Application of Bayesian evidence synthesis to modelling the effect of ketogenic therapy on survival of high grade glioma patients

Background

Ketogenic therapy in the form of ketogenic diets or calorie restriction has been proposed as a metabolic treatment of high grade glioma (HGG) brain tumors based on mechanistic reasoning obtained mainly from animal experiments. Given the paucity of clinical studies of this relatively new approach, our goal is to extrapolate evidence from the greater number of animal studies and synthesize it with the available human data in order to estimate the expected effects of ketogenic therapy on survival in HGG patients. At the same time we are using this analysis as an example for demonstrating how Bayesianism can be applied in the spirit of a circular view of evidence.

Results

A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed. Data from three human cohort studies and 17 animal experiments were included to estimate the effects of four ketogenic interventions (calorie restriction/ketogenic diets as monotherapy/combination therapy) on the restricted mean survival time ratio in humans using various assumptions for the relationships between humans, rats and mice. The impact of different biological assumptions about the relevance of animal data for humans as well as external information based on mechanistic reasoning or case studies was evaluated by specifying appropriate priors. We provide statistical and philosophical arguments for why our approach is an improvement over existing (frequentist) methods for evidence synthesis as it is able to utilize evidence from a variety of sources. Depending on the prior assumptions, a 30–70% restricted mean survival time prolongation in HGG patients was predicted by the models. The highest probability of a benefit (>?90%) for all four ketogenic interventions was obtained when adopting an enthusiastic prior based on previous case reports together with assuming synergism between ketogenic therapies with other forms of treatment. Combinations with other treatments were generally found more effective than ketogenic monotherapy.

Conclusions

Combining evidence from both human and animal studies is statistically possible using a Bayesian approach. We found an overall survival-prolonging effect of ketogenic therapy in HGG patients. Our approach is best compatible with a circular instead of hierarchical view of evidence and easy to update once more data become available.

     

Effect of Capacity for Care on cat admission trends at the Guelph Humane Society, 2011–2015

In recent years, there has been a growing concern regarding populations of cats who are homeless. Shelters are constantly overwhelmed by the influx of cats without caregivers and are seeking solutions to enhance positive outcomes for them. In 2014, the Guelph Humane Society implemented a population management program to expedite the movement of cats through the shelter by decreasing the average nonhuman animal’s length of stay using scheduled intakes to control for overcrowding and by implementing strategies to increase adoption rates. This study investigated the time trends in admission rates of cats to the Guelph Humane Society to assess the effectiveness of a population management program called Capacity for Care using a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model. From January 2011 to December 2015, a total of 3295 live cats were admitted to the Guelph Humane Society. When the analysis was adjusted to account for admissions of kittens, there was a significant reduction in admissions for adult cats (p < .01) following the introduction of the population management program. The results also showed a strong seasonal peak in total admissions during the summer months.     

Evolutionary responses of aquatic macroinvertebrates to two contrasting flow regimes

Hydrobiologia - Natural disturbances are agents of natural selection that drive multiple biological adaptations along evolutionary time. Frequent, high magnitude disturbances are expected to select...     

The gut microbiota of the pine weevil is similar across Europe and resembles that of other conifer‐feeding beetles

The pine weevil (Hylobius abietis, Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is an important pest of conifer seedlings in Europe. Despite its economic importance, little is known about the composition of its gut microbial community and the role it plays in mediating the weevil's ability to utilize conifers as a food source. Here, we characterized the gut bacterial communities of different populations of H. abietis across Europe and compared them to those of other beetles that occupy similar ecological niches. We demonstrate that the microbial community of H. abietis is similar at higher taxonomic levels (family and genus) across locations in Europe, with Wolbachia as the dominant microbe, followed by Enterobacteria and Firmicutes. Despite this similarity, we observed consistent differences between countries and locations, but not sexes. Our meta‐analysis demonstrates that the gut bacterial community of the pine weevil is very similar to that of bark beetles that also exploit conifers as a food source. The Enterobacteriaceae symbionts of both host taxa are especially closely related phylogenetically. Conversely, the microbiota of H. abietis is distinct from that of closely related weevils feeding on nonconifer food sources, suggesting that the microbial community of the pine weevil is determined by the environment and may be relevant to host ecology. Furthermore, several H. abietis‐associated members of the Enterobacteriaceae family are known to contain genes involved in terpenoid degradation. As such, we hypothesize that the gut microbial community is important for the utilization of conifer seedlings as a food source, either through the detoxification of plant secondary metabolites or through the supplementation of essential nutrients.     

Ontogenetic and spatial variability in trophic biomarkers of juvenile saffron cod (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Eleginus gracilis</Emphasis>) from the Beaufort,Chukchi and Bering Seas

Climate models indicate the Arctic will undergo dramatic environmental change with forecasted increases in temperature and river runoff. Saffron cod (Eleginus gracilis) is abundant in nearshore waters and appears in the diet of many Arctic sea birds and marine mammals; however, little is known about its early ecology and consequently how they might be affected by environmental changes. We aimed to characterize the mechanisms of spatial and ontogenetic variation in trophic biomarkers (lipid classes, fatty acids and bulk C and N stable isotopes) of saffron cod from the Western Arctic, Chukchi and Bering Seas. Size-standardized analyses showed a significant difference in lipid condition metrics and trophic biomarkers as a function of survey location. Both ontogeny and sampling location played an important role in determining lipid stores with elevated levels in both small offshore juveniles (<55 mm) and larger inshore juveniles (>75 mm). Higher lipid storage in Arctic juveniles was associated with elevated levels of diatom fatty acid markers, but not with nearshore carbon input. Increased lipids were found in age-1 juveniles from Prudhoe Bay in the Western Beaufort that were feeding at a lower trophic level than similarly sized age-0 juveniles from surface trawls in the Bering Sea. The use of otolith annuli revealed two discrete patterns of growth that help explain the trade-offs between energy storage and rapid growth that diverge between the Arctic and Bering Sea. Laboratory temperature-growth experiments confirmed that saffron cod have a eurythermal growth response and are able to store excess lipids at temperatures as high as 20 °C.     

IRBAS: An online database to collate,analyze, and synthesize data on the biodiversity and ecology of intermittent rivers worldwide

Key questions dominating contemporary ecological research and management concern interactions between biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and ecosystem services provision in the face of global change. This is particularly salient for freshwater biodiversity and in the context of river drying and flow‐regime change. Rivers that stop flowing and dry, herein intermittent rivers, are globally prevalent and dynamic ecosystems on which the body of research is expanding rapidly, consistent with the era of big data. However, the data encapsulated by this work remain largely fragmented, limiting our ability to answer the key questions beyond a case‐by‐case basis. To this end, the Intermittent River Biodiversity Analysis and Synthesis (IRBAS; http://irbas.cesab.org ) project has collated, analyzed, and synthesized data from across the world on the biodiversity and environmental characteristics of intermittent rivers. The IRBAS database integrates and provides free access to these data, contributing to the growing, and global, knowledge base on these ubiquitous and important river systems, for both theoretical and applied advancement. The IRBAS database currently houses over 2000 data samples collected from six countries across three continents, primarily describing aquatic invertebrate taxa inhabiting intermittent rivers during flowing hydrological phases. As such, there is room to expand the biogeographic and taxonomic coverage, for example, through addition of data collected during nonflowing and dry hydrological phases. We encourage contributions and provide guidance on how to contribute and access data. Ultimately, the IRBAS database serves as a portal, storage, standardization, and discovery tool, enabling collation, synthesis, and analysis of data to elucidate patterns in river biodiversity and guide management. Contribution creates high visibility for datasets, facilitating collaboration. The IRBAS database will grow in content as the study of intermittent rivers continues and data retrieval will allow for networking, meta‐analyses, and testing of generalizations across multiple systems, regions, and taxa.     

High mitochondrial haplotype diversity of Coleps sp. (Ciliophora: Prostomatida)

To date the awareness of the temporal population structure in eukaryotic microbes is very limited. This is exemplified in the scarce knowledge about the intraspecific genetic variation in ciliates. To elucidate the genetic variation of Coleps (Ciliophora: Prostomatida), we employed the analysis of the mitochondrial apocytochrome b gene of the Coleps community in a young lake in Germany. The analysis of 111 isolates, sampled from April 2005 to September 2006, revealed a high genetic variation for the two dominant Coleps species (11 mitochondrial haplotypes in Coleps spetai , nine in Coleps hirtus hirtus ). The study represents one of the largest datasets of intraspecific diversity in a microbial eukaryote and demonstrates for the first time the suitability of a mitochondrial gene for the detection of genetic variation within populations of eukaryotic microbes. However, the results of our study warrant caution in the application of such an approach, as we amplified some non-orthologous cob -like sequences, whose uncritical acceptance would have led to the erroneous discovery of cryptic species.     

The histone variant macro-H2A preferentially forms "hybrid nucleosomes"

The histone domain of macro-H2A, which constitutes the N-terminal one third of this histone variant, is only 64% identical to major H2A. We have shown previously that the main structural differences in a nucleosome in which both H2A moieties have been replaced by macro-H2A reside in the only point of contact between the two histone dimers, the L1-L1 interface of macro-H2A. Here we show that the L1 loop of macro-H2A is responsible for the increased salt-dependent stability of the histone octamer, with implications for the nucleosome assembly pathway. It is unknown whether only one or both of the H2A-H2B dimers within a nucleosome are replaced with H2A variant containing nucleosomes in vivo. We demonstrate that macro-H2A preferentially forms hybrid nucleosomes containing one chain each of major H2A and macro-HA in vitro. The 2.9-A crystal structure of such a hybrid nucleosome shows significant structural differences in the L1-L1 interface when comparing with homotypic major H2A- and macro-H2A-containing nucleosomes. Both homotypic and hybrid macro-nucleosome core particles (NCPs) are resistant to chaperone-assisted H2A-H2B dimer exchange. Together, our findings suggest that the histone domain of macro-H2A modifies the dynamic properties of the nucleosome. We propose that the possibility of forming hybrid macro-NCP adds yet another level of complexity to variant nucleosome structure and function.     

Imaging immune surveillance of individual natural killer cells confined in microwell arrays

New markers are constantly emerging that identify smaller and smaller subpopulations of immune cells. However, there is a growing awareness that even within very small populations, there is a marked functional heterogeneity and that measurements at the population level only gives an average estimate of the behaviour of that pool of cells. New techniques to analyze single immune cells over time are needed to overcome this limitation. For that purpose, we have designed and evaluated microwell array systems made from two materials, polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) and silicon, for high-resolution imaging of individual natural killer (NK) cell responses. Both materials were suitable for short-term studies (<4 hours) but only silicon wells allowed long-term studies (several days). Time-lapse imaging of NK cell cytotoxicity in these microwell arrays revealed that roughly 30% of the target cells died much more rapidly than the rest upon NK cell encounter. This unexpected heterogeneity may reflect either separate mechanisms of killing or different killing efficiency by individual NK cells. Furthermore, we show that high-resolution imaging of inhibitory synapse formation, defined by clustering of MHC class I at the interface between NK and target cells, is possible in these microwells. We conclude that live cell imaging of NK-target cell interactions in multi-well microstructures are possible. The technique enables novel types of assays and allow data collection at a level of resolution not previously obtained. Furthermore, due to the large number of wells that can be simultaneously imaged, new statistical information is obtained that will lead to a better understanding of the function and regulation of the immune system at the single cell level.     

The fetal programming effect of prenatal smoking on Igf1r and Igf1 methylation is organ- and sex-specific

The impact of prenatal smoke exposure (PSE) on DNA methylation has been demonstrated in blood samples from children of smoking mothers, but evidence for sex-dependent smoke-induced effects is limited. As the identified differentially methylated genes can be associated with developmental processes, and insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) play a critical role in prenatal tissue growth, we hypothesized that PSE induces fetal programming of Igf1r and Igf1. Using a mouse model of smoking during pregnancy, we show that PSE alters promoter methylation of Igf1r and Igf1 and deregulates their gene expression in lung and liver of fetal (E17.5) and neonatal (D3) mouse offspring. By further comparing female versus male, lung versus liver, or fetal versus neonatal time point, our results demonstrate that CpG site-specific aberrant methylation patterns sex-dependently vary per organ and time point. Moreover, PSE reduces gene expression of Igf1r and Igf1, dependent on organ, sex, and offspring's age. Our results indicate that PSE may be a source of organ-specific rather than general systemic fetal programming. This is exemplified here by gene promoter methylation and mRNA levels of Igf1r and Igf1, together with a sex- and organ-specific naturally established correlation of both parameters that is affected by prenatal smoke exposure. Moreover, the comparison of fetuses with neonates suggests a CpG site-dependent reversibility/persistence of PSE-induced differential methylation patterns.