Guidelines for model adaptation: A study of the transferability of a general seagrass ecosystem Dynamic Bayesian Networks model

In general, it is not feasible to collect enough empirical data to capture the entire range of processes that define a complex system, either intrinsically or when viewing the system from a different geographical or temporal perspective. In this context, an alternative approach is to consider model transferability, which is the act of translating a model built for one environment to another less well‐known situation. Model transferability and adaptability may be extremely beneficial—approaches that aid in the reuse and adaption of models, particularly for sites with limited data, would benefit from widespread model uptake. Besides the reduced effort required to develop a model, data collection can be simplified when transferring a model to a different application context. The research presented in this paper focused on a case study to identify and implement guidelines for model adaptation. Our study adapted a general Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) of a seagrass ecosystem to a new location where nodes were similar, but the conditional probability tables varied. We focused on two species of seagrass (Zostera noltei and Zostera marina) located in Arcachon Bay, France. Expert knowledge was used to complement peer‐reviewed literature to identify which components needed adjustment including parameterization and quantification of the model and desired outcomes. We adopted both linguistic labels and scenario‐based elicitation to elicit from experts the conditional probabilities used to quantify the DBN. Following the proposed guidelines, the model structure of the general DBN was retained, but the conditional probability tables were adapted for nodes that characterized the growth dynamics in Zostera spp. population located in Arcachon Bay, as well as the seasonal variation on their reproduction. Particular attention was paid to the light variable as it is a crucial driver of growth and physiology for seagrasses. Our guidelines provide a way to adapt a general DBN to specific ecosystems to maximize model reuse and minimize re‐development effort. Especially important from a transferability perspective are guidelines for ecosystems with limited data, and how simulation and prior predictive approaches can be used in these contexts.     

Making genomic surveillance deliver: A lineage classification and nomenclature system to inform rabies elimination

The availability of pathogen sequence data and use of genomic surveillance is rapidly increasing. Genomic tools and classification systems need updating to reflect this. Here, rabies virus is used as an example to showcase the potential value of updated genomic tools to enhance surveillance to better understand epidemiological dynamics and improve disease control. Previous studies have described the evolutionary history of rabies virus, however the resulting taxonomy lacks the definition necessary to identify incursions, lineage turnover and transmission routes at high resolution. Here we propose a lineage classification system based on the dynamic nomenclature used for SARS-CoV-2, defining a lineage by phylogenetic methods for tracking virus spread and comparing sequences across geographic areas. We demonstrate this system through application to the globally distributed Cosmopolitan clade of rabies virus, defining 96 total lineages within the clade, beyond the 22 previously reported. We further show how integration of this tool with a new rabies virus sequence data resource (RABV-GLUE) enables rapid application, for example, highlighting lineage dynamics relevant to control and elimination programmes, such as identifying importations and their sources, as well as areas of persistence and routes of virus movement, including transboundary incursions. This system and the tools developed should be useful for coordinating and targeting control programmes and monitoring progress as countries work towards eliminating dog-mediated rabies, as well as having potential for broader application to the surveillance of other viruses.     

Maternal transfer of strain-specific immunity in an invertebrate

The most celebrated component of the vertebrate immune system is the acquired response in which memory cells established during primary infection enhance the proliferation of antibodies during secondary infection. Additionally, the strength of vertebrate acquired immune responses varies dramatically depending on the infecting pathogen species or on the pathogen genotype within species. Because invertebrates lack the T-cell receptors and Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) molecules that mediate vertebrate adaptive immune responses, they are thought to lack adaptive immunity and be relatively unspecific in their interactions with pathogens. With only innate immunity, invertebrate hosts are believed to be nai;ve at each new encounter with pathogens. Nevertheless, some forms of facultative immunity appear to be important in insects; some individuals have enhanced immunity due to population density, and some social insects benefit when their nest-mates have been exposed to a pathogen or pathogen mimic (; see for a predation example.) Here we provide evidence for acquired strain-specific immunity in the crustacean Daphnia magna infected with the pathogenic bacteria Pasteuria ramosa. Specifically, the fitness of hosts was enhanced when challenged with a bacterial strain their mother had experienced relative to cases when mother and offspring were challenged with different strains.     

Differential effect of three-repeat and four-repeat tau on mitochondrial axonal transport

Tau protein is present in six different splice forms in the human brain and interacts with microtubules via either 3 or 4 microtubule binding repeats. An increased ratio of 3 repeat to 4 repeat isoforms is associated with neurodegeneration in inherited forms of frontotemporal dementia. Tau over-expression diminishes axonal transport in several systems, but differential effects of 3 repeat and 4 repeat isoforms have not been studied. We examined the effects of tau on mitochondrial transport and found that both 3 repeat and 4 repeat tau change normal mitochondrial distribution within the cell body and reduce mitochondrial localization to axons; 4 repeat tau has a greater effect than 3 repeat tau. Further, we observed that the 3 repeat and 4 repeat tau cause different alterations in retrograde and anterograde transport dynamics with 3 repeat tau having a slightly stronger effect on axon transport dynamics. Our results indicate that tau-induced changes in axonal transport may be an underlying theme in neurodegenerative diseases associated with isoform specific changes in tau's interaction with microtubules.     

Population recovery of alien black rats Rattus rattus: A test of reinvasion theory

Reinvasion of pest animals after incomplete control is a major challenge for invasive species management, yet little is known about the behavioural and demographic categories of reinvaders or the mechanisms that drive population‐level responses to control. To understand the fine‐scale mechanisms of reinvasion, we examined changes in demography, movements and activity patterns of reinvading alien black rats Rattus rattus in the short (4 weeks) and longer term (3 months) following localised experimental pest removal. Using recovery and invasion theory, we tested three hypothesised mechanisms of reinvasion: the ‘in situ effect’, the ‘trickle effect’ and the ‘vacuum effect’. We created space for reinvasion by removing black rats from the core of replicate 1‐ha plots (short‐term experiment) and later by removing animals from the entire plot (longer‐term experiment). Reinvaders were characterised as dispersing juveniles, floaters or neighbours. Radio‐tracking quantified home range changes for adjacent resident animals (short‐term experiment only). In the short term, there was no net influx of rats after targeted removal. Radio‐tracked residents’ movements were highly variable and displayed no directional changes after nearby conspecifics were removed. However, in the longer term, removal led to slow population recovery through a mix of reinvading floaters, dispersing juveniles and shifting residents. These responses best support a hypothesis of reinvasion through a trickle effect, with rats being extremely mobile and having a high degree of population turnover, even in untreated sites. Our findings provide the first test of reinvasion theory at a small scale, demonstrating the importance of understanding the differing categories of reinvaders and mechanisms of reinvasion after population control. These mechanisms drive the rate of population recovery and, in turn, should help determine which strategy of pest control should be used, and the frequency with which they are implemented, in order to slow the recovery of pest populations.