Guidelines for model adaptation: A study of the transferability of a general seagrass ecosystem Dynamic Bayesian Networks model

In general, it is not feasible to collect enough empirical data to capture the entire range of processes that define a complex system, either intrinsically or when viewing the system from a different geographical or temporal perspective. In this context, an alternative approach is to consider model transferability, which is the act of translating a model built for one environment to another less well‐known situation. Model transferability and adaptability may be extremely beneficial—approaches that aid in the reuse and adaption of models, particularly for sites with limited data, would benefit from widespread model uptake. Besides the reduced effort required to develop a model, data collection can be simplified when transferring a model to a different application context. The research presented in this paper focused on a case study to identify and implement guidelines for model adaptation. Our study adapted a general Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) of a seagrass ecosystem to a new location where nodes were similar, but the conditional probability tables varied. We focused on two species of seagrass (Zostera noltei and Zostera marina) located in Arcachon Bay, France. Expert knowledge was used to complement peer‐reviewed literature to identify which components needed adjustment including parameterization and quantification of the model and desired outcomes. We adopted both linguistic labels and scenario‐based elicitation to elicit from experts the conditional probabilities used to quantify the DBN. Following the proposed guidelines, the model structure of the general DBN was retained, but the conditional probability tables were adapted for nodes that characterized the growth dynamics in Zostera spp. population located in Arcachon Bay, as well as the seasonal variation on their reproduction. Particular attention was paid to the light variable as it is a crucial driver of growth and physiology for seagrasses. Our guidelines provide a way to adapt a general DBN to specific ecosystems to maximize model reuse and minimize re‐development effort. Especially important from a transferability perspective are guidelines for ecosystems with limited data, and how simulation and prior predictive approaches can be used in these contexts.     

Making genomic surveillance deliver: A lineage classification and nomenclature system to inform rabies elimination

The availability of pathogen sequence data and use of genomic surveillance is rapidly increasing. Genomic tools and classification systems need updating to reflect this. Here, rabies virus is used as an example to showcase the potential value of updated genomic tools to enhance surveillance to better understand epidemiological dynamics and improve disease control. Previous studies have described the evolutionary history of rabies virus, however the resulting taxonomy lacks the definition necessary to identify incursions, lineage turnover and transmission routes at high resolution. Here we propose a lineage classification system based on the dynamic nomenclature used for SARS-CoV-2, defining a lineage by phylogenetic methods for tracking virus spread and comparing sequences across geographic areas. We demonstrate this system through application to the globally distributed Cosmopolitan clade of rabies virus, defining 96 total lineages within the clade, beyond the 22 previously reported. We further show how integration of this tool with a new rabies virus sequence data resource (RABV-GLUE) enables rapid application, for example, highlighting lineage dynamics relevant to control and elimination programmes, such as identifying importations and their sources, as well as areas of persistence and routes of virus movement, including transboundary incursions. This system and the tools developed should be useful for coordinating and targeting control programmes and monitoring progress as countries work towards eliminating dog-mediated rabies, as well as having potential for broader application to the surveillance of other viruses.     

Maternal transfer of strain-specific immunity in an invertebrate

The most celebrated component of the vertebrate immune system is the acquired response in which memory cells established during primary infection enhance the proliferation of antibodies during secondary infection. Additionally, the strength of vertebrate acquired immune responses varies dramatically depending on the infecting pathogen species or on the pathogen genotype within species. Because invertebrates lack the T-cell receptors and Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) molecules that mediate vertebrate adaptive immune responses, they are thought to lack adaptive immunity and be relatively unspecific in their interactions with pathogens. With only innate immunity, invertebrate hosts are believed to be nai;ve at each new encounter with pathogens. Nevertheless, some forms of facultative immunity appear to be important in insects; some individuals have enhanced immunity due to population density, and some social insects benefit when their nest-mates have been exposed to a pathogen or pathogen mimic (; see for a predation example.) Here we provide evidence for acquired strain-specific immunity in the crustacean Daphnia magna infected with the pathogenic bacteria Pasteuria ramosa. Specifically, the fitness of hosts was enhanced when challenged with a bacterial strain their mother had experienced relative to cases when mother and offspring were challenged with different strains.     

Differential effect of three-repeat and four-repeat tau on mitochondrial axonal transport

Tau protein is present in six different splice forms in the human brain and interacts with microtubules via either 3 or 4 microtubule binding repeats. An increased ratio of 3 repeat to 4 repeat isoforms is associated with neurodegeneration in inherited forms of frontotemporal dementia. Tau over-expression diminishes axonal transport in several systems, but differential effects of 3 repeat and 4 repeat isoforms have not been studied. We examined the effects of tau on mitochondrial transport and found that both 3 repeat and 4 repeat tau change normal mitochondrial distribution within the cell body and reduce mitochondrial localization to axons; 4 repeat tau has a greater effect than 3 repeat tau. Further, we observed that the 3 repeat and 4 repeat tau cause different alterations in retrograde and anterograde transport dynamics with 3 repeat tau having a slightly stronger effect on axon transport dynamics. Our results indicate that tau-induced changes in axonal transport may be an underlying theme in neurodegenerative diseases associated with isoform specific changes in tau's interaction with microtubules.     

Which Urban Migrants Default from Tuberculosis Treatment in Shanghai,China?

Background

Migration is a major challenge to tuberculosis (TB) control worldwide. TB treatment requires multiple drugs for at least six months. Some TB patients default before completing their treatment regimen, which can lead to ongoing infectiousness and drug resistance.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of 29,943 active TB cases among urban migrants that were reported between 2000 to 2008 in Shanghai, China. We used logistic regression models to identify factors independently associated with treatment defaults in TB patients among urban migrants during 2005-2008.

Results

Fifty-two percent of the total TB patients reported in Shanghai during the study period were among urban migrants. Three factors increased the odds of a treatment default: case management using self-administered therapy (OR, 5.84, 95% CI, 3.14-10.86, p<0.0005), being a retreatment case (OR, 1.47, 95% CI, 1.25-1.71, p<0.0005), and age >60 years old (OR, 1.33, 95% CI, 1.05-1.67, p=0.017). The presence of a cavity in the initial chest radiograph decreased the odds for a treatment default (OR, 0.87, 95% CI, 0.77-0.97, p=0.015), as did migration from central China (OR, 0.85, 95% CI, 0.73-0.99, p=0.042), case management by family members (OR, 0.73, 95% CI 0.66-0.81, p<0.0005), and the combination of case detection by a required physical exam and case management by health care staff (OR, 0.64, 95% CI, 0.45-0.93, p=0.019).

Conclusion

Among TB patients who were urban migrants in Shanghai, case management using self-administered therapy was the strongest modifiable risk factor that was independently associated with treatment defaults. Interventions that target retreated TB cases could also reduce treatment defaults among urban migrants. Health departments should develop effective measures to prevent treatment defaults among urban migrants, to ensure completion of therapy among urban migrants who move between cities and provinces, and to improve reporting of treatment outcomes.     

EFFECT OF TREE CANOPY REMOVAL BY GYPSY MOTH LARVAE ON THE MACROALGAE OF A RHODE ISLAND HEADWATER STREAM1

A spring-fed, headwater stream in central Rhode Island was examined during the period from June to October, 1979 to 1982. In the first two summers, a dense riparian canopy reduced the light penetration at the stream surface to a range of 5 to 18% of incident radiation. The lotic macroalgal community during this period was limited to 1 to 4 species covering < 1 to 35% of the stream bottom. However, in June and July, 1981, the surrounding leaf canopy was removed by a massive gypsy moth larval outbreak. Light penetration to the stream during this summer increased to 73% by early July, thereby resulting in a rise in water temperatures by 3.7°C. Even though there was a partial regrowth of leaves in late July and August of 1981, macroalgal cover values continued to rise to an early August peak of 80%. During the third summer, 88% of the macroalgal abundance could be attributed to illumination and water temperature. The filamentous diatom Funotia pectinalis ( O.F. Müll.) Rabh. was the predominant species in the midsummer of all four years, accounting for at least 60% of the total cover. In 1981. an important taxon was the desmid Hyalotheca dissiliens (S. Smith) Bréb., a species which was not seen in other years. A less severe gypsy moth defoliation occurred in 1982 but did not produce significant differences in light, temperature or macroalgal cover from 1979 and 1980. The results indicate that light and temperature can be limiting during the summer in spring-fed, headwater streams and that seed populations of some species are present in undetect-able levels during these periods of suboptimal growth conditions. In addition, it appears that stream macroalgal communities can be quite resilient, recovering rapidly following a major perturbation .