Estimating prevalence and test accuracy in disease ecology: How Bayesian latent class analysis can boost or bias imperfect test results

1. Obtaining accurate estimates of disease prevalence is crucial for the monitoring and management of wildlife populations but can be difficult if different diagnostic tests yield conflicting results and if the accuracy of each diagnostic test is unknown. Bayesian latent class analysis (BLCA) modeling offers a potential solution, providing estimates of prevalence levels and diagnostic test accuracy under the realistic assumption that no diagnostic test is perfect.
2. In typical applications of this approach, the specificity of one test is fixed at or close to 100%, allowing the model to simultaneously estimate the sensitivity and specificity of all other tests, in addition to infection prevalence. In wildlife systems, a test with near‐perfect specificity is not always available, so we simulated data to investigate how decreasing this fixed specificity value affects the accuracy of model estimates.
3. We used simulations to explore how the trade‐off between diagnostic test specificity and sensitivity impacts prevalence estimates and found that directional biases depend on pathogen prevalence. Both the precision and accuracy of results depend on the sample size, the diagnostic tests used, and the true infection prevalence, so these factors should be considered when applying BLCA to estimate disease prevalence and diagnostic test accuracy in wildlife systems. A wildlife disease case study, focusing on leptospirosis in California sea lions, demonstrated the potential for Bayesian latent class methods to provide reliable estimates under real‐world conditions.
4. We delineate conditions under which BLCA improves upon the results from a single diagnostic across a range of prevalence levels and sample sizes, demonstrating when this method is preferable for disease ecologists working in a wide variety of pathogen systems.

     

Genetic Screens Identify Host Factors for SARS-CoV-2 and Common Cold Coronaviruses

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Gender differences exist in the hip joint moments of healthy older walkers

Gender differences in the incidence of symptomatic hip osteoarthritis (OA), changes in hip cartilage volume and hip joint space and rates hip arthroplasty of older people are reported in the literature. As the rate of progression of OA is in part mechanically modulated it is possible that this gender bias may be related to inherent differences (if they exist) in walking mechanics between older males and females. The purpose of this study was to examine potential mechanisms for gender differences in hip joint mechanics during walking by testing the hypotheses that females would exhibit higher hip flexion, adduction and internal rotation moments but not significantly greater normalized ground reaction forces (GRFs). Forty-two healthy subjects (21 male, 21 female), ages 50–79 yr were recruited for gait analysis. In support of the hypotheses, greater external hip adduction and internal rotation along with hip extension moments were found for females compared to males after normalizing for body size for all self-selected walking speeds. Differences in walking style (kinematics) were the main determinants in the joint kinetic differences as no differences in the normalized GRFs were found. As external joint moments are surrogate measures of the joint contact forces, the results of this study suggest the hip joint stress for the female population is higher compared to male population. This is in favor of a hypothesis that the increased joint contact stress in a female population could contribute to a greater joint degeneration at the hip in females as compared with males.     

Origin of somatic embryos from repetitively embryogenic cultures of walnut (Juglans regia L.): Implications forAgrobacterium-mediated transformation

Early stages of somatic embryo development from embryogenic cultures ofJuglans regia (Persian or English walnut) are described. Histological examination reveals that secondary somatic embryos arise from cotyledons and hypocotyls of primary embryos cultured in the dark. The embryos originate by transverse to oblique divisions of surface cells. Single-cell origin of the secondary embryos confirms the potential of the repetitive embryogenesis system forAgrobacterium-mediated transformation and regeneration of non-chimeric, transgenic walnut plants.     

Distinct mechanisms of interactions of Opc-expressing meningococci at apical and basolateral surfaces of human endothelial cells; the role of integrins in apical interactions

Interactions of Opc-expressing Neisseria meningitidis with polarized and non-polarized human umbilical vein endothelial cells (Huvecs) were investigated. Metabolic inhibitors and cytochalasin D treatment showed that host cellular and cytoskeletal functions were important for Opc-expressing bacterial association with Huvecs at the apical surface. In addition, this interaction required the presence of serum in the incubation medium whilst association with nonpolarized cells did not require serum. Pre-exposure of Opc-expressing bacteria to serum was sufficient to increase the number of bacterial interactions at the apical surface; B306, a monoclonal antibody (mAb) against Opc, inhibited these interactions, suggesting that Ope binds to serum factor(s) and this in turn increases adherence to Huvecs. The receptors involved in this ‘sandwich’ adherence belong to the integrin family since the interaction was inhibited by peptides containing the amino acid sequence arginine-glycine-aspartic acid (RGD) and the tetrapeptide RGDS (but not the peptide RGES) was inhibitory. Non-polarized cells appeared to expose receptors/sites that bound to Opc-expressing bacteria directly, did not require serum factors and were not inhibited by RGD-containing peptides. Serum-dependent interactions of Opc-expressing bacteria to apical surface was inhibited significantly by severai mAbs against avβ3 integrins. Some mAbs against α5 and β1 caused partial inhibition; antibodies that did not block the function of β1 integrins or the mAbs against α2 integrins were not inhibitory to bacterial interactions with Huvecs. Purified vitronectin supported adherence of Opc-expressing bacteria to Huvecs but not of Opc-bacteria. These interactions were inhibited by mAb B306 against Opc, by RGDS peptides as well as by blocking antibodies directed against αvβ-3 but not antibodies against other integrins. These data suggest that a sequence of molecular events resulting in trimolecular complexes at the endothelial surface may drive neisserial invasion of Huvesc. The expression of Opc appears to enable bacteria to utilize the normal signal-transduction mechanism of host cells via ligands in sera that adhere to endothelial cell integrins.     

A sex-specific test of selection in utero

We find support for the hypothesis that changes in the monthly odds of a twin among live-born males predict subsequent and opposite changes in the odds of a twin among live-born females. The hypothesis arises from the long standing argument that natural selection has conserved mechanisms by which pregnant women in stressed populations spontaneously abort fetuses least likely to yield grandchildren. Previous attempts to empirically test this argument focus almost entirely on males. We contribute to the literature by showing that, consistent with the logic of natural selection, maternal adaptations to environmental changes likely have effects on the survival of both male and female conceptuses and fetuses.     

Primary Succession on a Hawaiian Dryland Chronosequence

We used measurements from airborne imaging spectroscopy and LiDAR to quantify the biophysical structure and composition of vegetation on a dryland substrate age gradient in Hawaii. Both vertical stature and species composition changed during primary succession, and reveal a progressive increase in vertical stature on younger substrates followed by a collapse on Pleistocene-aged flows. Tall-stature Metrosideros polymorpha woodlands dominated on the youngest substrates (hundreds of years), and were replaced by the tall-stature endemic tree species Myoporum sandwicense and Sophora chrysophylla on intermediate-aged flows (thousands of years). The oldest substrates (tens of thousands of years) were dominated by the short-stature native shrub Dodonaea viscosa and endemic grass Eragrostis atropioides. We excavated 18 macroscopic charcoal fragments from Pleistocene-aged substrates. Mean radiocarbon age was 2,002 years and ranged from < 200 to 7,730. Genus identities from four fragments indicate that Osteomeles spp. or M. polymorpha once occupied the Pleistocene-aged substrates, but neither of these species is found there today. These findings indicate the existence of fires before humans are known to have occupied the Hawaiian archipelago, and demonstrate that a collapse in vertical stature is prevalent on the oldest substrates. This work contributes to our understanding of prehistoric fires in shaping the trajectory of primary succession in Hawaiian drylands.