Environmental correlates of annual survival differ between two ecologically similar and congeneric owls

Understanding how survival is affected by the environment is essential to gain insight into population dynamics and the evolution of life‐history traits as well as to identify environmental selection pressures. However, we still have little understanding of the relative effect of different environmental factors and their interactions on demographic traits and population dynamics. Here we used two long‐term, individual‐based datasets on Tawny Owl Strix aluco (1981–2010) and Ural Owl S. uralensis (1986–2010) to undertake capture‐mark‐recapture analysis of annual survival of adult females in response to three biologically meaningful environmental variables and their two‐way interactions. Despite the similar ecology of these two species, their survival was associated with different and uncorrelated environmental drivers. The main correlate of Tawny Owl survival was an inverse association with snow depth (winter severity). For Ural Owl, high food (vole) abundance improved survival during years with deep snow, but was less important during years with little snow. In addition, Ural Owl survival was strongly density‐dependent, whereas Tawny Owl survival was not. Our findings advise caution in extrapolating demographic inferences from one species to another, even when they are very closely related and ecologically similar. Analyses including only one or few potential environmental drivers of a species' survival may lead to incomplete conclusions because survival may be affected by several factors and their interactions.     

Brown tawny owls moult more flight feathers than grey ones

The mechanisms by which melanin‐based colour polymorphism can evolve and be maintained in wild populations are poorly known. Theory predicts that colour morphs have differential sensitivity to environmental conditions. Recently it has been proposed that colour polymorphism covaries genetically with intrinsic and behavioural properties. Plumage moult is a costly and crucial somatic maintenance function in birds. We used a long‐term data set consisting of 761 observations on 307 individuals captured between 1985 and 2010 to examine differences in partial flight feather moult between grey (pale) and brown (pheomelanic dark) colour morphs of the tawny owl. We find that the brown morph consistently moult more primary flight feathers than the grey morph whereas there is no clear difference between colour morphs in the moulting of secondary feathers. Contrary to expectations, the difference in the number of moulted flight feathers between the morphs was independent of environmental conditions, as quantified by the abundance of prey. We discuss the potential physiological and behavioural causes for and costs of the observed difference in maintenance functions between colour morphs.     

Arctic Small Rodents Have Diverse Diets and Flexible Food Selection

The ecology of small rodent food selection is poorly understood, as mammalian herbivore food selection theory has mainly been developed by studying ungulates. Especially, the effect of food availability on food selection in natural habitats where a range of food items are available is unknown. We studied diets and selectivity of grey-sided voles (Myodes rufocanus) and tundra voles (Microtus oeconomus), key herbivores in European tundra ecosystems, using DNA metabarcoding, a novel method enabling taxonomically detailed diet studies. In order to cover the range of food availabilities present in the wild, we employed a large-scale study design for sampling data on food availability and vole diets. Both vole species had ingested a range of plant species and selected particularly forbs and grasses. Grey-sided voles also selected ericoid shrubs and tundra voles willows. Availability of a food item rarely affected its utilization directly, although seasonal changes of diets and selection suggest that these are positively correlated with availability. Moreover, diets and selectivity were affected by availability of alternative food items. These results show that the focal sub-arctic voles have diverse diets and flexible food preferences and rarely compensate low availability of a food item with increased searching effort. Diet diversity itself is likely to be an important trait and has previously been underrated owing to methodological constraints. We suggest that the roles of alternative food item availability and search time limitations for small rodent feeding ecology should be investigated.

Nomenclature

Annotated Checklist of the Panarctic Flora (PAF), Vascular plants. Available at: http://nhm2.uio.no/paf/, accessed 15.6.2012.     

Pneumococcal Transmission and Disease In Silico: A Microsimulation Model of the Indirect Effects of Vaccination

Background

The degree and time frame of indirect effects of vaccination (serotype replacement and herd immunity) are key determinants in assessing the net effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in control of pneumococcal disease. Using modelling, we aimed to quantify these effects and their dependence on coverage of vaccination and the vaccine''s efficacy against susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage.

Methods and Findings

We constructed an individual-based simulation model that explores the effects of large-scale PCV programmes and applied it in a developed country setting (Finland). A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups (families, day care groups, schools and neighbourhoods) was considered in order to properly assess the dependency of herd immunity on coverage of vaccination and vaccine efficacy against carriage. Issues regarding potential serotype replacement were addressed by employing a novel competition structure between multiple pneumococcal serotypes. Model parameters were calibrated from pre-vaccination data about the age-specific carriage prevalence and serotype distribution. The model predicts that elimination of vaccine-type carriage and disease among those vaccinated and, due to a substantial herd effect, also among the general population takes place within 5–10 years since the onset of a PCV programme with high (90%) coverage of vaccination and moderate (50%) vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage. A near-complete replacement of vaccine-type carriage by non-vaccine-type carriage occurs within the same time frame.

Conclusions

The changed patterns in pneumococcal carriage after PCV vaccination predicted by the model are unequivocal. The overall effect on disease incidence depends crucially on the magnitude of age- and serotype-specific case-to-carrier ratios of the remaining serotypes relative to those of the vaccine types. Thus the availability of reliable data on the incidence of both pneumococcal carriage and disease is essential in assessing the net effectiveness of PCV vaccination in a given epidemiological setting.     

Revealing the True Incidence of Pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza in Finland during the First Two Seasons — An Analysis Based on a Dynamic Transmission Model

The threat of the new pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 imposed a heavy burden on the public health system in Finland in 2009-2010. An extensive vaccination campaign was set up in the middle of the first pandemic season. However, the true number of infected individuals remains uncertain as the surveillance missed a large portion of mild infections. We constructed a transmission model to simulate the spread of influenza in the Finnish population. We used the model to analyse the two first years (2009-2011) of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Finland. Using data from the national surveillance of influenza and data on close person-to-person (social) contacts in the population, we estimated that 6% (90% credible interval 5.1 – 6.7%) of the population was infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 in the first pandemic season (2009/2010) and an additional 3% (2.5 – 3.5%) in the second season (2010/2011). Vaccination had a substantial impact in mitigating the second season. The dynamic approach allowed us to discover how the proportion of detected cases changed over the course of the epidemic. The role of time-varying reproduction number, capturing the effects of weather and changes in behaviour, was important in shaping the epidemic.     

Experimental warming increases herbivory by leaf‐chewing insects in an alpine plant community

Climate warming is predicted to affect species and trophic interactions worldwide, and alpine ecosystems are expected to be especially sensitive to changes. In this study, we used two ongoing climate warming (open‐top chambers) experiments at Finse, southern Norway, to examine whether warming had an effect on herbivory by leaf‐chewing insects in an alpine Dryas heath community. We recorded feeding marks on the most common vascular plant species in warmed and control plots at two experimental sites at different elevations and carried out a brief inventory of insect herbivores. Experimental warming increased herbivory on Dryas octopetala and Bistorta vivipara. Dryas octopetala also experienced increased herbivory at the lower and warmer site, indicating an overall positive effect of warming, whereas B. vivipara experienced an increased herbivory at the colder and higher site indicating a mixed effect of warming. The Lepidoptera Zygaena exulans and Sympistis nigrita were the two most common leaf‐chewing insects in the Dryas heath. Based on the observed patterns of herbivory, the insects life cycles and feeding preferences, we argue that Z. exulans is the most important herbivore on B. vivipara, and S. nigrita the most important herbivore on D. octopetala. We conclude that if the degree of insect herbivory increases in a warmer world, as suggested by this study and others, complex interactions between plants, insects, and site‐specific conditions make it hard to predict overall effects on plant communities.     

Surveillance of the Sensitivity towards Antiparasitic Bath-Treatments in the Salmon Louse (Lepeophtheirus salmonis)

The evolution of drug resistant parasitic sea lice is of major concern to the salmon farming industry worldwide and challenges sustainable growth of this enterprise. To assess current status and development of L. salmonis sensitivity towards different pesticides used for parasite control in Norwegian salmon farming, a national surveillance programme was implemented in 2013. The programme aims to summarize data on the use of different pesticides applied to control L. salmonis and to test L. salmonis sensitivity to different pesticides in farms along the Norwegian coast. Here we analyse two years of test-data from biological assays designed to detect sensitivity-levels towards the pesticides azamethiphos and deltamethrin, both among the most common pesticides used in bath-treatments of farmed salmon in Norway in later years. The focus of the analysis is on how different variables predict the binomial outcome of the bioassay tests, being whether L. salmonis are immobilized/die or survive pesticide exposure. We found that local kernel densities of bath treatments, along with a spatial geographic index of test-farm locations, were significant predictors of the binomial outcome of the tests. Furthermore, the probability of L. salmonis being immobilized/dead after test-exposure was reduced by odds-ratios of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.42–0.86) for 2014 compared to 2013 and 0.39 (95% CI: 0.36–0.42) for low concentration compared to high concentration exposure. There were also significant but more marginal effects of parasite gender and developmental stage, and a relatively large random effect of test-farm. We conclude that the present data support an association between local intensities of bath treatments along the coast and the outcome of bioassay tests where salmon lice are exposed to azamethiphos or deltamethrin. Furthermore, there is a predictable structure of L. salmonis phenotypes along the coast in the data, characterized by high susceptibility to pesticides in the far north and far south, but low susceptibility in mid Norway. The study emphasizes the need to address local susceptibility to pesticides and the need for restrictive use of pesticides to preserve treatment efficacy.     

Evidence of Inbreeding in Hodgkin Lymphoma

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified several, mainly co-dominantly acting, single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). We searched for recessively acting disease loci by performing an analysis of runs of homozygosity (ROH) based on windows of homozygous SNP-blocks and by calculating genomic inbreeding coefficients on a SNP-wise basis. We used data from a previous GWAS with 906 cases and 1217 controls from a population with a long history of no matings between relatives. Ten recurrent ROHs were identified among 25 055 ROHs across all individuals but their association with HL was not genome-wide significant. All recurrent ROHs showed significant evidence for natural selection. As a novel finding genomic inbreeding among cases was significantly higher than among controls (P = 2.11*10⁻¹⁴) even after correcting for covariates. Higher inbreeding among the cases was mainly based on a group of individuals with a higher average length of ROHs per person. This result suggests a correlation of higher levels of inbreeding with higher cancer incidence and might reflect the existence of recessive alleles causing HL. Genomic inbreeding may result in a higher expression of deleterious recessive genes within a population.