average, compared to other lakes studied. The pattern of range expansion provided an opportunity to test the predictions of a forecasting model for Bythotrephes occurrence (MacIsaac et al. 2000 Archiv für Hydrobiologie 149: 1–21) based on habitat characteristics. The model predicted 51% of the surveyed inland lakes to be susceptible to invasion, however, only 13% were actually invaded, implying strong dispersal constraints. Application of the forecasting model to a broader set of 179 Minnesota lakes predicted that 41% may be vulnerable to establishment by Bythotrephes based on habitat characteristics, offering an estimate of the state’s overall lake susceptibility (i.e., fundamental niche) to invasion. The results of this study provide evidence for the importance of a low-light refuge where Bythotrephes can minimize vulnerability to fish predation as a key habitat feature not considered by the forecasting model.     

Towards the endgame and beyond: complexities and challenges for the elimination of infectious diseases

Successful control measures have interrupted the local transmission of human infectious diseases such as measles, malaria and polio, and saved and improved billions of lives. Similarly, control efforts have massively reduced the incidence of many infectious diseases of animals, such as rabies and rinderpest, with positive benefits for human health and livelihoods across the globe. However, disease elimination has proven an elusive goal, with only one human and one animal pathogen globally eradicated. As elimination targets expand to regional and even global levels, hurdles may emerge within the endgame when infections are circulating at very low levels, turning the last mile of these public health marathons into the longest mile. In this theme issue, we bring together recurring challenges that emerge as we move towards elimination, highlighting the unanticipated consequences of particular ecologies and pathologies of infection, and approaches to their management.     

The Role of Integrative Taxonomy in the Conservation Management of Cryptic Species: The Taxonomic Status of Endangered Earless Dragons (Agamidae: Tympanocryptis) in the Grasslands of Queensland,Australia

Molecular phylogenetics is increasingly highlighting the prevalence of cryptic species, where morphologically similar organisms have long independent evolutionary histories. When such cryptic species are known to be declining in numbers and are at risk of extinction due to a range of threatening processes, the disjunction between molecular systematics research and conservation policy becomes a significant problem. We investigate the taxonomic status of Tympanocryptis populations in Queensland, which have previously been assigned to T. tetraporophora, using three species delimitation approaches. The taxonomic uncertainties in this species-group are of particular importance in the Darling Downs Earless Dragon (T. cf. tetraporophora), which is ranked as an endangered ‘species’ of high priority for conservation by the Queensland Department of Environment and Heritage Protection. We undertook a morphological study, integrated with a comprehensive genetic study and species delimitation analyses, to investigate the species status of populations in the region. Phylogenetic analyses of two gene regions (mtDNA: ND2; nuclear: RAG1) revealed high levels of genetic divergence between populations, indicating isolation over long evolutionary time frames, and strongly supporting two independent evolutionary lineages in southeastern Queensland, from the Darling Downs, and a third in the Gulf Region of northern Queensland. Of the three species delimitation protocols used, we found integrative taxonomy the most applicable to this cryptic species complex. Our study demonstrates the utility of integrative taxonomy as a species delimitation approach in cryptic complexes of species with conservation significance, where limited numbers of specimens are available.     

Childhood Adversity Is Associated with Adult Theory of Mind and Social Affiliation,but Not Face Processing

People vary substantially in their ability to acquire and maintain social ties. Here, we use a combined epidemiological and individual differences approach to understand the childhood roots of adult social cognitive functioning. We assessed exposure to 25 forms of traumatic childhood experiences in over 5000 adults, along with measures of face discrimination, face memory, theory of mind, social motivation, and social support. Retrospectively-reported experiences of parental maltreatment in childhood (particularly physical abuse) were the most broadly and robustly associated with adult variations in theory of mind, social motivation, and social support. Adult variations in face discrimination and face memory, on the other hand, were not significantly associated with exposure to childhood adversity. Our findings indicate domains of social cognition that may be particularly vulnerable to the effects of adverse childhood environments, and suggest mechanisms whereby environmental factors might influence the development of social abilities.     

A high-throughput platform for the rapid screening of vitamin D status by direct infusion-MS/MS

Vitamin D is an important fat-soluble prohormone with pleiotropic effects on human health, such as immunomodulation of the innate and adaptive immune system. There is an unmet clinical need for a rapid screening platform for 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OH-D) determination without chromatographic separation that offers better precision and accuracy than immunoassays. Here, we introduce a high-throughput method for assessing vitamin D status from blood specimens based on direct infusion-MS/MS (DI-MS/MS) following click derivatization using 2-nitrosopyridine. We developed an optimized liquid-phase extraction protocol to minimize ion suppression when directly infusing serum or plasma extracts via a capillary electrophoresis system for quantitative determination of 25OH-D. Acceptable reproducibility (mean coefficient of variation = 10.9%, n = 412), recovery (mean = 102% at 15, 30, and 45 nmol/l), and linearity (R² > 0.998) were achieved for 25OH-D with lower detection limits (limit of detection ～1.2 nmol/l, S/N ～ 3), greater throughput (～3 min/sample), and less bias than a commercial chemiluminescence immunoassay prone to batch effects. There was mutual agreement in 25OH-D concentrations from reference blood samples measured by DI-MS/MS as compared with LC-MS/MS (mean bias = 7.8%, n = 18). We also demonstrate that this method could reduce immunoassay misclassification of vitamin D deficiency in a cohort of critically ill children (n = 30). In conclusion, DI-MS/MS offers a viable alternative to LC-MS/MS for assessment of vitamin D status in support of large-scale studies in nutritional epidemiology as well as clinical trials to rapidly screen individual patients who may benefit from vitamin D supplementation.     

Functional Properties of Five Dictyostelium discoideum P2X Receptors

The Dictyostelium discoideum genome encodes five proteins that share weak sequence similarity with vertebrate P2X receptors. Unlike vertebrate P2X receptors, these proteins are not expressed on the surface of cells, but populate the tubules and bladders of the contractile vacuole. In this study, we expressed humanized cDNAs of P2XA, P2XB, P2XC, P2XD, and P2XE in human embryonic kidney cells and altered the ionic and proton environment in an attempt to reflect the situation in amoeba. Recording of whole-cell membrane currents showed that four receptors operated as ATP-gated channels (P2XA, P2XB, P2XD, and P2XE). At P2XA receptors, ATP was the only effective agonist of 17 structurally related putative ligands that were tested. Extracellular sodium, compared with potassium, strongly inhibited ATP responses in P2XB, P2XD, and P2XE receptors. Increasing the proton concentration (pH 6.2) accelerated desensitization at P2XA receptors and decreased currents at P2XD receptors, but increased the currents at P2XB and P2XE receptors. Dictyostelium lacking P2XA receptors showed impaired regulatory volume decrease in hypotonic solution. This phenotype was readily rescued by overexpression of P2XA and P2XD receptors, partially rescued by P2XB and P2XE receptors, and not rescued by P2XC receptors. The failure of the nonfunctional receptor P2XC to restore the regulatory volume decrease highlights the importance of ATP activation of P2X receptors for a normal response to hypo-osmotic shock, and the weak rescue by P2XB and P2XE receptors indicates that there is limited functional redundancy among Dictyostelium P2X receptors.     

A Novel Interplay between Rap1 and PKA Regulates Induction of Angiogenesis in Prostate Cancer

Angiogenesis inhibition is an important therapeutic strategy for advanced stage prostate cancer. Previous work from our laboratory showed that sustained stimulation of Rap1 by 8-pCPT-2''-O-Me-cAMP (8CPT) via activation of Epac, a Rap1 GEF, or by expression of a constitutively active Rap1 mutant (cRap1) suppresses endothelial cell chemotaxis and subsequent angiogenesis. When we tested this model in the context of a prostate tumor xenograft, we found that 8CPT had no significant effect on prostate tumor growth alone. However, in cells harboring cRap1, 8CPT dramatically inhibited not only prostate tumor growth but also VEGF expression and angiogenesis within the tumor microenvironment. Subsequent analysis of the mechanism revealed that, in prostate tumor epithelial cells, 8CPT acted via stimulation of PKA rather than Epac/Rap1. PKA antagonizes Rap1 and hypoxic induction of 1α protein expression, VEGF production and, ultimately, angiogenesis. Together these findings provide evidence for a novel interplay between Rap1, Epac, and PKA that regulates tumor-stromal induction of angiogenesis.     

Colony Failure Linked to Low Sperm Viability in Honey Bee (Apis mellifera) Queens and an Exploration of Potential Causative Factors

Queen health is closely linked to colony performance in honey bees as a single queen is normally responsible for all egg laying and brood production within the colony. In the U. S. in recent years, queens have been failing at a high rate; with 50% or greater of queens replaced in colonies within 6 months when historically a queen might live one to two years. This high rate of queen failure coincides with the high mortality rates of colonies in the US, some years with >50% of colonies dying. In the current study, surveys of sperm viability in US queens were made to determine if sperm viability plays a role in queen or colony failure. Wide variation was observed in sperm viability from four sets of queens removed from colonies that beekeepers rated as in good health (n = 12; average viability = 92%), were replacing as part of normal management (n = 28; 57%), or where rated as failing (n = 18 and 19; 54% and 55%). Two additional paired set of queens showed a statistically significant difference in viability between colonies rated by the beekeeper as failing or in good health from the same apiaries. Queens removed from colonies rated in good health averaged high viability (ca. 85%) while those rated as failing or in poor health had significantly lower viability (ca. 50%). Thus low sperm viability was indicative of, or linked to, colony performance. To explore the source of low sperm viability, six commercial queen breeders were surveyed and wide variation in viability (range 60–90%) was documented between breeders. This variability could originate from the drones the queens mate with or temperature extremes that queens are exposed to during shipment. The role of shipping temperature as a possible explanation for low sperm viability was explored. We documented that during shipment queens are exposed to temperature spikes (<8 and > 40°C) and these spikes can kill 50% or more of the sperm stored in queen spermathecae in live queens. Clearly low sperm viability is linked to colony performance and laboratory and field data provide evidence that temperature extremes are a potential causative factor.