Pneumococcal Transmission and Disease In Silico: A Microsimulation Model of the Indirect Effects of Vaccination

Background

The degree and time frame of indirect effects of vaccination (serotype replacement and herd immunity) are key determinants in assessing the net effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in control of pneumococcal disease. Using modelling, we aimed to quantify these effects and their dependence on coverage of vaccination and the vaccine''s efficacy against susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage.

Methods and Findings

We constructed an individual-based simulation model that explores the effects of large-scale PCV programmes and applied it in a developed country setting (Finland). A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups (families, day care groups, schools and neighbourhoods) was considered in order to properly assess the dependency of herd immunity on coverage of vaccination and vaccine efficacy against carriage. Issues regarding potential serotype replacement were addressed by employing a novel competition structure between multiple pneumococcal serotypes. Model parameters were calibrated from pre-vaccination data about the age-specific carriage prevalence and serotype distribution. The model predicts that elimination of vaccine-type carriage and disease among those vaccinated and, due to a substantial herd effect, also among the general population takes place within 5–10 years since the onset of a PCV programme with high (90%) coverage of vaccination and moderate (50%) vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage. A near-complete replacement of vaccine-type carriage by non-vaccine-type carriage occurs within the same time frame.

Conclusions

The changed patterns in pneumococcal carriage after PCV vaccination predicted by the model are unequivocal. The overall effect on disease incidence depends crucially on the magnitude of age- and serotype-specific case-to-carrier ratios of the remaining serotypes relative to those of the vaccine types. Thus the availability of reliable data on the incidence of both pneumococcal carriage and disease is essential in assessing the net effectiveness of PCV vaccination in a given epidemiological setting.     

Revealing the True Incidence of Pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza in Finland during the First Two Seasons — An Analysis Based on a Dynamic Transmission Model

The threat of the new pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 imposed a heavy burden on the public health system in Finland in 2009-2010. An extensive vaccination campaign was set up in the middle of the first pandemic season. However, the true number of infected individuals remains uncertain as the surveillance missed a large portion of mild infections. We constructed a transmission model to simulate the spread of influenza in the Finnish population. We used the model to analyse the two first years (2009-2011) of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Finland. Using data from the national surveillance of influenza and data on close person-to-person (social) contacts in the population, we estimated that 6% (90% credible interval 5.1 – 6.7%) of the population was infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 in the first pandemic season (2009/2010) and an additional 3% (2.5 – 3.5%) in the second season (2010/2011). Vaccination had a substantial impact in mitigating the second season. The dynamic approach allowed us to discover how the proportion of detected cases changed over the course of the epidemic. The role of time-varying reproduction number, capturing the effects of weather and changes in behaviour, was important in shaping the epidemic.     

Experimental warming increases herbivory by leaf‐chewing insects in an alpine plant community

Climate warming is predicted to affect species and trophic interactions worldwide, and alpine ecosystems are expected to be especially sensitive to changes. In this study, we used two ongoing climate warming (open‐top chambers) experiments at Finse, southern Norway, to examine whether warming had an effect on herbivory by leaf‐chewing insects in an alpine Dryas heath community. We recorded feeding marks on the most common vascular plant species in warmed and control plots at two experimental sites at different elevations and carried out a brief inventory of insect herbivores. Experimental warming increased herbivory on Dryas octopetala and Bistorta vivipara. Dryas octopetala also experienced increased herbivory at the lower and warmer site, indicating an overall positive effect of warming, whereas B. vivipara experienced an increased herbivory at the colder and higher site indicating a mixed effect of warming. The Lepidoptera Zygaena exulans and Sympistis nigrita were the two most common leaf‐chewing insects in the Dryas heath. Based on the observed patterns of herbivory, the insects life cycles and feeding preferences, we argue that Z. exulans is the most important herbivore on B. vivipara, and S. nigrita the most important herbivore on D. octopetala. We conclude that if the degree of insect herbivory increases in a warmer world, as suggested by this study and others, complex interactions between plants, insects, and site‐specific conditions make it hard to predict overall effects on plant communities.     

Surveillance of the Sensitivity towards Antiparasitic Bath-Treatments in the Salmon Louse (Lepeophtheirus salmonis)

The evolution of drug resistant parasitic sea lice is of major concern to the salmon farming industry worldwide and challenges sustainable growth of this enterprise. To assess current status and development of L. salmonis sensitivity towards different pesticides used for parasite control in Norwegian salmon farming, a national surveillance programme was implemented in 2013. The programme aims to summarize data on the use of different pesticides applied to control L. salmonis and to test L. salmonis sensitivity to different pesticides in farms along the Norwegian coast. Here we analyse two years of test-data from biological assays designed to detect sensitivity-levels towards the pesticides azamethiphos and deltamethrin, both among the most common pesticides used in bath-treatments of farmed salmon in Norway in later years. The focus of the analysis is on how different variables predict the binomial outcome of the bioassay tests, being whether L. salmonis are immobilized/die or survive pesticide exposure. We found that local kernel densities of bath treatments, along with a spatial geographic index of test-farm locations, were significant predictors of the binomial outcome of the tests. Furthermore, the probability of L. salmonis being immobilized/dead after test-exposure was reduced by odds-ratios of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.42–0.86) for 2014 compared to 2013 and 0.39 (95% CI: 0.36–0.42) for low concentration compared to high concentration exposure. There were also significant but more marginal effects of parasite gender and developmental stage, and a relatively large random effect of test-farm. We conclude that the present data support an association between local intensities of bath treatments along the coast and the outcome of bioassay tests where salmon lice are exposed to azamethiphos or deltamethrin. Furthermore, there is a predictable structure of L. salmonis phenotypes along the coast in the data, characterized by high susceptibility to pesticides in the far north and far south, but low susceptibility in mid Norway. The study emphasizes the need to address local susceptibility to pesticides and the need for restrictive use of pesticides to preserve treatment efficacy.     

Evidence of Inbreeding in Hodgkin Lymphoma

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified several, mainly co-dominantly acting, single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). We searched for recessively acting disease loci by performing an analysis of runs of homozygosity (ROH) based on windows of homozygous SNP-blocks and by calculating genomic inbreeding coefficients on a SNP-wise basis. We used data from a previous GWAS with 906 cases and 1217 controls from a population with a long history of no matings between relatives. Ten recurrent ROHs were identified among 25 055 ROHs across all individuals but their association with HL was not genome-wide significant. All recurrent ROHs showed significant evidence for natural selection. As a novel finding genomic inbreeding among cases was significantly higher than among controls (P = 2.11*10⁻¹⁴) even after correcting for covariates. Higher inbreeding among the cases was mainly based on a group of individuals with a higher average length of ROHs per person. This result suggests a correlation of higher levels of inbreeding with higher cancer incidence and might reflect the existence of recessive alleles causing HL. Genomic inbreeding may result in a higher expression of deleterious recessive genes within a population.     

Seed banks are biodiversity reservoirs: species–area relationships above versus below ground

Soil seed banks offer plants the possibility to disperse through time. This has implications for population and community dynamics, as recognised by ecological and evolutionary theory. In contrast, the conservation and restoration literature often find seed banks to be depauperate, weedy and without much conservation value or restoration potential. One explanation for these contrasting views might lie in a systematic bias in the sampling of seed banks versus established plant communities. We use the species–area relationship as a tool to assess and compare the per‐area species richness and spatial structuring of the diversity of the established plant community versus soil seed banks. To allow this direct comparison we extensively survey the species–area relationship of the vegetation and underlying seed bank of a grassland community across twelve sites spanning regional bioclimatic gradients. We also compile a global dataset of established vegetation and seed banks from published sources. We find that seed banks have consistently higher intercepts and slopes of the relationship, and hence higher diversity at any given spatial scale, than the vegetation both in the field and literature study. This is consistent across habitat types, climate gradients, and biomes. Similarity indices are commonly used to compare vegetation and seed bank, and we find that sampling effort (% of the vegetation area sampled for seed bank) was the strongest predictor of vegetation–seed bank similarity for both the Sørensen (R² = 0.70) and the Raup–Crick (R² = 0.25) index. Our study suggests that the perception that seed banks are intrinsically less diverse than established plant communities has been based more on inadequate sampling than on biological reality. Across a range of ecosystems and climatic settings, we find high diversity in seed banks relative to the established community, suggesting potentially important roles of seed banks in population dynamics and diversity maintenance.     

Influence of fire and mechanical sagebrush reduction treatments on restoration seedings in Utah,United States

Overabundance of woody plants in semiarid ecosystems can degrade understory herbaceous vegetation and often requires shrub reduction and seeding to recover ecosystem services. We used meta‐analysis techniques to assess the effects of fire and mechanical shrub reduction over two post‐treatment timeframes (1–4 and 5–10 years) on changes in cover and frequency of 15 seeded species at 63 restoration sites with high potential for recovery. Compared to mechanical treatments, fire resulted in greater increases in seeded species. Native shrubs did not increase, and forbs generally declined over time; however, large increases in perennial grasses were observed, suggesting that seeding efforts contributed to enhanced understory herbaceous conditions. We found greater increases in a few non‐native species than native species across all treatments, suggesting the possibility that interference among seeded species may have influenced results of this regional assessment. Differences among treatments and species were likely driven by seedbed conditions, which should be carefully considered in restoration planning. Site characteristics also dictated seeded species responses: while forbs showed greater increases in cover over the long term at higher elevation sites considered to be more resilient to disturbance, surprisingly, shrubs and grasses had greater increases in cover and frequency at lower elevation sites where resilience is typically much lower. Further research is needed to understand the causes of forb mortality over time, and to decipher how greater increases of non‐native relative to native seeded species will influence species diversity and successional trajectories of restoration sites.     

Loss of assembly of the main basement membrane collagen, type IV, but not fibril-forming collagens and embryonic death in collagen prolyl 4-hydroxylase I null mice

Collagen prolyl 4-hydroxylases (C-P4Hs) catalyze the formation of the 4-hydroxyproline residues that are essential for the generation of triple helical collagen molecules. The vertebrate C-P4Hs I, II, and III are [alpha(I)]2beta2, [alpha(II)]2beta2, and [alpha(III)]2beta2 tetramers with identical beta subunits. We generated mice with targeted inactivation of the P4ha1 gene encoding the catalytic alpha subunit of C-P4H I to analyze its specific functions. The null mice died after E10.5, showing an overall developmental delay and a dilated endoplasmic reticulum in their cells. The capillary walls were frequently ruptured, but the capillary density remained unchanged. The C-P4H activity level in the null embryos and fibroblasts cultured from them was 20% of that in the wild type, being evidently due to the other two isoenzymes. Collagen IV immunofluorescence was almost absent in the basement membranes of the null embryos, and electron microscopy revealed disrupted basement membranes, while immunoelectron microscopy showed a lack of collagen IV in them. The amount of soluble collagen IV was increased in the null embryos and cultured null fibroblasts, indicating a lack of assembly of collagen IV molecules into insoluble structures, probably due to their underhydroxylation and hence abnormal conformation. In contrast, the null embryos had collagen I and III fibrils with a typical cross-striation pattern but slightly increased diameters, and the null fibroblasts secreted fibril-forming collagens, although less efficiently than wild-type cells. The primary cause of death of the null embryos was thus most likely an abnormal assembly of collagen IV.